T\u00fcrkiye’nin denizden iki kom\u015fusu aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n ilk y\u0131l\u0131 sona erdi. Rusya ile Ukrayna’n\u0131n aralar\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131n gelecekte bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131nda sonland\u0131racaklar\u0131na dair bir emare yok. Sava\u015ftaki can kay\u0131plar\u0131, kimin ne kadar toprak kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da kaybetti\u011fi, sava\u015fta ne kadar asker, tank, u\u00e7ak, top kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi istatistiki bilgilerin \u00f6nemini ink\u00e2r edemeyiz. Ama bu y\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcnde rakamlardan ziyade g\u00f6zlerimizin \u00f6n\u00fcnde cereyan eden hadiseyi uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler sistemi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirmeye daha \u00e7ok odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ben bu de\u011ferlendirmeyi alt\u0131 madde h\u00e2linde yapaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Her \u015feyden evvel, sava\u015f Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler sisteminin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6nlemek ve bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 muhafaza etmek konusundaki yetersizli\u011fini \u00e7ok net \u015fekilde ortaya koymu\u015ftur. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n 10 y\u0131ld\u0131r, Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l dile getirdi\u011fi gibi “BM reforma muhta\u00e7t\u0131r.” S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve yenileme BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’ni de kapsamal\u0131d\u0131r. Sadece bir daim\u00ee G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyesinin eylemlerinin de\u011fil, G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin daim\u00ee \u00fcyesi olmayan ama bir daim\u00ee \u00fcye taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen devletlerin eylemlerinin hukuka uygunlu\u011funu da temin edecek mekanizmalar kurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bir \u00fclkenin ba\u015fka bir \u00fclkenin i\u015fgaline u\u011framas\u0131n\u0131 21. y\u00fczy\u0131lda \u00f6nleyecek yepyeni bir bar\u0131\u015f d\u00fczenine duyulan ihtiya\u00e7 artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u0130kincisi, “vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131” kavram\u0131n\u0131n So\u011fuk Sava\u015f y\u0131llar\u0131na has olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Hi\u00e7bir \u015f\u00fcpheye mahal vermeyecek \u015fekilde, ABD ve bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesi Rusya’ya kar\u015f\u0131 bir vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00fclkelerin Ukrayna’ya verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi kendi ya\u015famsal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na bir tehdit, hatta sald\u0131r\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiren Rusya “vek\u00e2letin \u00f6tesinde, kendisine do\u011frudan bir sald\u0131r\u0131 oldu\u011funu zaman zaman iddia etmektedir. Di\u011fer yandan, Bat\u0131’n\u0131n Rusya \u00fczerinden \u00c7in’e kar\u015f\u0131 da bir vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmekte oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Belki de bu sava\u015f, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131na kadar ya\u015fanabilecek olan ABD-\u00c7in \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n provas\u0131d\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu “\u00e7ifte vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n” Bat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nihai hedefi, 16. as\u0131rdan itibaren a\u015fama a\u015fama in\u015fa edilen ekonomik-siyasi ve asker\u00ee Bat\u0131 hegemonyas\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131n\u0131 temindir. Rusya, \u00c7in ve elbette Hindistan ise yeni bir k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 denklemi kurman\u0131n pe\u015findedir.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, n\u00fckleer sava\u015f ihtimali son 33 y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez bu kadar y\u00fcksektir. Yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131yla ya da Kuzey Kore’nin f\u00fcze denemeleriyle ili\u015fkilendirilen n\u00fckleer tehdit alg\u0131lar\u0131 baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere mahsus kalm\u0131\u015f iken \u015fimdiki tehdit Kuzey denizinden, Pasifik’e d\u00fcnyan\u0131n neredeyse<\/p>\n
