Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00f6lgemizi ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkilemeye devam ediyor. Rusya’n\u0131n tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmesi endi\u015feleri daha da derinle\u015ftirdi. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin’le yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde konunun ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Putin’in T\u00fcrkiye’ye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi ziyaret s\u0131ras\u0131nda da tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirece\u011fini biliyoruz. Krizin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana, Rusya’yla pozitif diyalo\u011fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcren ama ayn\u0131 zamanda Ukrayna’yla da kom\u015fuluk hukuku \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde iyi ili\u015fkiler kurabilen tek \u00fclke olarak T\u00fcrkiye’nin tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki gayretlerinin Moskova’da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek bir ihtimal. Bununla birlikte sava\u015ftan kaynaklanan bir\u00e7ok ba\u015fka problemin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc \u015fu an i\u00e7in m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
18 ay\u0131n\u0131 dolduran sava\u015fta ka\u00e7 ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011finin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir istatisti\u011fi tutulmuyor. Farkl\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 kaynaklarda \u015eubat 2022’de sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnden bu yana Rusya’n\u0131n -paral\u0131 askerler ve milis gruplar\u0131 d\u00e2hil- kayb\u0131n\u0131n 50 binden fazla \u00f6l\u00fc ve 150 binden fazla yaral\u0131 \u015feklinde oldu\u011fu iddia ediliyor. Ayn\u0131 kaynaklara g\u00f6re Ukrayna’n\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131 ise ez az 20 bin \u00f6l\u00fc, 130 bin yaral\u0131 \u015feklinde. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu Ukrayna’dan olmak \u00fczere her iki taraftan sivil kay\u0131plar\u0131n ise 50 binin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Medya organlar\u0131nda ilk g\u00fcnlerdeki kadar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmasa da sava\u015f t\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131yla s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Dahas\u0131, daha evvel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fanmayan b\u00f6lgelere do\u011fru yay\u0131lma emareleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bilhassa Karadeniz limanlar\u0131n\u0131n ve b\u00f6lgedeki sava\u015f gemilerinin taraflarca daha s\u0131kl\u0131kla hedef al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Taktik n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n, “bir se\u00e7enek” olarak masada durdu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, \u00fcrpertici bir seviyeye t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi ihtimalini olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u00fczy\u0131lda ya\u015fanan iki d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l ba\u015flay\u0131p birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dersler var. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki sert rekabetin, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l bitmeden eninde sonunda s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi sonucuna varan bilimsel ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131n yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, Moskova-Beijing aras\u0131nda bir asker\u00ee ittifak kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan giri\u015fimler dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6z\u00fc itibar\u0131yla ABD ile \u00c7in rekabetinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011fu, hatta ileride ya\u015fanabilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck kap\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak nitelendirilebilece\u011fini dile getiren uzmanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu noktada, tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131 uzat\u0131lsa bile k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde evvela Avrupa’da sonra da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok yerine yay\u0131labilecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fck hengamenin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 tehlikesi giderilebilmi\u015f olmayacak. Bu tehlikeden en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine kurtulman\u0131n tek yolu ise, Rusya ve Ukrayna aras\u0131nda evvela ate\u015fkesin temin edilmesi ve bilahare bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ge\u00e7ilmesi.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ngiltere, Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Zelensky’nin Putin’le bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131na oturmas\u0131n\u0131 hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde istemiyorlar. ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na bir kez daha aday olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan Joe Biden, Kas\u0131m 2024’teki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde Rusya’ya “bir zafer” ya\u015fatmay\u0131 akl\u0131ndan bile ge\u00e7irmiyor. \u0130ngiltere’yse Brexit sonras\u0131nda ba\u015fta Almanya ve Fransa olmak \u00fczere AB \u00fclkelerinin Rusya’y\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmeye devam etmelerinden ve bu y\u00fczden savunmaya daha \u00e7ok para harcamalar\u0131ndan son derece memnun. Bilhassa Almanya’n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik durgunluktan Londra fayda umuyor. Asl\u0131nda Ukrayna’n\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve egemenli\u011fi ne VVashington’un ne de Londra’n\u0131n umurunda; herkes kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 pe\u015finde ko\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131 durdurman\u0131n yoluysa Zelensky’i ikna etmekten ge\u00e7iyor. Bunun da iki alternatifi var. Ya Rusya Ukrayna’ya kesin bir yenilgi ya\u015fatacak ve Ukrayna’n\u0131n ate\u015fkes istemek d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka \u00e7aresi kalmayacak ya da Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131’n\u0131n Bat\u0131’ya olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadan kalkacak. Sava\u015f sahas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, birinci \u015fart\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali y\u00fcksek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ikinci \u015farta yo\u011funla\u015fmak daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i. Zelensky’nin ne istedi\u011fini anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak gerek. Ba\u015fkalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla insan\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi ama kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da Rusya’y\u0131 p\u00fcsk\u00fcrtemedi\u011fi bir sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek yerine \u015fartlar\u0131 m\u00fczakereler yoluyla belirlenecek bir bar\u0131\u015fa ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in Rusya’yla ate\u015fkes ilan etmenin neden iyi bir “se\u00e7enek” oldu\u011fu hususuna inan\u0131rsa, Zelensky ate\u015fkese “evet” der.<\/p>\n
Devletlerin d\u0131\u015f politika karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde, “liderlerin rol\u00fc” ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015fte burada bir kez daha \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Politik psikoloji \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bilim adamlar\u0131n\u0131n Zelensky’nin davran\u0131\u015f kodlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleyerek, bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6sterenlere tavsiyelerde bulunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in iyi bir f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00f6lgemizi ve t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkilemeye devam ediyor. Rusya’n\u0131n tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilmesi endi\u015feleri daha da derinle\u015ftirdi. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin’le yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde konunun ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Putin’in T\u00fcrkiye’ye ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi ziyaret s\u0131ras\u0131nda da tah\u0131l anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirece\u011fini biliyoruz. Krizin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana, Rusya’yla […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11712,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7278\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}