{"id":4473,"date":"2019-05-19T10:57:14","date_gmt":"2019-05-19T07:57:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=4473"},"modified":"2024-03-07T10:02:33","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T07:02:33","slug":"korfez-kaynarsa-kimler-kazanir-19-05-2019-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=4473","title":{"rendered":"K\u00f6rfez kaynarsa kimler kazan\u0131r? (19.05.2019) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerin kaybedenleri ve kazananlar\u0131 olur. \u201cBu i\u015fte herkes kaybetti\u201d gibi de\u011ferlendirmelere hi\u00e7 kat\u0131lmam. Sahada t\u00fcm taraflar kaybediyorsa, sahan\u0131n gerisinde ellerini ovu\u015fturan birileri mutlaka vard\u0131r. Herkes kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyorsa, ya birileri di\u011ferlerinden daha \u00e7ok kazan\u0131yordur, ya da orta vadede \u00f6yle olacakt\u0131r&#8230;<\/div>\n<div>K\u00f6rfezi \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor. Mevcut durum, daha derin bir gerilime hatta s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011fru geli\u015febilir. Bundan da birileri mutlaka kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>1979\u2019dan \u00f6nce ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n aras\u0131ndan neredeyse su s\u0131zmazd\u0131. Richard Nixon\u2019un \u201c\u0130ki S\u00fctunlu Politikas\u0131\u201dnda, s\u00fctunlardan biri Suudi Arabistan, di\u011feri ise \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131. Bu iki devlet \u00fczerinden Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ni kontrol etmek isteyen ABD o tarihlerde d\u00f6rt \u015feyi hedefliyordu: 1-Petrol \u00fcretimini ve trafi\u011fini istedi\u011fi gibi y\u00f6nlendirmek. 2-\u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flamak. 3-N\u00e2s\u0131rc\u0131, Arap Milliyet\u00e7isi ak\u0131mlar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinde etkinlik kazanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek. 4-SSCB\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye siyasi&nbsp;veya asker\u00ee olarak s\u0131zmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek&#8230;<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>\u0130ki s\u00fctunlu politikan\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu. Suudi Arabistan ABD\u2019nin istedi\u011fi kadar silahlanmad\u0131. M\u0131s\u0131r&#8217;la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmad\u0131. Hatta 1973 sava\u015f\u0131nda \u0130srail\u2019e yard\u0131m eden Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 petrol ambargosuna liderlik etti. Di\u011fer taraftan \u0130ran \u201cK\u00f6rfez\u2019in jandarmal\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d soyundu. ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgede en \u00e7ok silah satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke oldu. \u0130srail\u2019le g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihbarat i\u015f birli\u011fi geli\u015ftirdi. B\u00f6lgenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Arap devletlerinden Irak\u2019\u0131 b\u00f6lmek i\u00e7in K\u00fcrtleri destekledi. \u00d6zellikle bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130srail\u2019le \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7\u0131kar birlikteli\u011fi olu\u015ftu. Ama 1979\u2019da \u015eah&#8217;\u0131n devrilmesiyle ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkileri bug\u00fcne kadar devam edecek bir gerilim ya\u015famaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>\u015eah\u2019\u0131n devrilmesi ABD\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu politikas\u0131nda yeni bir safhan\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131d\u0131r. Jimmy Carter\u2019\u0131n 1980\u2019de ilan etti\u011fi doktrinle, ABD ilk defa K\u00f6rfez\u2019de do\u011frudan silah kullanma tehdidinde bulunuyordu. Carter, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfezdeki petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 durumunda m\u00fcdahale etmekten s\u00f6z ediyordu. Ama ABD \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131rmad\u0131. Bu i\u015fi Tahran\u2019la kan davas\u0131 olan Ba\u011fdat yapt\u0131. Uzun ve y\u0131prat\u0131c\u0131 sava\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini ve b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerine silah satmay\u0131 isteyen t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rlerin i\u015fine geldi.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>1979\u2019dan bug\u00fcne kadar ge\u00e7en 40 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ABD\u2019de ba\u015fkanlar ve di\u011fer d\u00fczeylerdeki yetkililer defalarca \u0130ran\u2019a asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleden bahsettiler. \u0130nternette \u00fc\u00e7 kelimelik basit bir arama yapt\u0131m: \u201cBush invasion \u0130ran\u201d yazd\u0131m. Irak\u2019a sald\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce ve sonra Bush y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran\u2019a asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahalede bulunmak i\u00e7in planlar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, asker\u00ee se\u00e7ene\u011fin masada oldu\u011fu, \u0130srail\u2019in Bush\u2019u bu konuda ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ilgili \u00e7ok say\u0131da eski gazete k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131s\u0131na ve haberlere ula\u015ft\u0131m. Clinton ve Obama d\u00f6nemlerinde de, Bush d\u00f6nemindeki kadar \u00fcst perdeden olmasa da, zaman zaman \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 planlar\u0131ndan s\u00f6z edilirdi. O d\u00f6nemin ana konusu \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 n\u00fckleer silah elde etme planlar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7irmekti.