yar\u0131s\u0131yla ilgilidir. Son 33 y\u0131ld\u0131r hi\u00e7bir zaman “gerekirse n\u00fckleer silahlara ba\u015fvururuz” c\u00fcmlesi geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir y\u0131lda oldu\u011fu kadar tekrarlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6nc\u00fc sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131m ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck hesapla\u015fman\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmadan y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi i\u015flemektedir. Kendisine kar\u015f\u0131 “vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc” g\u00f6zlemleyen Rusya ile ABD’nin ulusal g\u00fcvenlik stratejisinde “yar\u0131 rakip \/ yar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman” olarak tan\u0131mlanan \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fi artmaktad\u0131r. ABD’nin Do\u011fu Avrupa, \u0130skandinav \u00fclkeleri ve Japonya yoluyla Rusya \u00fczerinde kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131ya Rusya ve \u00c7in, \u0130ran ve G\u00fcney Afrika yoluyla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermektedir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda, Latin Amerika’dan Pakistan’a uzanan \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir alanda Rusya ve \u00c7in ile stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fine girecek ve ortak tatbikatlar yapacak yeni \u00fclkeler g\u00f6rmek ihtimal d\u00e2hilindedir. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Kurulu’nda yap\u0131lan ve Rusya’y\u0131 eylemlerini sona erdirmeye davet eden karar oylamas\u0131nda, “red” oyu verenlerden ziyade “\u00e7ekimser” kalanlar\u0131n hangi \u00fclkeler oldu\u011funun iyi analiz edilmesi gerekir. \u00d6te yandan ABD ve \u0130ngiltere’nin; Rusya’n\u0131n eylemleri sayesinde kendi saflar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, Almanya’n\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in ile olan ili\u015fkilerini bozmas\u0131n\u0131 temin etti\u011fi, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya’n\u0131n NATO’ya \u00fcyelik ba\u015fvurusunda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etti\u011fi ve Avrupa’da yeni bir silahlanma furyas\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yararland\u0131\u011f\u0131 da unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Be\u015fincisi, ekonomik ve siyasi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n zannedildi\u011fi kadar etkili olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kez daha do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Y\u0131llarca \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli tutumlar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesini temin edemeyen “ambargolar”, Rusya i\u00e7in de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki do\u011furmu\u015ftur. Di\u011fer yandan, Rusya’n\u0131n da AB \u00fclkelerine kar\u015f\u0131 elinde oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen “enerji sopas\u0131n\u0131n” fazlaca abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bir\u00e7ok strateji uzman\u0131n\u0131n iddia etti\u011fi gibi Bat\u0131’n\u0131n ambargolar\u0131 ve Rusya’n\u0131n kesintileri her iki tarafta da ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ama yine bir\u00e7ok strateji uzman\u0131n\u0131n tahmininin aksine taraflar\u0131n diz \u00e7\u00f6kmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanacak devasa felaketleri \u015fimdilik do\u011furmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, krizin ilk g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren “iki kom\u015fusunun bir an \u00f6nce \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya son vermesi” i\u00e7in samimi gayretler g\u00f6steren tek \u00fclkenin T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n Nobel Bar\u0131\u015f \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilmesinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca sebebi Rusya ve Ukrayna nezdinde k\u0131smen kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulan ama ABD ve \u0130ngiltere ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletlerin “sava\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesinden yana ortaya koyduklar\u0131 tav\u0131rdan dolay\u0131” hen\u00fcz neticeye varamayan bu i\u00e7ten \u00e7abalar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye’nin denizden iki kom\u015fusu aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f\u0131n ilk y\u0131l\u0131 sona erdi. Rusya ile Ukrayna’n\u0131n aralar\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131n gelecekte bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131nda sonland\u0131racaklar\u0131na dair bir emare yok. Sava\u015ftaki can kay\u0131plar\u0131, kimin ne kadar toprak kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da kaybetti\u011fi, sava\u015fta ne kadar asker, tank, u\u00e7ak, top kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi istatistiki bilgilerin \u00f6nemini ink\u00e2r edemeyiz. Ama bu y\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcnde rakamlardan ziyade […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6538","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6538","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6538"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6538\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6538"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6538"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6538"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}