{"id":1800,"date":"2016-01-10T13:43:09","date_gmt":"2016-01-10T11:43:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1800"},"modified":"2024-03-07T16:48:45","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T13:48:45","slug":"uluslararasi-iliskilerde-onumuzu-gorebilmek-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1800","title":{"rendered":"Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rebilmek (10.01.2016) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Son birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r uluslararas\u0131 siyasette ard\u0131 ard\u0131na \u00f6ylesine beklenmedik geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor ki, devletlerin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerini planlayarak y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler disiplininin teori ve yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u015fahit oldu\u011funuz geli\u015fmelerin ana sebeplerini a\u00e7\u0131klamakta yetersiz kald\u0131klar\u0131 gibi, olaylar\u0131n ne y\u00f6ne do\u011fru geli\u015febilece\u011fi konusunda tahmin yapabilmeye imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayacak ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 da sunmuyorlar. S\u00f6z konusu durum, b\u00f6lgesel krizlerin par\u00e7as\u0131 olan yahut onlara yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde yer alan \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu kadar, k\u00fcresel siyasette s\u00f6z sahibi olma iddias\u0131nda bulunan devletlerde de ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Suudi-\u0130ran gerginli\u011finden, Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer denemesine ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Suriye siyasetine kadar \u00e7ok geni\u015f yelpazede yer alan konulara ili\u015fkin olarak ABD, AB \u00fclkeleri, \u00c7in veya b\u00f6lgemizde yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirmeler i\u00e7erik bak\u0131m\u0131ndan bazen birbirinden farkl\u0131l\u0131k arz etmekle birlikte \u00f6z\u00fc itibariyle ayn\u0131 noktada duruyorlar. T\u00fcm\u00fc k\u0131sa vadeli ve s\u00fcratle yanl\u0131\u015flanabilen nitelikte. Ne bilim adamlar\u0131, ne emekli ya da muvazzaf b\u00fcrokratlar ne de siyaset\u00e7iler kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fumuz bu \u201cak\u0131\u015fkan\u201d uluslararas\u0131 ortam\u0131 ayaklar\u0131 yere basan ve uzun vadeli bir perspektifle tetkik edip, kal\u0131c\u0131 politik alternatifler \u00fcretebilme imk\u00e2n\u0131na sahipler. K\u00fcresel siyaset alan\u0131 her g\u00fcn daha ak\u0131\u015fkan, daha d\u00fczensiz ve daha tahmin edilemez bir yap\u0131ya b\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kimileri mevcut uluslararas\u0131 atmosferin evvela b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ard\u0131ndan da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini dile getirerek, k\u00fcresel felaket senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131yorlar. Kimileri ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n h\u00e2len \u00f6nlenebilir oldu\u011fu ve devletlerin eninde sonunda rasyonel hareket ederek, muayyen bir e\u015fi\u011fi a\u015fmadan denetlenebilir bir istikrar ortam\u0131 \u00fczerinde mutabakata varaca\u011f\u0131 iyimserli\u011fini ta\u015f\u0131yorlar. Bu taban tabana z\u0131t bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ikisi de, dayand\u0131klar\u0131 arg\u00fcmanlardan dolay\u0131 kendi i\u00e7lerinde tutarl\u0131. Fakat g\u00fcvenilirlik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan birinin di\u011ferine ye\u011f tutulmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki uluslararas\u0131 siyasetin bu kadar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez olu\u015funun d\u00f6rt temel sebebi var.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, k\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde d\u00fczen kurucu ve istikrar sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7ten s\u00f6z edilmesi art\u0131k m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. \u201cAmerikan Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131\u201d sona erdi. Halen hiperg\u00fc\u00e7 olma \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131sa bile, ABD\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 sistemin b\u0131rak\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bile denetleyebilmesi s\u00f6z konusu edilemez.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, \u0130ki Kutuplu D\u00fcnya D\u00fczeni\u2019nin sona ermesinden sonra uluslararas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin korunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bel ba\u011flanan Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Te\u015fkilat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu i\u015flevi yerine getiremedi\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Te\u015fkilat\u0131n bu sorumlulu\u011fu hakk\u0131yla ifa edebilmesi i\u00e7in reforme edilebilmesi de, mevcut konjokt\u00fcrde m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, klasik uluslararas\u0131 sistemin temel akt\u00f6rler olan devletler mevcudiyetlerini muhafaza etmekle birlikte, ulus-\u00f6tesi ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar-\u00f6tesi yeni uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rler, sistemin \u201cistisnai\u201d ve \u201car\u0131zi\u201d unsurlar\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karak, \u201cstandart\u201d unsurlar\u0131 h\u00e2line gelmektedirler. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131na itilebileceklerine yahut etkisizle\u015ftirilebileceklerine y\u00f6nelik hi\u00e7bir somut veri bulunmamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, ister \u201ckelebek etkisi\u201d teorisiyle ister \u201cd\u00fcnya art\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u00f6y oldu\u201d ifadesiyle a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ls\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 sistemde merkez-\u00e7evre ayr\u0131m\u0131 giderek yok olmaktad\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 sistemin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k merkezi ortadan kalkmaktad\u0131r. Bat\u0131\u2019dan Asya-Pasifik alan\u0131na bir g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi kaymas\u0131ndan s\u00f6z edilebilse de, yeni g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar, b\u00f6lgesel depremlerin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u00e7\u0131 etkiler kimi zaman \u201c\u00e7evre\u201dyi merkez k\u0131lmakta, kimi zaman da bu ayr\u0131m\u0131 tamamen anlams\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bilinen d\u00fcnya tarihi boyunca daha evvel de ya\u015fanan b\u00f6yle kriz ortamlar\u0131ndan en az hasarla \u00e7\u0131kabilmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekenlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda \u015fu \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fey geliyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r riskle\u201d hareket etmek, fevri tepkilerden uzak durmak, teenniyi d\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n temel \u00e7er\u00e7evesi h\u00e2line getirmek.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, karar al\u0131rken olaylara m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nlerden bakabilmek. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihbarat verilerinin, birbirleriyle tenakuz h\u00e2linde olsalar bile, de\u011fi\u015fik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan bakabilen yap\u0131larca analiz edilmesine imk\u00e2n veren de\u011ferlendirme mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmak.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, kat\u0131 ittifak yap\u0131lar\u0131ndan ziyade esnek ve manevra alan\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 i\u015fbirliklerini tesis edebilmek…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Son birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r uluslararas\u0131 siyasette ard\u0131 ard\u0131na \u00f6ylesine beklenmedik geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor ki, devletlerin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerini planlayarak y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler disiplininin teori ve yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde \u015fahit oldu\u011funuz geli\u015fmelerin ana sebeplerini a\u00e7\u0131klamakta yetersiz kald\u0131klar\u0131 gibi, olaylar\u0131n ne y\u00f6ne do\u011fru geli\u015febilece\u011fi konusunda tahmin yapabilmeye imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayacak ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 da sunmuyorlar. S\u00f6z konusu durum, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13238,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-11"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1800"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1800\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}