{"id":1975,"date":"2017-02-12T14:37:09","date_gmt":"2017-02-12T12:37:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1975"},"modified":"2024-03-07T14:19:22","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:19:22","slug":"abdnin-iran-politikasi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1975","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran politikas\u0131 (12.02.2017) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin verdi\u011fi mesajlar, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturduktan sonra yava\u015f yava\u015f politikaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Net olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, Trump y\u00f6netimi, Obama y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran\u2019la yumu\u015fama politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyecek. Peki, yumu\u015faman\u0131n yerini t\u0131rmand\u0131rma m\u0131 al\u0131r, yoksa ili\u015fkiler eski h\u00e2line mi d\u00f6ner?<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u0131saca Obama d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. \u0130ran ile BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyesi be\u015f \u00fcye ve Almanya aras\u0131nda, Tahran y\u00f6netiminin n\u00fckleer program\u0131yla ilgili anla\u015fman\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra, Washington \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hatta DEA\u015e\u2019la m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda, Suriye\u2019deki \u0130ran asker\u00ee\u00a0varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc itiraz\u0131n\u0131 kesmi\u015fti. ABD Kongresi\u2019nde Obama\u2019n\u0131n bu politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir direni\u015f olsa da, bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesi bu anla\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019la ekonomik ve ticari ili\u015fkilerini canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u011fmeye basm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Bilhassa yolcu u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 ve kara vas\u0131talar\u0131 tedari\u011finde ba\u015fta Fransa ve Almanya olmak \u00fczere AB \u00fcyelerinin \u0130ran y\u00f6netimiyle pazarl\u0131klara ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131na \u015fahit olmu\u015ftuk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump ise Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran politikas\u0131n\u0131n, bu \u00fclkenin \u201cter\u00f6ristlere\u201d destek vermesini cesaretlendirdi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Hatta a\u00e7\u0131k bir dille \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 \u201cbir numaral\u0131 ter\u00f6rist devlet\u201d ilan ediyor. Bu \u00f6ylesine keskin bir s\u00f6ylem ki, Trump\u2019\u0131n bu ifadeyi kullanmas\u0131ndan sonra art\u0131k Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckten kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net \u015fekilde s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Zira Washington\u2019un, ter\u00f6rist ilan etti\u011fi bir devletle yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olamayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi, tabii olarak, m\u00fcttefiklerinin de \u0130ran\u2019la s\u0131k\u0131 ekonomik ve ticari ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7ine girmesine ses \u00e7\u0131karmamas\u0131 beklenemez. Demek ki, Trump bir yandan \u201cyumu\u015fama\u201d ve \u201cyak\u0131nla\u015fma\u201d s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine tamamen son verecek, di\u011fer yandan da Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkilerini geli\u015ftirmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kesmesini isteyecek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu noktaya kadar fazlaca bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckmeyebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 1979\u2019dan ge\u00e7en y\u0131la kadar ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkileri zaten hep \u00e7ok problemliydi. Obama\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131ktaki son birka\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan uzla\u015fma \u00fcmidinin daha ye\u015feremeden solmas\u0131 \u00e7ok da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etkiye yol a\u00e7mayacakt\u0131r. Trump\u2019\u0131 as\u0131l zorlayacak olan, \u0130ran\u2019la ticaretin ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar sa\u011flayabilece\u011finin kokusunu alan Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerini geri at\u0131m att\u0131rmakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131, Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkileri dura\u011fanl\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131p, gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmaya karar vermesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle Trump iktidar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde bir ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131na \u015fahit olmayaca\u011f\u0131z. Buna dair herhangi bir somut i\u015faret yok. Fakat Trump y\u00f6netimi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da kendisine yak\u0131n y\u00f6netimler \u00fczerinden bir vekalet sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemeye kalkarsa, i\u015fte o zaman b\u00f6lge bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir karma\u015fa i\u00e7ine girer.<\/span><\/p>\n

George W. Bush\u2019un ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6neminde ve Obama\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk y\u0131llar\u0131nda, \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda bir silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali birka\u00e7 kez \u00e7ok ciddi olarak g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015fti. Riyad ve Tahran aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin ne durumda oldu\u011fu ortada. Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran L\u00fcbnan, Suriye, Irak ve Yemen\u2019de y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren bir m\u00fccadeleyi zaten \u00e7e\u015fitli silahl\u0131 gruplar \u00fczerinden, birbirleriyle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyorlar. Bu kez, do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelebilirler mi? Bu ihtimal i\u00e7in \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d demek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki emirlikler aras\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131 olu\u015fturma giri\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir s\u00fcredir \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015f birli\u011fi var. Bu \u00fclkelerin y\u00f6netimleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge politikalar\u0131n\u0131, do\u011frudan kendi varl\u0131klar\u0131na bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar. Ba\u015fka bir de\u011fi\u015fle, mesele ekonomik veya siyasi \u00e7\u0131karlar parantezinden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve Riyad i\u00e7in hayati bir h\u00e2l alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tahran y\u00f6netiminin Suudilerden hissetti\u011finden \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck ve do\u011frudan bir tehdidi, Riyad y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran\u2019dan alg\u0131lamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0131srarl\u0131 ve kendi i\u00e7inde tutarl\u0131 bir t\u0131rmand\u0131rma politikas\u0131 takip etmesi h\u00e2linde, y\u0131llard\u0131r teorik tart\u0131\u015fmalara konu olan Suudi-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ek olabilir. B\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, mevcut kuvvet yap\u0131lar\u0131yla, taraflardan birinin kazanmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ama t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bi\u00e7imde yara alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden tahmin edebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Y\u0131llard\u0131r bitmeyen ihtilaflar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemeyen Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin, yeni ve \u00e7ok y\u0131prat\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya herh\u00e2lde hi\u00e7 ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 yoktur.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin verdi\u011fi mesajlar, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturduktan sonra yava\u015f yava\u015f politikaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Net olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ki, Trump y\u00f6netimi, Obama y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran\u2019la yumu\u015fama politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyecek. Peki, yumu\u015faman\u0131n yerini t\u0131rmand\u0131rma m\u0131 al\u0131r, yoksa ili\u015fkiler eski h\u00e2line mi d\u00f6ner? K\u0131saca Obama d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m. \u0130ran ile BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyesi be\u015f […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12935,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-1975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-10"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1975\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}