Per\u015fembe toplanan Mill\u00ee G\u00fcvenlik Kurulundan sonra yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyine yap\u0131lacak asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyali verildi. Daha operasyonlardan \u00f6nce de, T\u00fcrkiye hem Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n a\u011fz\u0131ndan hem de MGK bildirisi \u00fczerinden, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hemen g\u00fcneyinde ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin faaliyetlerine izin verilmeyece\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f ard\u0131ndan da b\u00f6lgeye m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. Bundan sonra, harek\u00e2t\u0131n olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ne zaman olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak daha anlaml\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bir de siyasi hedeflerinin neler oldu\u011funu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm asker\u00ee operasyonlar\u0131n mutlaka siyasi \/ stratejik hedefleri olur. T\u00fcrk Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetlerince daha \u00f6nce de b\u00f6lgede ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen t\u00fcm harek\u00e2tlar\u0131n ortak hedefi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ter\u00f6rist unsurlar\u0131n s\u0131zma giri\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korumakt\u0131r. Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde icra edilecek ve ismi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde netle\u015fecek olan yeni harek\u00e2t\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6rt stratejik hedefi oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyorum:<\/p>\n
1-ABD\u2019nin kesintisiz deste\u011fiyle kurulan, yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 bin ki\u015fi oldu\u011fu ifade edilen silahl\u0131 unsurlara sahip olan PKK-YPG\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hemen g\u00fcneyindeki \u201cg\u00fcvenli alandaki\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kati \u015fekilde sonland\u0131rmak. S\u00f6z konusu ter\u00f6rist unsurlara m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n verdirilmesi suretiyle \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerdeki operasyon kabiliyetini yok etmek.<\/p>\n
2-Yeniden bu alana s\u0131zma te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunan DEA\u015e\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kesmek. Var olan ve muhtemel lojistik imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmak. \u0130leride giri\u015febilecekleri her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ter\u00f6r eylemini cayd\u0131racak bir darbe indirmek.<\/p>\n
3-2016\u2019dan 2020\u2019ye kadar yap\u0131lan harek\u00e2tlar s\u0131ras\u0131nda olu\u015fturulan g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgeler aras\u0131ndaki kopukluklar\u0131 ve temass\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmak suretiyle do\u011fudan-bat\u0131ya uzanan hat boyunca yer yer 30 kilometrenin de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak \u015fekilde alan h\u00e2kimiyetini tahkim etmek.<\/p>\n
4-G\u00fcvenli alan\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den evlerine geri d\u00f6necek olan m\u00fclteciler i\u00e7in uygun ge\u00e7ici ya da kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131nma imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fa edilebilece\u011fi bir b\u00f6lgeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek.<\/p>\n
Harek\u00e2t\u0131n sinyali verildi\u011fi andan itibaren, ge\u00e7mi\u015ftekilere benzer sorular da ortada dola\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131:<\/p>\n
\u201cABD izin verecek mi? ABD ve Rusya taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilen Suriye hava sahas\u0131nda T\u00fcrk sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 nas\u0131l u\u00e7acak? \u0130ran nas\u0131l tepki verecek? Suriye rejimi nas\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131r? \u0130srail ne yapar?\u201d<\/p>\n
Bu sorular\u0131n tamam\u0131 me\u015fru sorulard\u0131r ve harek\u00e2t\u0131 planlayanlar taraf\u0131ndan mutlaka sorulmu\u015f ve cevap aranm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eu ana kadarki tabloyu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak biz de bir k\u0131sm\u0131na cevap vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m:<\/p>\n
ABD elbette a\u00e7\u0131k bir dille \u201cizin veriyorum\u201d demeyecek. Hatta tam tersi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparak, y\u0131llard\u0131r silahland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u201cen de\u011ferli m\u00fcttefik\u201d ilan etti\u011fi PKK-YPG\u2019ye sahip \u00e7\u0131kacak. Fakat ABD\u2019nin bu tutumu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7mesine mani olamayacak.<\/p>\n
Rusya da, Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve egemenli\u011fi hakk\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparak, TSK\u2019nin ilerleyi\u015fine ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakmayacak.<\/p>\n
Bu noktada, iki \u00fclkenin de harek\u00e2ta so\u011fuk bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda Suriye hava sahas\u0131nda nas\u0131l u\u00e7u\u015f yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusu ger\u00e7ekten de can al\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le geliyor. Hava unsurlar\u0131 olmadan ya da k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 hava deste\u011fiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen \u00f6nceki operasyonlarda ya\u015fan\u0131lan zorluklar haf\u0131zalar\u0131m\u0131zdad\u0131r. Uzun mesafeli top\u00e7u ve roket deste\u011finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra seri ve sessiz hareket eden S\u0130HA\u2019lar ile hava unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n yeri doldurulabilir mi emin de\u011filim. ABD ile ilerlemenin \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, acaba bu harek\u00e2t ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce Rusya ile belli konularda mutabakata var\u0131labilir mi diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Rusya\u2019y\u0131 -daha \u00f6ncekilerden farkl\u0131 olarak- T\u00fcrkiye ile uzla\u015fmaya itebilecek baz\u0131 hususlar elbette var.<\/p>\n