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>Nihayet bu \u00e7abalar ve bask\u0131lar sonu\u00e7 vermi\u015f, Obama d\u00f6neminde \u0130ran alt\u0131 \u00fclkeyle bir anla\u015fma imzalayarak uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na son vermi\u015fti. S\u00fcreci Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler denetliyordu. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n ekibi ise iktidara geldiklerinden bu yana, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu anla\u015fma h\u00fck\u00fcmlerini ihlal etti\u011fini iddia ediyor. N\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalayan di\u011fer \u00fclkeler bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceye kat\u0131lmasalar da, ABD \u0130ran konusunda kararl\u0131. Nitekim, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe soktular. \u015eimdi de yeniden asker\u00ee se\u00e7enek konusu g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131&#8230;<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>K\u00f6rfez\u2019e muhtemel bir ABD m\u00fcdahalesinden ho\u015fnut olacaklar uzun bir liste olu\u015fturuyor. Suriye\u2019den sonra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da etkisizle\u015ftirilmesi \u0130srail\u2019i memnun eder. K\u00f6rfez\u2019de uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r \u0130ran\u2019la jeopolitik n\u00fcfuz m\u00fccadelesi y\u00fcr\u00fcten Suudi Arabistan da \u0130ran\u2019a irtifa kaybettirecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc eylemi destekler. Suudi Arabistan\u2019la dayan\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7indeki Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ve Bahreyn de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyenler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. \u015e\u00fcphesiz K\u00f6rfez\u2019in kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furacakt\u0131r. Hidrokarbon rezervlerine sahip ve bunlar\u0131 d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na pazarlayanlar da bu gerilimden kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacaklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2003\u2019teki Irak sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gizli kazananlar\u0131ndan biri Rusya\u2019yd\u0131. Bu sefer de, petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131nda bir yukar\u0131ya; Rusya ekonomisine ciddi katk\u0131 yapacakt\u0131r.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>Di\u011fer taraftan g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken bir husus, 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelen tehditlerin \u0130ran\u2019da rejimi zay\u0131flatmak yerine, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 muhalefetin etkisizle\u015ftirilmesine yol at\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fidir. Kendi h\u00e2line b\u0131rak\u0131lsa zaten i\u00e7 dinamiklerin etkisiyle siyasi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girmek zorunda kalacak olan rejim, d\u0131\u015f tehditlerden g\u00fc\u00e7 alarak neredeyse her on y\u0131lda bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrar tekrar me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n yolunu bulmaktad\u0131r. Bir \u00e7eli\u015fki gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckse de, asl\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019daki n\u00fckleer ve asker\u00ee tesisleri hedef alacak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015f operasyonun tabii sonucu, \u0130ran\u2019da rejim taraftarlar\u0131n\u0131n birbirine daha \u00e7ok kenetlenmesi ve muhalif seslerin bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede destek verdi\u011fi \u2018vekilleri\u2019 \u00fczerinden kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermeye kalkmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>Bu a\u00e7\u0131lardan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fayet K\u00f6rfez\u2019e bir m\u00fcdahale \u0130ran\u2019da rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi hedefleyen -ki bu Irak sava\u015f\u0131ndan daha uzun s\u00fcreli ve maliyetli olacakt\u0131r- bir mahiyette olmayacaksa, s\u00f6z konusu m\u00fcdahale Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n hi\u00e7 arzu etmedi\u011fi sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/div>\n<div>&nbsp;<\/div>\n<div>Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imine iki y\u0131ldan az bir s\u00fcre kalm\u0131\u015fken Trump\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir riski almas\u0131n\u0131 acaba ABD\u2019de kimler, ni\u00e7in ister?<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerin kaybedenleri ve kazananlar\u0131 olur. \u201cBu i\u015fte herkes kaybetti\u201d gibi de\u011ferlendirmelere hi\u00e7 kat\u0131lmam. Sahada t\u00fcm taraflar kaybediyorsa, sahan\u0131n gerisinde ellerini ovu\u015fturan birileri mutlaka vard\u0131r. Herkes kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyorsa, ya birileri di\u011ferlerinden daha \u00e7ok kazan\u0131yordur, ya da orta vadede \u00f6yle olacakt\u0131r&#8230; K\u00f6rfezi \u0131s\u0131n\u0131yor. Mevcut durum, daha derin bir gerilime hatta s\u0131cak bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya do\u011fru geli\u015febilir. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12488,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[32],"class_list":["post-4473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-32"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4473\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}