{"id":1932,"date":"2016-11-07T14:22:47","date_gmt":"2016-11-07T12:22:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1932"},"modified":"2024-03-07T14:39:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T11:39:34","slug":"abdde-siyasi-kaos-ihtimali-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1932","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019DE S\u0130YAS\u0130 KAOS \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130 (07.11.2016) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak ABD se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde Demokrat Parti aday\u0131 Hillary Clinton t\u00fcm anketlerin ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re Cumhuriyet\u00e7i aday Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6n\u00fcnde gidiyor. Fakat \u00f6zellikle son 10 g\u00fcnde Trump\u2019\u0131n ata\u011fa ge\u00e7erek aradaki fark\u0131 iyice kapad\u0131\u011f\u0131 net \u015fekilde ortada. Bunda Trump\u2019\u0131n geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi yeni se\u00e7im vaatleri etkili olmad\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Clinton\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 skandallarla ilgili. Son olarak Federal Soru\u015fturma B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (FBI) Clinton hakk\u0131nda yeni bir soru\u015fturma ba\u015flatmas\u0131 ABD se\u00e7meninin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde daha Clinton\u2019\u0131n inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ciddi \u015f\u00fcpheler uyanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amerikan siyasi tarihinde ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7im vaatlerinin de\u011fil, ki\u015filiklerinin, s\u00f6ylemlerinin ve skandallar\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, magazin boyutu bu kadar y\u00fcksek ba\u015fka bir se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131 daha ya\u015fanmad\u0131. \u00dclkenin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politika geli\u015ftirememeleri mi adaylar\u0131 kampanyalar\u0131n\u0131 magazinle\u015ftirmeye itti, yoksa giderek \u00fclke siyasetine yabanc\u0131la\u015fan pop k\u00fclt\u00fcr \u00e7a\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7menlerinin beklentileri mi, \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r. Ama bir ger\u00e7ek var ki, Amerikan siyasi jargonu hi\u00e7 bu kadar s\u0131\u011fla\u015fmam\u0131\u015f, hi\u00e7 bu kadar s\u00fcflile\u015fmemi\u015fti.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u015e\u00fcphesiz bu se\u00e7im d\u00f6neminin kalitesi ve seviyesi, gelecek y\u0131llar i\u00e7in de bir g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yacak. \u0130ki geleneksel siyasi partinin kanaat \u00f6nderleri ve ideologlar\u0131 se\u00e7imin ard\u0131ndan \u015fapkalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlerine koyarak d\u00f6rt y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fimdiden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir yenilenme gayreti i\u00e7ine girmezlerse, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l sonraki ba\u015fkan se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak televizyon m\u00fcnazaralar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda muhtemelen ekranlara \u2018+13\u2019 i\u015fareti konulacak. Tabii bir sonraki se\u00e7im i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt y\u0131l beklenirse!<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu son c\u00fcmleyi son g\u00fcnlerde ABD\u2019nin ciddi bas\u0131n organlar\u0131nda dillendirilmeye ba\u015flayan bir endi\u015feden hareketle yazd\u0131m. Dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken baz\u0131 siyasi analizciler ABD\u2019nin bir siyasi kaosun e\u015fi\u011finde olabilece\u011fini ifade ediyorlar. Kaos endi\u015fesinin iki temel sebebi var.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, Clinton\u2019\u0131n ipi g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcslemesi h\u00e2linde daha ilk g\u00fcnden \u2018topal \u00f6rdek\u2019 durumuna d\u00fc\u015fme ihtimalinin olu\u015fu. Yani 435 \u00fcyesinin tamam\u0131 yenilenecek Temsilciler Meclisi ve 34 \u00fcyesi yenilenecek Senato\u2019da \u00e7o\u011funluk Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerde olursa ABD yeni d\u00f6neme krizle ba\u015flayabilir. Halen Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nde 247 Cumhuriyet\u00e7i, 186 Demokrat \u00fcye var. 3 koltuk bo\u015f. Senato\u2019da ise 54\u2019e 44 yine Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler \u00f6nde. 2 sandalye ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zlar\u0131n. Demokratlar\u0131n bu tabloyu lehlerine \u00e7evirememeleri durumunda Clinton\u2019u \u00e7ok zor bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 bekliyor. Yasama organ\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fine sahip olmayan bir ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n siyasi hedeflerine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar g\u00fc\u00e7 olabilece\u011fine Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n son iki y\u0131l\u0131nda \u015fahit olduk.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci endi\u015fe sebebi ise \u2018azil mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n\u2019 i\u015fletilmesi ihtimali. Trump\u2019\u0131n son haftalarda bilin\u00e7li olarak Clinton\u2019\u0131n skandallar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131, rakibinin muhtemel galibiyeti h\u00e2linde, onun Kongre taraf\u0131ndan azledilebilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli ve yeterli altyap\u0131y\u0131 haz\u0131rlama \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak yorumlayanlar var. FBI da hukuki delilleri toplamaya \u015fimdiden ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcne kadar hi\u00e7bir ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 azledilmedi. Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nin haklar\u0131nda azil karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu 17. Ba\u015fkan Andrew Johnson ve Hillary Clinton\u2019un kocas\u0131 42. Ba\u015fkan Bill Clinton, Senato\u2019daki oylamalarda azledilmekten son anda kurtuldular. 37. Ba\u015fkan Richard Nixon ise azledilmek \u00fczereyken istifa etmeyi tercih etti. Demokratlar\u0131n Kongre\u2019nin her iki kanad\u0131nda da az\u0131nl\u0131kta kalmalar\u0131 h\u00e2linde, kampanya s\u0131ras\u0131nda son derece keskin bir siyasi dil kullanmaya ba\u015flayan Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin Hillary Clinton i\u00e7in azil mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatmalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olarak kar\u015f\u0131lamamak laz\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 durumunda da ABD siyasetinde \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flamas\u0131 muhtemel. Hele Kongre\u2019de \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa sahip olur ve Obama d\u00f6neminde zor da olsa y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe sokulan sosyal g\u00fcvenlik reformunu geriye almaya kalkar, \u00fcst\u00fcne bir de g\u00f6\u00e7men kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 sert \u00f6nlemlere y\u00f6nelirse, Trump ABD tarihinde g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik oranda bir halk tepkisiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir. Dar gelirli kesimlerin, marjinalle\u015ftirilenlerin ve \u2018yeni\u2019 g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck edece\u011fi kitlesel eylemler Ferguson\u2019da ve Baton Rouge\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gerilimli ge\u00e7en ba\u015fkanl\u0131k kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ABD siyasetinde sular\u0131n durulmamas\u0131 h\u00e2linde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin de bundan olumsuz etkilenebilece\u011fini herh\u00e2lde s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yok…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak ABD se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde Demokrat Parti aday\u0131 Hillary Clinton t\u00fcm anketlerin ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re Cumhuriyet\u00e7i aday Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6n\u00fcnde gidiyor. Fakat \u00f6zellikle son 10 g\u00fcnde Trump\u2019\u0131n ata\u011fa ge\u00e7erek aradaki fark\u0131 iyice kapad\u0131\u011f\u0131 net \u015fekilde ortada. Bunda Trump\u2019\u0131n geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi yeni se\u00e7im vaatleri etkili olmad\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Clinton\u2019\u0131n y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 skandallarla ilgili. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12985,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-11"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1932\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}