{"id":2008,"date":"2017-04-30T14:45:30","date_gmt":"2017-04-30T11:45:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=2008"},"modified":"2024-03-07T14:07:47","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:07:47","slug":"kuzey-kore-problemi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=2008","title":{"rendered":"Kuzey Kore problemi (30.04.2017)T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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1990’lar\u0131n sonundan itibaren d\u00f6nemsel olarak \u015fahit olundu\u011fu \u00fczere Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda bir kez daha gerilim y\u00fckseldi. 1950-1953 aras\u0131nda cereyan eden Kore Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana b\u00f6lgede tansiyon hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015fti. Kore\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan taraflar aras\u0131nda 1953\u2019te yap\u0131lan ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 bug\u00fcne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f antla\u015fmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclemedi. 1975\u2019te BM Genel Kurulu\u2019nun, 1996\u2019da ise BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin taraflara yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lara ra\u011fmen G\u00fcney ve Kuzey, aralar\u0131nda teknik olarak devam eden sava\u015f durumunu hukuken sona erdirecek imzalar\u0131 atmad\u0131lar. Dahas\u0131 Kuzey Kore 1994\u2019ten 2013\u2019e kadar alt\u0131 defa ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmlerine uymayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kuzey Kore 1962\u2019de ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 n\u00fckleer program\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 1965 ve 1979\u2019da iki n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6r in\u015fa etmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131. 1980’lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ise n\u00fckleer silah program\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gizlilik i\u00e7inde y\u00fcr\u00fctmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bir yandan n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken bir yandan da 1985\u2019te N\u00fckleer Silahlar\u0131n Yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6nleme Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 onaylayan Kuzey Kore, Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (UAEA) taleplerine ra\u011fmen bu antla\u015fman\u0131n bir\u00e7ok gere\u011fini yerine getirmedi. Pyongyang\u2019\u0131n bu oyalama takti\u011fi kendi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sonu\u00e7 verdi. ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde UAEA ile diyalo\u011fa devam edermi\u015f gibi davran\u0131rken, n\u00fckleer silah \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na da b\u00fct\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131yla devam eden Kuzey Kore nihayet 2003\u2019te kesin bi\u00e7imde N\u00fckleer Silahlar\u0131n Yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6nleme Antla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7ekildi. Sadece iki y\u0131l sonra da n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip oldu\u011funu kabul etti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pyongyang 2006\u2019da ilk n\u00fckleer silah denemesini ba\u015far\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdikten sonra hem yeni denemeler yapmaya devam etti, hem de n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yabilen g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc f\u00fcze teknolojisini geli\u015ftirdi. Mevcut Kuzey Kore Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kim Jong-un\u2019un 2012\u2019de g\u00f6reve gelmesinden sonra \u00fclkenin n\u00fckleer program\u0131 yeni bir safhaya girdi. Kim roket program\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131rken, n\u00fckleer denemelere de devam etti. ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin sert diplomatik tepkilerine ra\u011fmen ne Kim\u2019in meydan okuyan s\u00f6yleminin dozunda bir azalma oldu ne de n\u00fckleer program\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonraki b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne \u00fc\u00e7 soruya cevapla devam edelim.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birinci Soru: Kuzey Kore ABD\u2019ye, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019ye ya da Japonya\u2019ya n\u00fckleer bir sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunursa ne olur?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle bir davran\u0131\u015f ancak \u2018\u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131k\u2019 kelimesiyle nitelenebilecek olsa da, Kim Jong-un\u2019un davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tahlil edenler bunun ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyorlar. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019taki \u2018Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 Garantili \u0130mha\u2019 (MAD) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sayesinde ABD ve SSCB n\u00fckleer silahlara ba\u015fvurmam\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Kuzey Kore liderinin ne ile cayd\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fini tahmin etmek ise m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Yine de, n\u00fckleer bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi durumunda Kuzey Kore\u2019ye ABD taraf\u0131ndan misliyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fini iddia edenler \u00e7o\u011funlukta.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci Soru: Kuzey Kore neyi hedefliyor?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ne kadar \u00e7ok n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirirse geli\u015ftirsin Kuzey Kore\u2019nin k\u00fcresel bir akt\u00f6r olamayaca\u011f\u0131, hele ABD ile bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan galip \u00e7\u0131kamayaca\u011f\u0131 ortada. Kim\u2019in amac\u0131 kendisine y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 cayd\u0131rmak veya bertaraf etmek ise, ne d\u00fc\u015fman karde\u015fi G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin ne de ba\u015fka bir \u00fclkenin Kuzey Kore\u2019ye sald\u0131rmak gibi a\u00e7\u0131k bir niyeti var. Bu durumda geriye iki ihtimal kal\u0131yor: Ya Kim 28 ya\u015f\u0131nda oturdu\u011fu liderlik koltu\u011funu iyice sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015fmanlara meydan okuma takti\u011fi izliyor, ya da perde gerisinde iplerini tutan bir di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00f6ylediklerini yap\u0131yor. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda art\u0131k belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan vekaleten m\u00fccadelenin kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir arac\u0131 h\u00e2line geliyor. Her iki ihtimalde de ate\u015fle oynuyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Soru: ABD bu gerilimden fayda sa\u011flayabilir mi?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump, s\u00fcratli bi\u00e7imde ba\u015far\u0131 elde edemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcrse, Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda ABD silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerinin de kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, a\u011f\u0131r maliyetleri olabilecek bir s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 istemez. \u00dcstelik bu durumun t\u0131pk\u0131 1950\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi \u00c7in\u2019in de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilme ihtimalinden endi\u015fe duyar. ABD i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 temel alternatif bulunuyor: \u00c7in\u2019in de d\u00e2hil olaca\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131larla Kim\u2019in mevcut politikas\u0131n\u0131 yumu\u015fatmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak; \u00c7in\u2019in z\u0131mni muvafakat\u0131yla k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli ve ani bir vuru\u015fla Kuzey Kore\u2019yi etkisizle\u015ftirmek; b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fte Kuzey Kore\u2019ye ama asl\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik etkili ve cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir ittifak mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n kurulmas\u0131. \u0130lk iki alternatifin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali zay\u0131f. Zaten ABD\u2019nin as\u0131l arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131, orta vadede \u00c7in\u2019i \u2018\u00e7evreleme\u2019 oldu\u011fundan Trump\u2019\u0131n mevcut krizi b\u00f6lgede \u2018saflar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak\u2019 i\u00e7in kullanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Tabii mevcut krizi istedi\u011fi gibi kontrol edebildi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1990’lar\u0131n sonundan itibaren d\u00f6nemsel olarak \u015fahit olundu\u011fu \u00fczere Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda bir kez daha gerilim y\u00fckseldi. 1950-1953 aras\u0131nda cereyan eden Kore Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana b\u00f6lgede tansiyon hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fmemi\u015fti. Kore\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan taraflar aras\u0131nda 1953\u2019te yap\u0131lan ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131 bug\u00fcne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f antla\u015fmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclemedi. 1975\u2019te BM Genel Kurulu\u2019nun, 1996\u2019da ise BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin taraflara yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lara ra\u011fmen […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12915,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-2008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-10"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2008"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2008\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}