Rusya, Ukrayna s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na asker y\u0131\u011fmaya devam ediyor. ABD\u2019den Rusya\u2019y\u0131 muhatap alan sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geliyor. NATO, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya do\u011fru geni\u015flemesinin kabul edilemez oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. Moskova, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n ara buluculuk teklifine \u00e7e\u015fitli bahanelerle \u015fimdilik so\u011fuk bak\u0131yor. Putin, Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Zelensky\u2019i muhatap alm\u0131yor; \u201cO gitsin, Donbas\u2019taki ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131larla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u201d diyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ocak ya da \u015fubatta Ukrayna\u2019ya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 hatta \u00fclkenin tamam\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fgal edebilece\u011fi gibi senaryolar uluslararas\u0131 medya organlar\u0131nda dola\u015f\u0131ma sokuluyor.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerindeki emelleri gizli de\u011fil. \u00d6zellikle K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131n bir oldu-bitti ile yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan bir yandan bu b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Rusya, di\u011fer yandan da Kiev y\u00f6netiminin Bat\u0131 ile s\u0131k\u0131 ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmesini engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Putin\u2019in ilk devlet ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu yana Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n \u00e7evresine y\u00f6nelik Bat\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelere sert tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. NATO ve AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya daha fazla yakla\u015fmas\u0131na izin vermeyeceklerini belirten Putin, G\u00fcrcistan, Ukrayna ve Beyaz Rusya\u2019y\u0131 \u201casla Bat\u0131\u2019ya b\u0131rak\u0131lamayacak hayati alanlar\u201d olarak tarif ediyor. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Biden\u2019\u0131n, Covid-19\u2019la m\u00fccadele ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere i\u00e7 meselelere yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 Putin\u2019i daha da cesaretlendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Esasen bir \u201cmilliyetler co\u011frafyas\u0131\u201d olan ve n\u00fcfusunun yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte biri Rus olmayan etnik topluluklardan olu\u015fan Rusya Federasyonu\u2019nun Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u201cs\u0131zmalara\u201d kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik refleksleri geli\u015ftirirken savunma hatt\u0131n\u0131 kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde kurmay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ilhak edilen K\u0131r\u0131m hari\u00e7 21 cumhuriyetten olu\u015fan bir \u00fclkenin, d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fc tehditler alg\u0131lamas\u0131 tabii g\u00f6z\u00fckebilir. Fakat kendi birli\u011fini muhafaza edebilmek i\u00e7in kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7i\u015flerine bu denli m\u00fcdahil olu\u015funun muhtemelen ba\u015fka sebepleri de var.<\/p>\n
Putin\u2019in \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 ve cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 savunma yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u201cRusya\u2019ya bir ad\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131rsan\u0131z, Rusya size iki ad\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131r\u201d \u015feklinde \u00f6zetlenebilecek bu siyasetin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerdeki i\u015f birlik\u00e7ilerin heveslerinin devam\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. G\u00fcrcistan\u2019da ve Ukrayna\u2019da Rusya\u2019yla birlikte hareket eden gruplar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Moskova\u2019n\u0131n temel g\u00fcvencesi.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer yandan Rusya, kendi yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinin \u00f6tesinde bir\u00e7ok alanda daha ABD ile farkl\u0131 pozisyonlarda bulunuyor. Venezuela\u2019dan Libya\u2019ya, Sahel b\u00f6lgesinden Suriye\u2019ye ve son d\u00f6nemde Afganistan\u2019a kadar farkl\u0131 co\u011frafyalar zaman zaman silahl\u0131 gruplar \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen bir \u201cdidi\u015fmeye\u201d sahne oluyor. \u0130ki taraf\u0131n birbirlerini do\u011frudan hedef almad\u0131klar\u0131 ama \u201cvekiller \u00fczerinden\u201d s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fckleri bu didi\u015fme bir\u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6nemindeki vek\u00e2let sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Ortada ideolojik bir kutupla\u015fma veyahut \u201cs\u0131n\u0131f m\u00fccadelesi\u201d olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ayn\u0131yla tekrar\u0131 olarak nitelenemeyecek bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, ge\u00e7mi\u015ften \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k daha var. O da \u00c7in\u2019in durumu.<\/p>\n
Tam burada, Rusya ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n gelecekte bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerden ayr\u0131l\u0131yorum. Aksine, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019den en az ABD kadar tehdit alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in ad\u0131m ad\u0131m, k\u00f6y k\u00f6y Rusya\u2019ya do\u011fru \u201cgenle\u015fmesinin\u201d Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Rusya\u2019y\u0131 \u201c\u00e7evrelemesi\u201dnden kaynaklananlar kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck problemlere yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.<\/p>\n
Bu da ister istemez Rusya ile ABD aras\u0131nda bir yak\u0131nla\u015fmay\u0131 zorunlu k\u0131lacak. Ba\u015fkan Nixon\u2019un Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ni dengelemek i\u00e7in \u00c7in\u2019i yan\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan tam yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131l sonra bu kez \u00c7in\u2019i \u201cdizginlemek\u201d i\u00e7in ABD ile Rusya anla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
\u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi te\u015fkilat\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde olsalar da, Rusya ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki tarihsel rekabetin eninde sonunda ciddi bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya sebep olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Rusya ile ABD aras\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir i\u015f birli\u011fi yap\u0131lacaksa, bu ikisinin \u00f6nce topyek\u00fbn bir hesapla\u015fma masas\u0131na oturmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Rusya b\u00fcy\u00fck hesapla\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde, pazarl\u0131k pay\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca y\u00fckseltmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Moskova\u2019n\u0131n kendi yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinde ve \u00f6tesindeki siyasetini de\u011ferlendirirken, bunun da dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ne yapmak istedi\u011fini g\u00f6ren ABD\u2019nin de kar\u015f\u0131 hamleler geli\u015ftirdi\u011fine \u015fahitlik ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, fazla ileri gitti\u011fi takdirde \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ABD ile i\u015f birli\u011fi ihtimalinin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck hesapla\u015fman\u0131n\u201d \u00e7ok ileri bir tarihe ertelenece\u011fini de hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenir. Ama uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde, akt\u00f6rlerin her zaman rasyonel hareket etmediklerini de unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ABD d\u00e2hil tek bir NATO \u00fcyesinin dahi Ukrayna i\u00e7in Rusya ile silahl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girmeyece\u011fini biliyoruz. Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi Putin de biliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rusya, Ukrayna s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na asker y\u0131\u011fmaya devam ediyor. ABD\u2019den Rusya\u2019y\u0131 muhatap alan sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalar geliyor. NATO, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya do\u011fru geni\u015flemesinin kabul edilemez oldu\u011funu ifade ediyor. Moskova, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n ara buluculuk teklifine \u00e7e\u015fitli bahanelerle \u015fimdilik so\u011fuk bak\u0131yor. Putin, Ukrayna Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Zelensky\u2019i muhatap alm\u0131yor; \u201cO gitsin, Donbas\u2019taki ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131larla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fs\u00fcn\u201d diyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ocak ya da \u015fubatta Ukrayna\u2019ya b\u00fcy\u00fck bir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12035,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[30],"class_list":["post-5494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-30"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5494\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}