{"id":1981,"date":"2017-02-26T14:38:33","date_gmt":"2017-02-26T12:38:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1981"},"modified":"2024-03-07T14:17:27","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:17:27","slug":"menbic-mi-rakka-mi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1981","title":{"rendered":"Menbi\u00e7 mi, Rakka m\u0131? (26.02.2017) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrk Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ve onun deste\u011findeki \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin El-Bab\u2019\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc DEA\u015e\u2019tan temizlemesiyle F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 harek\u00e2t\u0131nda yeni bir a\u015famaya gelindi. Bundan sonra, harek\u00e2t\u0131n stratejik hedeflerine uygun yeni ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131klar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Suriye\u2019deki mevcut durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin devam\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla s\u00f6z konusu tehditlerin bertaraf edilmesi ve T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin s\u0131zmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlikli h\u00e2le getirilmesi i\u00e7in harek\u00e2t\u0131n devam\u0131 zaruri.<\/span><\/p>\n

F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda dile getirilen en \u00f6nemli stratejik hedef, \u00c7obanbey, Cerablus, El-Bab ve Menbi\u00e7 aras\u0131nda kalan alan\u0131n ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinden tamamen ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131larak, bir g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olu\u015fturulmas\u0131yd\u0131. B\u00f6ylece, bir yandan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgelerinden ka\u00e7an Suriyeli sivillerin yerle\u015ftirilebilece\u011fi bir alan olu\u015fturulabilecek, di\u011fer yandan da T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc tehdidi \u00f6nlenecektir. Bunlara ek olarak, Ayn-el Arab\u2019dan Afrin\u2019e uzanan bir PYD\/YPG koridorunun olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilecekti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn itibar\u0131yla harek\u00e2t\u0131n en \u00f6nemli hedeflerine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. DEA\u015e i\u00e7in sembolik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan Dab\u0131k\u2019tan sonra, ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn stratejik kalelerinden El-Bab\u2019\u0131n da temizlenmesi son 3 y\u0131lda \u00f6rg\u00fcte kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen en b\u00fcy\u00fck asker\u00ee ba\u015far\u0131 olarak kayda ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bundan sonra hedefin ne olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda ise iki farkl\u0131 se\u00e7enek Ankara\u2019n\u0131n masas\u0131nda duruyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde tesis etmeyi hedefledi\u011fi g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin g\u00fcneydo\u011fu k\u00f6\u015fesini olu\u015fturan Menbi\u00e7\u2019in ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc PYD\/YPG\u2019den al\u0131nmas\u0131. Burada da yine iki farkl\u0131 se\u00e7enek var. Menbi\u00e7 ya TSK destekli \u00d6SO g\u00fc\u00e7leri taraf\u0131ndan\u00a0-El-Bab\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi-<\/em>\u00a0ter\u00f6r unsurlar\u0131ndan temizlenecek, ya da ABD\u2019nin telkiniyle ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc PYD\/YPG Menbi\u00e7\u2019ten F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusuna \u00e7ekilecek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obama y\u00f6netimi \u00e7e\u015fitli vesilelerle, ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn Menbi\u00e7\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f ama T\u00fcrkiye kendi istihbarat kaynaklar\u0131na dayanarak bu bilginin ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kartm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Trump y\u00f6netimi ise hen\u00fcz ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn Menbi\u00e7\u2019i bo\u015faltmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir kararl\u0131l\u0131k sergilemi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Masada duran ikinci se\u00e7enek ise Rakka. ABD bir s\u00fcredir Rakka\u2019y\u0131 DEA\u015e\u2019\u0131n elinden almak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Fakat burada T\u00fcrkiye ile ABD aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmazl\u0131k s\u00f6z konusu. Ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc PKK\u2019yla organik ba\u011f i\u00e7indeki PYD\/YPG\u2019nin yer alaca\u011f\u0131 Rakka\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik bir harek\u00e2ta hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde destek vermeyece\u011fini T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f durumda. Trump y\u00f6netimi ise PYD\/YPG\u2019ye asker\u00ee m\u00fchimmat deste\u011fi vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, Rakka sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tam merkezine bu ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc oturtmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bundan sonraki a\u015famalar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ne sonu\u00e7 verece\u011fine g\u00f6re \u015fekil alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f6rt ihtimal s\u00f6z konusu olabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD anla\u015f\u0131rlar. PYD\/YPG F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusuna \u00e7ekilerek Menbi\u00e7\u2019i \u00d6SO\u2019ya devreder. ABD Rakka harek\u00e2t\u0131na bu ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaz. Bu durumda TSK ve \u00d6SO, koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle birlikte yap\u0131lacak bu harek\u00e2ta gerekli d\u00fczeyde destek verebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD k\u0131smen anla\u015f\u0131rlar. PYD\/YPG Menbi\u00e7\u2019i bo\u015falt\u0131r. Ama Rakka\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik harek\u00e2ta da i\u015ftirak eder. Bu durumda T\u00fcrkiye, F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stratejik hedefi olan g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgeyi tesis ederek tamamen \u00d6SO denetimine sokar. Rakka harek\u00e2t\u0131na ise kat\u0131lmaz.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD ne Menbi\u00e7 ne de Rakka konusunda anla\u015fabilir. Bu durumda \u00d6SO, PYD\/YPG ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc Menbi\u00e7\u2019ten \u00e7\u0131kartmak i\u00e7in yeni bir harek\u00e2t ba\u015flatabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD Menbi\u00e7 ve Rakka konusunda anla\u015famaz. Fakat iki \u00fclke ili\u015fkilerinde bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli m\u00fczakere ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan FET\u00d6 eleba\u015f\u0131n\u0131n iadesi ve FET\u00d6\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nacak tedbirler konusunda anla\u015fabilir. Bu durumda h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ter\u00f6r unsurlar\u0131ndan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f alan, g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olarak tescillenir. ABD de s\u00f6z konusu alan\u0131n BM d\u00fczeyinde g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge stat\u00fcs\u00fcne sokulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in destek verir…<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6rt ihtimalden hangisinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini ya da burada akl\u0131m\u0131za gelmeyen bir ba\u015fka durumun ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrk Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ve onun deste\u011findeki \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin El-Bab\u2019\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc DEA\u015e\u2019tan temizlemesiyle F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 harek\u00e2t\u0131nda yeni bir a\u015famaya gelindi. Bundan sonra, harek\u00e2t\u0131n stratejik hedeflerine uygun yeni ad\u0131mlar\u0131n at\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131klar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Suriye\u2019deki mevcut durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin devam\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla s\u00f6z konusu tehditlerin bertaraf edilmesi ve T\u00fcrkiye-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-1981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-10"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1981","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1981"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1981\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1981"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1981"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1981"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}