{"id":1948,"date":"2016-12-11T14:26:35","date_gmt":"2016-12-11T12:26:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1948"},"modified":"2024-03-07T14:31:09","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:31:09","slug":"trumpin-dis-politikasi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1948","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 (11.12.2016) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f politika, politikan\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 alanda, devletlerle ve di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen h\u00e2lidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir devletin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilirken evvela \u2018i\u00e7ine\u2019 bak\u0131l\u0131r. Her \u015feyden evvel de Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 Unsurlar\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131r. Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 denilince, ana hatlar\u0131yla siyasi yap\u0131 ve karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi, asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7, ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, co\u011frafi ve topo\u011frafik \u00f6zellikler, n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131, sosyo-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel \u00f6zellikler, be\u015fer\u00ee sermayenin kalitesi, yenilik\u00e7ilik kapasitesi vs. fakt\u00f6rler dikkate al\u0131n\u0131r. Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc sabit bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ise de\u011fi\u015fkendir. Bu fakt\u00f6rlerin her birinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek sorunlar, do\u011frudan veya dolayl\u0131 olarak d\u0131\u015f politikay\u0131 da etkiler.ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilen Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n kabinesinde yer alacaklar\u0131n isimleri belli olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Atanan ya da atanma ihtimali olan isimlerden hareket ederek, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda takip edece\u011fi i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasete dair yorumlara bas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u00e7a rastlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Ki\u015filer elbette \u00f6nemlidir. Fakat sadece yeni atanan ki\u015filerin kim oldu\u011funa bak\u0131larak yap\u0131lan analizler s\u0131\u011f olur. Hele s\u00f6z konusu olan d\u0131\u015f politikaysa, \u00fcstelik ABD gibi bir hiper g\u00fcc\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 mercek alt\u0131na al\u0131nacaksa ki\u015filerin kim olduklar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken baz\u0131 hususlar bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan, Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 Unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika olu\u015fumuna katk\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6recelidir. Muhatab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n kim oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re bu katk\u0131 d\u00fczeyi de\u011fi\u015fir. Mesela, kendisinden zay\u0131f bir devlet kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tek ba\u015f\u0131na asker\u00ee g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir devlet, kendine denk ya da daha kuvvetli bir devletle sorun ya\u015f\u0131yorsa, m\u00fcttefik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girebilir, diplomasiye m\u00fcracaat eder ya da daha uzla\u015fmac\u0131 bir tutum tak\u0131nabilir. Birbirine benzeyen sosyo-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel, etnik ya da dinsel yap\u0131ya sahip devletlerin birbirleriyle ili\u015fkilerinde, ba\u015fkalar\u0131yla olan ili\u015fkilerinde kulland\u0131klar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buradan hareketle, Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikada ne yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin edebilmek i\u00e7in ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u00f6nemde ABD\u2019nin Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 Unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fekilde tahlil edilmesi gerekir. ABD\u2019nin siyasi yap\u0131s\u0131, anayasal sistemi, karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131nda team\u00fcl h\u00e2line gelmi\u015f uygulamalar bir\u00e7ok konuda oldu\u011fu gibi d\u0131\u015f politikada karar al\u0131rken de Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n diledi\u011fi gibi hareket etmesine imk\u00e2n vermez. Trump gibi Kongre\u2019nin her iki kanad\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa sahip olsa da, parti disiplini mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD\u2019de Ba\u015fkan Kongre \u00fcyelerini ikna etmek zorundad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu noktada ABD siyasetinin vazge\u00e7ilmez akt\u00f6rlerinden bask\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131kar gruplar\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri ve talepleri devreye girer.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bask\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131kar gruplar\u0131, tamamen ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kar sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in olu\u015fturulmu\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sekt\u00f6r birliklerinden (enerji, savunma sanayii, ila\u00e7, demir-\u00e7elik vb.) \u00fcyelerinin \u00e7e\u015fitli menfaatlerini savunmak i\u00e7in kurulmu\u015f meslek birliklerine (sendikalar, barolar, dernekler) ve etnik-dinsel lobilere kadar \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir yelpazeye yay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Bu gruplar hem Ba\u015fkan ve kabinesi, hem de Kongre \u00fcyelerine d\u00f6n\u00fck son derece yo\u011fun faaliyetler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrler. Sadece ba\u015fkent Washington\u2019da 4000\u2019den fazla ticari lobi kurulu\u015funun i\u015fi g\u00fcc\u00fc ABD\u2019nin i\u00e7 veya d\u0131\u015f siyasi kararlar\u0131na, aralar\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 devletlerin de bulundu\u011fu \u2018m\u00fc\u015fterilerinin\u2019 ad\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00e2l b\u00f6yle olunca, Trump\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar hangi bask\u0131 ve \u00e7\u0131kar gruplar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fini alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu -dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kimlere bor\u00e7lu kald\u0131\u011f\u0131- bundan sonra da kimlerin etkisi alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f politika analizlerine d\u00e2hil edilmelidir. Ayn\u0131 durum Kongre \u00fcyeleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erlidir. Yeni ABD H\u00fck\u00fcmeti d\u0131\u015f politikadaki ana hedeflerini tespit ederken, kendisini destekleyen gruplar\u0131n taleplerini dikkate alacak ve onlar\u0131n beklentilerine g\u00f6re hareket edecektir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump rakibine g\u00f6re daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir se\u00e7im stratejisiyle ve ABD se\u00e7im sistemi sayesinde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kazand\u0131. \u015eimdi yeni bir sayfa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor. Se\u00e7im s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u00f6ylediklerinin de\u011fil, yukar\u0131da \u00f6zetlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlar\u0131n \u015fekillendirece\u011fi politikalar\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 sistemin yap\u0131s\u0131, ABD\u2019nin muhatab\u0131 olan her bir akt\u00f6r\u00fcn kendi \u00f6zellikleri, \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 saiklerle hareket eden devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin davran\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imleri gibi daha onlarca parametrenin bile\u015fimi de, Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika hedeflerine ula\u015fabilmesinde belirleyici rol oynayacak.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2018\u015eu koltu\u011fa, \u015fu isim geldi. \u00d6yleyse, \u015f\u00f6yle olacak\u2019 gibi basit \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlarla hi\u00e7bir devletin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiremeyece\u011fimiz, son derece kompleks bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iyoruz.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

D\u0131\u015f politika, politikan\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 alanda, devletlerle ve di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerle y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen h\u00e2lidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bir devletin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilirken evvela \u2018i\u00e7ine\u2019 bak\u0131l\u0131r. Her \u015feyden evvel de Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 Unsurlar\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131r. Mill\u00ee G\u00fc\u00e7 denilince, ana hatlar\u0131yla siyasi yap\u0131 ve karar alma mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi, asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7, ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, co\u011frafi ve topo\u011frafik \u00f6zellikler, n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131, sosyo-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel \u00f6zellikler, be\u015fer\u00ee sermayenin kalitesi, yenilik\u00e7ilik kapasitesi vs. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12958,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-11"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12958"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}