{"id":870,"date":"2009-06-16T10:11:08","date_gmt":"2009-06-16T07:11:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=870"},"modified":"2024-03-08T10:17:48","modified_gmt":"2024-03-08T07:17:48","slug":"secim-sonrasinda-ahmedinejad-degisir-mi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=870","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda Ahmedinejad de\u011fi\u015fir mi? (16.06.2009) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran’da 12 Haziran Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ilk turunda oylar\u0131n %63’\u00fcn\u00fc alan Mahmud Ahmedinejad, %32 oy alan en yak\u0131n takip\u00e7isi Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi’nin a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer alarak ikinci kez cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 makam\u0131na geldi. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran, Ortado\u011fu ve uluslararas\u0131 sistem a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli baz\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 olabilir. Se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda dile getirilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan sonra Tahran’da ya\u015fanan Ahmedinejad kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 g\u00f6sterileri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurdu\u011fumuzda \u0130ran’\u0131n 1979’taki devrimden 30 y\u0131l sonra \u00f6nemli bir kav\u015fak noktas\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylememiz m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u0130ran’\u0131n mutlaka s\u00fcratli bir reform s\u00fcreci ya\u015famas\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 camiadan d\u0131\u015flanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderilmesi gerekti\u011fini ifade eden Musavi’nin \u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden oy almas\u0131, halk\u0131n en az \u00fc\u00e7te birinin sadece Ahmedinejad’\u0131 de\u011fil, \u0130ran’\u0131n mevcut sert rejimini de istemedi\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00d6zellikle siyasal ve sosyal hayatta maruz kald\u0131klar\u0131 ayr\u0131mc\u0131 uygulamalardan art\u0131k bir an \u00f6nce kurtulmak isteyen kad\u0131nlar\u0131n se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar aktif bir \u015fekilde yer almalar\u0131 not edilmesi gereken \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmedir. \u0130\u015e\u0130 KOLAY DE\u011e\u0130L <\/strong>Musavi’nin se\u00e7imlerde hile ve usuls\u00fczl\u00fckler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve Musavi destek\u00e7ileriyle g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, \u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetindeki \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde de devam edece\u011finin i\u015faretleri olarak yorumlanabilir. Bu noktada, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ahmedinejad iki \u015fey yapabilir. Birincisi, rakibinden iki kat fazla oy alm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n vermi\u015f oldu\u011fu \u00f6zg\u00fcvenle hareket ederek, Musavi yanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine sert bi\u00e7imde gidebilir. Bu ise, \u0130ran’da rejim tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 so\u011futmayacak, tam tersine daha da alevlendirecektir. \u0130kinci ihtimal ise Ahmedinejad’\u0131n muhalifleri de kucaklayacak, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir siyaset izlemesi, reform beklentisi i\u00e7inde olanlar\u0131n isteklerini zamana yaymak suretiyle kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131d\u0131r. Ahmedinejad’\u0131n asl\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir siyasi lider olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, mevcut rejimin aynen devam etmesinden yana olan muhafazak\u00e2r bir ittifak\u0131n ve dini lider Ali Hamaney’in s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc konumunda bulundu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ikinci ihtimalin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin \u00e7ok da kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Di\u011fer yandan, Ahmedinejad’\u0131n \u00fclke i\u00e7inde daha b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015ftirici ve kucaklay\u0131c\u0131 bir pozisyon tak\u0131nmas\u0131, \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131na da do\u011frudan yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Zannedilenin aksine, Musavi’nin cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesi \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail’le daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ili\u015fkiler kurmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mayacakt\u0131. Zira Musavi ataca\u011f\u0131 her ad\u0131mda, dini liderin muhalefetiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalma riskini ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131. Muhafazak\u00e2r kesimlerin deste\u011finden mahrum ve \u0130ran silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc tam olarak elinde bulunduramayan bir cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi gibi y\u00f6nlendiremeyecekti. H\u00e2lbuki Ahmedinejad’\u0131n Hamaney’in de onay\u0131n\u0131 alarak uluslararas\u0131 alanda i\u015fbirli\u011fine a\u00e7\u0131k bir politikay\u0131 benimsemesi daha kolay olacakt\u0131r. ABD ve \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak bir s\u00f6ylem tak\u0131n\u0131rsa, bunun sebeplerini rejim yanl\u0131s\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2rlara, Musavi’den \u00e7ok daha rahat a\u00e7\u0131klayabilecektir. Unutmayal\u0131m