\u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Xi Jinping’in Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin’in davetiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Moskova ziyaretiyle uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde yeni bir devir ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
1989’da Berlin Duvar\u0131’n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayan, d\u00f6nemin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 George Bush’un (baba) ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi “Yeni D\u00fcnya D\u00fczeni”nin tek kutuplu mu yoksa \u00e7ok kutuplu mu olaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131k son buluyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler uzmanlar\u0131 y\u0131llarca bunu konu\u015ftular, yazd\u0131lar. Acaba Francis Fukuyama’n\u0131n iddia etti\u011fi gibi “tarihin sonu” gelmi\u015f ve ABD liderli\u011findeki liberal demokrasilerin kat’i \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemi mi ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131? Yoksa d\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde yepyeni fay hatlar\u0131 m\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yordu? Samuel P. Huntington’un Medeniyetler \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tezi mi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecekti? Balkanlarda ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar da Orta Do\u011fu geli\u015fmeleri de Kafkasya’daki gerilimler de bu iki ana varsay\u0131m \u00fczerinden de\u011ferlendirildi. Bug\u00fcn k\u00fcresel hesaplarda -aritmetik tabiriylebir “yutan eleman” var.<\/p>\n
Xi’nin Moskova ziyaretinde Putin ile imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belgenin ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, “Yeni \u00c7a\u011f i\u00e7in Koordinasyonun Kapsaml\u0131 Stratejik Ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Derinle\u015ftirilmesine \u0130li\u015fkin Ortak A\u00e7\u0131klama”. Bu ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki Yeni \u00c7a\u011f tabiri rastgele se\u00e7ilmi\u015f de\u011fil, iki devlet adam\u0131 sadece \u00fclkelerinin ikili ili\u015fkilerinde yeni bir seviyeye ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyuna duyurmuyorlar, ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fcnyada bir \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini de z\u0131mnen ilan ediyorlar. Kapatt\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n ad\u0131 ise “Amerikan Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131”, di\u011fer bir tabir ile Bat\u0131 tipi k\u00fcreselle\u015fme.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en haftalardaki yaz\u0131lar\u0131mda, ABD \u0130stihbarat Toplulu\u011fu ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n Kongre’ye sunmu\u015f oldu\u011fu 2023 Tehdit De\u011ferlendirmesi raporunda \u00c7in’den alg\u0131lad\u0131klar\u0131 “meydan okumalar\u0131” tek tek sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan s\u00f6z etmi\u015ftim. Tehdit s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda \u00c7in’i takip eden \u00fclke ise Rusya’yd\u0131. Bu raporun yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden bir hafta dahi ge\u00e7meden, ABD’nin “benim i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehditler” dedi\u011fi iki \u00fclke, tarihlerindeki en kapsaml\u0131 stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fini somutla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
\u015eayet \u00c7in ile Rusya’n\u0131n niyeti ger\u00e7ekten “Yeni bir \u00c7a\u011f” ba\u015flatmak ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde, yani 2024’teki ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7iminden \u00f6nce atabilecekleri en az \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli ad\u0131m daha var.<\/p>\n
Birincisi, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya \u00fczerindeki yapt\u0131r\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesi i\u00e7in \u00c7in’in ekonomik ve siyasi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc devreye sokmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin liderli\u011finde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen Rusya’y\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma ve Putin’i “\u015feytanla\u015ft\u0131rma” politikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Beijing’in \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek vermesi. Bunu yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde, ABD’nin \u00c7in’i de hedef alan bir tutum i\u00e7ine girece\u011finin ilk emareleri \u00c7inli firmalar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130kincisi, Rusya’n\u0131n cephede kazanmak i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu silah, m\u00fchimmat ve bilhassa y\u00fcksek teknoloji \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc te\u00e7hizat\u0131n \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan temin edilmesi. ABD Ukrayna \u00fczerinden Rusya’yla, Rusya \u00fczerinden de \u00c7in’le bir “\u00e7ifte vek\u00e2let” sava\u015f\u0131na giri\u015ftiyse, \u00c7in art\u0131k “ben bu oyunda sonuna kadar var\u0131m” diyebilir. Bu durumda ABD yap\u0131m\u0131 silahlar kullanan Ukrayna ordusu ile \u00c7in yap\u0131m\u0131 silahlar kullanan Rus ordusu aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f, herkesin akl\u0131nda olan ama telaffuzdan bile imtina edilen, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve kapsaml\u0131 bir hesapla\u015fman\u0131n tetikleyicisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00c7in ile Rusya’n\u0131n liderli\u011finde Asya’dan -ve belki Afrika’dan- ba\u015fka devletlerin de kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla yeni bir \u0130ttifak kurulmas\u0131. T\u0131pk\u0131 NATO gibi, BM Antla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n 51. Maddesine at\u0131fla b\u00f6yle bir asker\u00ee pakt kurulmas\u0131, ABD’nin de AUKUS ve benzeri olu\u015fumlar\u0131 NATO ile stratejik ili\u015fkiye sokarak \u00c7in ve Rusya blokunu daha aktif \u015fekilde \u00e7evrelemeye y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu geli\u015fme ise “bloklar aras\u0131” \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskini y\u00fckseltir.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zlerimizin \u00f6n\u00fcnde temelleri at\u0131lmakta olan bu Yeni \u00c7a\u011f’\u0131n mimarisi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki benzerlerinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 dinamiklerin tesiriyle \u015fekillenecek. Zincirleme teknolojik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar, yeni ve g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl -insan yap\u0131m\u0131- pandemiler, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin sebep oldu\u011fu s\u00fcreklilik arz eden tabii afetler, d\u00fcnyada var olan ekonomik ve sosyal d\u00fczenleri de ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrecek. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sadece yeni bir \u00e7a\u011f a\u00e7\u0131lmayacak, belki de yeni bir d\u00fcnya kurulacak.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye, su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flayan bu yeni blokla\u015fman\u0131n da tam kav\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Bir kez daha hayati tercihler yapmaya zorlanacak. “Bizimle misiniz, kar\u015f\u0131 tarafta m\u0131?” sorular\u0131na muhatap olacak. Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131’ndan hemen \u00f6nce ve \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131’ndan hemen sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imler T\u00fcrkiye’nin 100 y\u0131l\u0131na y\u00f6n vermi\u015fti. Yak\u0131n gelecekte yapaca\u011f\u0131 tercih de in\u015fas\u0131na ba\u015flanan Yeni D\u00fcnya’n\u0131n neresinde ve ne \u015fekilde yer alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek, belki de mimarlar\u0131ndan biri olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Xi Jinping’in Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin’in davetiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Moskova ziyaretiyle uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde yeni bir devir ba\u015fl\u0131yor. 1989’da Berlin Duvar\u0131’n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yla ba\u015flayan, d\u00f6nemin ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 George Bush’un (baba) ad\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi “Yeni D\u00fcnya D\u00fczeni”nin tek kutuplu mu yoksa \u00e7ok kutuplu mu olaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131k son buluyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler uzmanlar\u0131 y\u0131llarca […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11813,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}