Her \u015feyden \u00f6nce Rusya Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Suriye\u2019deki asker mevcudiyetini azaltabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler bas\u0131nda yer almaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgede T\u00fcrkiye ile i\u015f birli\u011fine gitmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde eskiye nazaran daha az engel var. Yine de sahadaki Rus birliklerinin komuta kademesinin T\u00fcrkiye ile i\u015f birli\u011fine son derece mesafeli olduklar\u0131n\u0131 da biliyoruz. O h\u00e2lde ikna edilmesi gereken Moskova yani Putin\u2019dir. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgali ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 andan itibaren g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi hay\u0131rhah tarafs\u0131zl\u0131k tutumuyla Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir konumda oldu\u011funu ispatlayan T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n NATO \u00fcyeliklerine kar\u015f\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tav\u0131rla da daha fazla istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7abilecek giri\u015fimlere temkinli yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Moskova\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019ye yap\u0131lacak harek\u00e2t konusunda T\u00fcrkiye ile prensipte bile olsa uzla\u015fabilmesi i\u00e7in \u015eam y\u00f6netiminin harek\u00e2ttan do\u011frudan zarar g\u00f6rmeyece\u011finden emin olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu ise bizi aylard\u0131r tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z soruya geri g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor: \u201cErmenistan, \u0130srail, BAE ve Suudi Arabistan ile normalle\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine girmi\u015fken, \u015eam y\u00f6netimiyle -istihbarat \u00f6rg\u00fctleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da- bir temasa ge\u00e7ilebilir mi?\u201d \u015eahsen bu soruya h\u00e2l\u00e2 olumlu cevap verilebilece\u011fini ama \u015eam \u00fczerinde artmakta olan \u0130ran etkisi sebebiyle bir s\u00fcre sonra bu durumun tamamen ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. \u015eam, Ankara ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye s\u0131cak bakabilir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc; ABD destekli PKK-YPG\u2019nin \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birini hem de petrol b\u00f6lgelerini kontrol etmesinden rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duyuyor. T\u00fcrkiye ile bir\u00e7ok konuda var olan derin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015eam\u2019\u0131n en az\u0131ndan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc PKK-YPG ile m\u00fccadele konusunda Ankara ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fine girmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Kald\u0131 ki, Suriye rejiminden ka\u00e7arak \u00fclkemize s\u0131\u011f\u0131nan Suriye vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, Suriye\u2019ye tekrar yerle\u015ftirilebilmesi i\u00e7in \u015eam ile Ankara aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan ya da dolayl\u0131 bir diyalog kurulmas\u0131 ileride zaten gerekebilecektir.<\/p>\n
\u2026<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Do\u011fu Roma \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun ba\u015fkenti Konstantiniyye\u2019nin Cennetmek\u00e2n Fatih Sultan Mehmed Han taraf\u0131ndan \u0130stanbul\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesine kap\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck fethin 569. y\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc. Bu topraklar\u0131 bize vatan yapan \u015fanl\u0131 ecdad\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 bu vesileyle rahmet ve \u015f\u00fckranla y\u00e2d ediyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Per\u015fembe toplanan Mill\u00ee G\u00fcvenlik Kurulundan sonra yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyine yap\u0131lacak asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyali verildi. Daha operasyonlardan \u00f6nce de, T\u00fcrkiye hem Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n a\u011fz\u0131ndan hem de MGK bildirisi \u00fczerinden, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hemen g\u00fcneyinde ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin faaliyetlerine izin verilmeyece\u011fini ifade etmi\u015f ard\u0131ndan da b\u00f6lgeye m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015fti. Bundan sonra, harek\u00e2t\u0131n olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, ne zaman olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11991,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[37],"class_list":["post-6095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-37"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6095"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6095\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11992,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6095\/revisions\/11992"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}