{"id":4084,"date":"2018-09-16T13:46:16","date_gmt":"2018-09-16T10:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=4084"},"modified":"2024-03-07T11:16:41","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T08:16:41","slug":"suriyede-kim-ne-istiyor-16-09-2018-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=4084","title":{"rendered":"Suriye\u2019de kim ne istiyor? (16.09.2018) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>Tahran Zirvesi\u2019nde \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke baz\u0131 asgari m\u00fc\u015ftereklerde anla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve bu hususlar\u0131 bir bildirgeyle ilan etmi\u015flerdi. Zirve\u2019de Ba\u015fkan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen Rusya ve Suriye rejim g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u0130dlib\u2019i bombalamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Rusya D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Sergei Lavrov\u2019un cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bak\u0131lacak olursa, Rusya \u0130dlib\u2019deki \u201cinsani krizi hafifletmek i\u00e7in bir insani koridor a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yana\u201d olmakla birlikte, \u0130dlib\u2019i bombalamaya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde de devam edecek.<\/div>\n<div>Suriye\u2019deki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden yedi y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir s\u00fcre ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6zellikle son bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde h\u0131z kazanan diplomatik s\u00fcre\u00e7ler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131yla DEA\u015e\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Rusya ile \u0130ran deste\u011findeki rejim g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin elde etti\u011fi asker\u00ee&nbsp;\u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede sona erebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc vermekteydi. Fakat \u0130dlib krizi, Suriye\u2019deki insanl\u0131k trajedisinin \u00e7ok daha korkun\u00e7 h\u00e2le gelmesine sebep olabilecek sonu\u00e7lara gebe. Ama Suriye\u2019deki i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar bir yedi y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrmeyecek.<\/div>\n<div>Suriye\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n sona erme s\u00fcrecinde nas\u0131l bir siyasi tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini tahmin edebilmek i\u00e7in meseleye do\u011frudan ya da dolayl\u0131 olarak m\u00fcdahil olan \u00fclkelerin Suriye politikalar\u0131na de\u011fil, Do\u011fu Akdeniz ve Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesindeki hedeflerinin ne oldu\u011funa bakmak laz\u0131m.<\/div>\n<div>Rusya ile ba\u015flayal\u0131m&#8230; Putin, rejim g\u00fc\u00e7lerine Esad\u2019\u0131n kara ka\u015f\u0131, kara g\u00f6z\u00fc i\u00e7in yard\u0131m etmeye ba\u015flamad\u0131. Rus asker\u00ee&nbsp;deste\u011fi olmasayd\u0131, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc manzaran\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131. Rusya kendi ekonomisine b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fck getiren bu deste\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 stratejik hedefe ula\u015fabilmek i\u00e7in verdi.<\/div>\n<div>Birincisi, Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de \u201cben de var\u0131m\u201d demek. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle Rusya bir Akdeniz g\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde hem b\u00f6lgedeki hidrokarbon rezervleri hem de Avrupa-Uzak Do\u011fu ticaret yollar\u0131 konusunda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha da etkin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/div>\n<div>Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ikinci hedefi, Suriye\u2019deki asker\u00ee&nbsp;mevcudiyetini kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le getirmekti. Rusya bu \u00fclkedeki deniz ve hava \u00fcslerini modernize etti. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar bitse de oralardan \u00e7\u0131kmayacak. Art\u0131k Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da b\u00f6lgede bir \u201c\u00e7eki\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fc\u201d oldu\u011fundan s\u00f6z edilebilir.<\/div>\n<div>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ABD\u2019nin tek ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc operasyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirmek ve etkisizle\u015ftirmekti. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deniz ve hava unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019yi rahats\u0131z etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile.<\/div>\n<div>Rusya Suriye\u2019de \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc\u201d, yukar\u0131daki \u00fc\u00e7 hedefe ula\u015fmas\u0131nda kendisine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 oranda destekleyecek; bu stratejik hedeflere ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 zora sokacak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc giri\u015fime ayak direyecek.