ki, Orta Do\u011fu’da k\u00f6kl\u00fc politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin, yeni isimlerce de\u011fil, bizzat eski politikalar\u0131n takip\u00e7ilerince yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda somut neticelerin al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n pek \u00e7ok \u00f6rne\u011fi vard\u0131r. Mesela, 1978’de Camp David anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 imzalayanlar, daha \u00f6nce birbirleriyle sava\u015f alan\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelen Enver Sedat ve Menahem Begin’di. 1993’te Oslo Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131 imzalayanlar ise, y\u0131llarca birbirlerini yok etmek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele eden Yaser Arafat ve \u0130zak Rabin’di. \u0130ran se\u00e7imlerinin dikkatlerimize sundu\u011fu \u00e7ok \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir di\u011fer tablo da, \u0130ran toplumunda bug\u00fcne kadar varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 rejim savunucular\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan hep ink\u00e2r edilen etnik ayr\u0131\u015fma potansiyelinin su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131d\u0131r. Nitekim \u0130ran Azerbaycan\u0131’nda do\u011fan bir T\u00fcrk olan Musavi, \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu T\u00fcrklerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu kentlerin tamam\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek bulmu\u015ftur. Tebriz’de Ahmedinejad’\u0131n %57 oy alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu resmi olarak a\u00e7\u0131klansa da, Musavi taraftarlar\u0131 bunun tamamen ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu iddia etmektedirler. Di\u011fer bir reformcu aday Luristan do\u011fumlu Mehdi Karubi ise \u00f6zellikle Lur\u00eelerden oy alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. ETN\u0130K \u00c7ATI\u015eMA \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130 <\/strong>Ahmedinejad’\u0131n T\u00fcrkleri hedef alan baz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s 2007’de Tebriz’de \u00e7ok geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 g\u00f6sterilerle protesto edildi\u011fi hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015eia m\u00fc\u015fterek paydas\u0131nda bir araya geldi\u011fi ifade edilen T\u00fcrkler ve Fars\u00eeler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi ayr\u0131m\u0131n bu se\u00e7imlerden sonra daha da belirginle\u015febilece\u011fi analizi yap\u0131labilir. Bu ise, Bill Clinton d\u00f6neminde ABD taraf\u0131ndan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan “\u0130ran’da etnik farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u0131karma” politikas\u0131n\u0131n Obama d\u00f6neminde tekrar g\u00fcndeme getirilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. \u0130stanbul ve Kahire konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u0130ran’la diyalo\u011fa haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veren ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Obama, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 se\u00e7imlerden galip \u00e7\u0131kan Ahmedinejad’\u0131n ABD ve \u0130srail’e dair ne gibi mesajlar verece\u011fini dikkatle izlemektedir. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131’n\u0131n i\u015fbirli\u011fine a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu hissettirecek bir tav\u0131r tak\u0131nmamas\u0131 halinde, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131’n\u0131n da mevcut \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 tutumundan vazge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini ve kendisinden \u00f6nceki ba\u015fkanlar gibi \u0130ran’da rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u011fmeye basabilece\u011fini unutmamak gerekir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda ABD’nin \u0130ran politikas\u0131n\u0131n temel dayana\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran T\u00fcrkleri olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu ise, T\u00fcrklerin sonucunun ne olaca\u011f\u0131 belli olmayan bir maceraya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmelerine yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrkiye, kom\u015fu bir \u00fclkenin i\u00e7i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015fmama \u015feklinde bug\u00fcne kadar takip etti\u011fi hassas siyaseti devam ettirirken, \u0130ran T\u00fcrklerinin b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan tehlikeli bir y\u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmelerinin de \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ecek a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar i\u00e7inde olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ran’da 12 Haziran Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ilk turunda oylar\u0131n %63’\u00fcn\u00fc alan Mahmud Ahmedinejad, %32 oy alan en yak\u0131n takip\u00e7isi Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi’nin a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer alarak ikinci kez cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 makam\u0131na geldi. Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran, Ortado\u011fu ve uluslararas\u0131 sistem a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli baz\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 olabilir. Se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda dile getirilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=870"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/870\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}