{"id":5346,"date":"2021-03-21T11:57:55","date_gmt":"2021-03-21T08:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=5346"},"modified":"2024-03-06T23:27:04","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T20:27:04","slug":"buyuk-guclerin-rekabeti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=5346","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin rekabeti-T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi (21.03.2021)"},"content":{"rendered":"
Biden, Putin\u2019e \u201ckatil\u201d dedi. Rusya Washington b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isini Moskova\u2019ya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Putin, Biden ile her zaman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini bildirerek, gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131ndan yana olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Beyaz Saray s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u201cBiden, Putin\u2019e katil dedi\u011fi i\u00e7in pi\u015fman de\u011fil\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. Bu s\u0131rada, ABD ve \u00c7in d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanlar\u0131 Alaska\u2019da yapt\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede bas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde birbirlerini a\u011f\u0131r \u015fekilde itham ettiler. \u00c7in D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, \u201cABD\u2019nin demokrasiyi desteklemedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi…<\/div>\n
Son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde, ABD-Rusya-\u00c7in aras\u0131nda en \u00fcst seviyede ya\u015fanan gerilimler b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya ba\u015fkentlerinin olup bitenlere kulak kabartmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u00f6z konusu olan, s\u0131radan \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin liderleri aras\u0131ndaki ve sadece kendilerini ilgilendiren at\u0131\u015fmalar de\u011fil, d\u00fcnya siyasetine y\u00f6n veren \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn, uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyunun g\u00f6zleri \u00f6n\u00fcnde, \u201cbirbirlerinden ne kadar hazzetmediklerinin\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k bir tezah\u00fcr\u00fcyd\u00fc.<\/div>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler disiplininde devletler \u00e7e\u015fitli kriterlere g\u00f6re tasnif edilir. T\u00fcm sistemi ya da k\u00fcresel ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u201ctek ba\u015flar\u0131na\u201d etkileme potansiyeline ve kabiliyetine sahip olan devletlere \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d denir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 kategorisine girebilecek \u00fc\u00e7 devlet bulunuyor: ABD, \u00c7in ve Rusya… Bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ortak \u00f6zelli\u011fi, yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ilgilendirmesi, buralardaki t\u00fcm geli\u015fmelerin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle takip edilmesidir.<\/div>\n
Almanya, Japonya, Hindistan, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa; ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck, siyasi etki, k\u00fclt\u00fcrel n\u00fcfuz, asker\u00ee kapasite, enerji kaynaklar\u0131, diplomatik temsil a\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli kriterler bak\u0131m\u0131ndan yukar\u0131daki ilk \u00fc\u00e7 devleti takip etmektedir. Fakat bunlar, uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkileri \u201ctek ba\u015flar\u0131na\u201d etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip de\u011fillerdir. Yine de, bilhassa d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu be\u015fini de, \u201c\u00f6nemli g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d olarak zikretmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/div>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndan biri di\u011ferlerinden ayr\u0131l\u0131r ve \u201clider \u00fclke\u201d olarak isimlendirilir. Lideri farkl\u0131 k\u0131lan, uluslararas\u0131 alandaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klarda \u201cson s\u00f6z\u00fc s\u00f6yleme\u201d ve \u201cistedi\u011fini yapt\u0131rma\u201d ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131na -di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lere nazaran- daha fazla sahip olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Literat\u00fcrde lidere, “ba\u015fat g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d, \u201ch\u00e2kim g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d ya da \u201chegemon g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d isimleri de verilmektedir.<\/div>\n
20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne d\u00fcnyan\u0131n lider \u00fclkesi ABD\u2019dir. Bu \u00fclkenin 1990\u2019larda tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z ve rakipsiz olan liderli\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u00c7in\u2019den gelen b\u00fcy\u00fck bir meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Rusya ise, SSCB y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki itibar\u0131n\u0131n epey gerisinde olmakla birlikte, yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 h\u00e2line gelmi\u015f ve ABD ile rekabet i\u00e7ine girmi\u015ftir.<\/div>\n
Tarih, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki rekabetin uzun s\u00fcre bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebildi\u011fi bir \u00f6rnek sunmamaktad\u0131r. \u00c7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, \u00f6nce birbirlerinin r\u0131zas\u0131 al\u0131nmadan yap\u0131lan b\u00f6lgesel tek tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelere, ard\u0131ndan vekalet sava\u015flar\u0131na ve nihayetinde do\u011frudan silahl\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7ar. Bu m\u00fccadelede \u201ckimin haks\u0131z, kimin hakl\u0131 oldu\u011funun\u201d bir \u00f6nemi yoktur. Zira \u201chakl\u0131l\u0131k\u201d her taraf\u0131n kendi arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131na g\u00f6re tan\u0131mlan\u0131r. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmadan galip \u00e7\u0131kan, t\u00fcm olup bitenleri kendi perspektifinden yeniden kurgulay\u0131p, tarih kitaplar\u0131na yerle\u015ftirir. K\u00fcresel lidere yeni bir meydan okuma olana kadar, herkes hik\u00e2yeyi galibin yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekliyle \u00f6\u011frenir. Dahas\u0131, i\u015fin asl\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6yle olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilen devletler bile, liderden \u00e7ekindiklerinden, olup biteni kurcalamaktan uzak dururlar.<\/div>\n
Bir \u00f6nceki ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump, \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019y\u0131 tehdit olarak zikretmekle kalmam\u0131\u015f, Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Stratejisi\u2019ne de a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde yazd\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Biden d\u00f6neminde bu durumun de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in \u015fimdilik herhangi bir sebep olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fananlar belki de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanman\u0131n ya\u015fanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durumda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u00fc\u00e7 geli\u015fme ya\u015fanma ihtimali var:<\/div>\n
Birincisi, \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck devlet aras\u0131nda gerilimin t\u0131rmanmaya devam etmesi. Bu senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok noktas\u0131nda bu \u00fclkelerin destekledi\u011fi taraflar aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 hatta b\u00f6lgesel krizlerin alevlenmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/div>\n
\u0130kincisi, \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck devletin bir araya gelerek aralar\u0131ndaki problemleri m\u00fczakereler yoluyla ve sulhane bir tutumla \u00e7\u00f6zme iradesi g\u00f6stermeleri.<\/div>\n
Bu iki senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali \u00e7ok zay\u0131ft\u0131r.<\/div>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin i\u015flemesi. Bu \u00fc\u00e7 devletten hi\u00e7biri di\u011fer ikisini ayn\u0131 anda kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almak istemez. ABD, ayn\u0131 anda hem Rusya hem de \u00c7in\u2019le ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kamaz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cABD-Rusya yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d, \u201cABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 Rusya-\u00c7in yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d veya \u201cRusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ABD-\u00c7in yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d senaryolar\u0131ndan birinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali y\u00fcksektir. ABD\u2019nin uzun vadeli \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 Rusya\u2019y\u0131 yan\u0131na almakt\u0131r.<\/div>\n
Bu senaryolar\u0131n her birinde, taraflar pazarl\u0131k konusu olarak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesini masaya yat\u0131racaklard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, bu senaryolar\u0131n her biri i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapmas\u0131 gerekir…<\/div>\n
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