<\/div>\n<div>Di\u011fer bir akt\u00f6r \u0130ran&#8230; T\u0131pk\u0131 Moskova gibi Tahran da, Esad\u2019\u0131n hat\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in ya da \u00e7ok\u00e7a dillendirilen \u201cmezhep dayan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d i\u00e7in rejime destek vermiyor. Tahran kendi g\u00fcvenli\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndan uzak alanlarda bir ku\u015fak olu\u015fturarak temin etmek ve tehdit olarak alg\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkelere benzeri tehditleri y\u00f6neltmek istiyor. Tahran y\u00f6netiminin Yemen\u2019deki faaliyetleriyle, Suriye\u2019deki faaliyetleri -arka plandaki fikr\u00ee&nbsp;\u00e7er\u00e7eve a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan- birbirinden farkl\u0131 nitelikte de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla L\u00fcbnan-Suriye-Irak hatt\u0131 boyunca, \u0130srail ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 kendisine sald\u0131rmaktan \u201ccayd\u0131racak\u201d bir yap\u0131lanma pe\u015finde. Bunun i\u00e7in de, Suriye\u2019de rejimin kazanmas\u0131n\u0131, \u0130ran paramiliter g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin de bir \u015fekilde bu \u00fclkede kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmesini istiyor.<\/div>\n<div>\u0130dlib\u2019deki insani durum asl\u0131nda ne Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ne de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n umurunda. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hassasiyetlerini anlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 dile getiriyor ama bu krizi ortadan kald\u0131racak somut bir \u015fey yapm\u0131yorlar.<\/div>\n<div>ABD\u2019ye gelelim. Trump\u2019\u0131n bir Suriye politikas\u0131 yok. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Trump\u2019\u0131n bir d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 yok. Ama ABD\u2019nin bir d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 var. Bu politikay\u0131 uzunca bir s\u00fcredir ABD Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor. Onlar\u0131n da \u00fc\u00e7 temel hedefi var.<\/div>\n<div>Birincisi, Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde -ileride Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyiyle de birle\u015febilecek- bir K\u00fcrt devletinin kurulmas\u0131. B\u00f6ylece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki faaliyetlerinin engellenebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bir g\u00fcvenlik bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 ya da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131yla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kesilmesini hedefleyenler de \u015f\u00fcphesiz bu yakla\u015f\u0131ma destek veriyor.<\/div>\n<div>\u0130kincisi, Suriye\u2019nin bundan b\u00f6yle \u0130srail i\u00e7in bir tehdit olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131. Zaten Suriye bug\u00fcnk\u00fc h\u00e2liyle en az 30 sene kendisini toparlayamayacakt\u0131r. Kurulacak devletin hem ABD\u2019nin hem de Suriye\u2019nin \u201cdostu\u201d olarak, Suriye \u00fczerinde bir sigorta kutusu fonksiyonu ifa edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler de var.<\/div>\n<div>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, b\u00f6lgedeki silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n, petrol \u00fcreten rejimler \u00fczerinde bir bask\u0131 arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmas\u0131. D\u00fcn Irak\u2019ta bug\u00fcn Suriye\u2019de varl\u0131k g\u00f6steren bu gruplar\u0131n ileride Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun ba\u015fka b\u00f6lgelerine sevk edilerek \u201cvekil\u201d olarak kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/div>\n<div>Son olarak, AB \u00fclkeleri Suriye krizi konusunda bug\u00fcn sadece \u201cg\u00f6\u00e7\u201d konusuna odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumdalar. Onlar\u0131n yukar\u0131daki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin uzun vadeli stratejilerine benzer yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 yok. K\u0131sa vadede kendilerine y\u00f6nelebilecek insani ak\u0131nlar\u0131 \u00f6nlemenin pe\u015findeler&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tahran Zirvesi\u2019nde \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclke baz\u0131 asgari m\u00fc\u015ftereklerde anla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve bu hususlar\u0131 bir bildirgeyle ilan etmi\u015flerdi. Zirve\u2019de Ba\u015fkan Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen Rusya ve Suriye rejim g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u0130dlib\u2019i bombalamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Rusya D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Sergei Lavrov\u2019un cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bak\u0131lacak olursa, Rusya \u0130dlib\u2019deki \u201cinsani krizi hafifletmek i\u00e7in bir insani koridor a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yana\u201d olmakla birlikte, \u0130dlib\u2019i bombalamaya [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":12700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[9],"class_list":["post-4084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-9"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4084"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4084\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}