{"id":1787,"date":"2016-01-03T15:41:56","date_gmt":"2016-01-03T13:41:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1767"},"modified":"2024-03-07T16:50:42","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T13:50:42","slug":"turk-dis-politikasinda-2016nin-gundemi-03-01-2016-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1787","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda 2016\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcndemi (03.01.2016) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

2015 T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2003\u2019ten bu yana en yo\u011fun y\u0131l oldu. Suriye\u2019de devam eden kriz sebebiyle bir yandan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki g\u00fcvenlik hassasiyeti y\u00fckselirken, di\u011fer yandan da b\u00f6lgeden gelen m\u00fcltecilerin say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artt\u0131. Suriye ve onunla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fmeler do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ABD, Rusya, \u0130ran, Irak ve Arap Birli\u011fi ile olan ili\u015fkilerinde gerginlikler ya\u015fanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. S\u0131n\u0131r ihlali yapan Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle Ankara-Moskova hatt\u0131nda y\u00fckselen gerilim yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde de s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 2016\u2019da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlarla problemin daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilebilir. Ama belli ki, Suriye merkezli olarak Orta Do\u011fu konular\u0131 T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015fanlar\u0131n mesailerinin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc almaya devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, 2015\u2019te bir s\u00fcredir buzdolab\u0131nda olan T\u00fcrkiye-Avrupa Birli\u011fi ili\u015fkilerine yeni bir heyecan geldi. Her \u015feyin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi gitmesi durumunda ekim ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrk vatanda\u015flar\u0131na AB taraf\u0131ndan vize uygulanmas\u0131na son verilecek. \u015eahsen ben Almanya, Avusturya, Fransa, Hollanda gibi baz\u0131 devletlerin son anda yan \u00e7izebilece\u011finden h\u00e2l\u00e2 endi\u015feliyim. \u0130ngiltere ise zaten alan d\u0131\u015f\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde al\u0131nan karar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan taraflar aras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in yeni bir zeminin belirdi\u011fi Suriye meselesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nde gelen d\u0131\u015f politika konusu olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. DAE\u015e\u2019le m\u00fccadele konusunda ABD ve di\u011fer m\u00fcttefik \u00fclkelerle i\u015f birli\u011finin kapsam\u0131 geni\u015fleyebilir. Fakat Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyindeki PYD unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n faaliyetleriyle ilgili olarak su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kan Ankara-Washington g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderilebilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli \u015fartlar\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. Washington PYD\u2019yi siyasi ve asker\u00ee olarak desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ankara\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fc \u00f6rg\u00fctle organik ba\u011f i\u00e7indeki PYD\u2019nin daha geni\u015f bir alan kazanmas\u0131na g\u00f6z yummayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 defalarca a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu ak\u0131lda tutarsak, \u00fc\u00e7 durumla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, T\u00fcrkiye ABD\u2019yi ikna edebilir ve Amerikal\u0131lar PYD\u2019yi de ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc saymaya ba\u015flayarak, yard\u0131m\u0131 kesebilirler.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, ABD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi, DAE\u015e\u2019le m\u00fccadele devam ederken PYD\u2019yi desteklemek zorunda olduklar\u0131 konusunda ikna eder ve T\u00fcrkiye bu \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7mesiyle ilgili ilan etti\u011fi \u00e7ekincelerden vazge\u00e7ebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, ABD ve T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda mutabakat sa\u011flanamaz. PYD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hayati \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etti\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesini yapan T\u00fcrkiye tek tarafl\u0131 olarak asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahalede bulunabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Ba\u011fdat y\u00f6netimi ve Arap Birli\u011fi ile ili\u015fkilerini geren Musul konusunda 2016\u2019da kademeli bir yumu\u015famaya gidilmesini bekleyenleriniz olabilir. Ama mesele Musul\u2019un DAE\u015e\u2019ten temizlenmesinin \u00f6tesinde daha derin bir konudur. Ankara Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyinde nas\u0131l bir siyasi yap\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini kendi i\u00e7inde bir s\u00fcredir tart\u0131\u015fmaya devam etmektedir. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Irak ve Suriye\u2019de artan \u0130ran etkisinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ne kadar zarar verebilece\u011fi de de\u011ferlendirilmektedir. Kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7indeki geli\u015fmelerle de do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olan bu konuda Ankara\u2019n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7 odakl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atabilmesi ancak \u00fclke b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fc ter\u00f6r tehdidinin giderilmesiyle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki pozisyonuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u0130ran ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcc\u00fc ter\u00f6re verdi\u011fi destek de \u015fekillenecektir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u0131l\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikadaki s\u00fcrpriz geli\u015fmesi Ankara ile Tel Aviv aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalard\u0131. Baz\u0131 kesimlerden gelen \u2018Mavi Marmara tazminat\u0131\u2019 ve \u2018Gazze ablukas\u0131\u2019 odakl\u0131 itirazlara ra\u011fmen Ankara\u2019n\u0131n yeniden yak\u0131nla\u015fma iddialar\u0131n\u0131 yalanlamam\u0131\u015f olu\u015fu, dahas\u0131 Gazze ablukas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in hafifletilmesinin de yeterli olabilece\u011fi \u015feklindeki resm\u00ee a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, 2016\u2019da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ili\u015fkilerin b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ilik seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Her ne kadar T\u00fcrkiye-\u0130srail yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki do\u011falgaz\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye aktar\u0131lmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylense de, s\u00f6z konusu projenin fizibilitesi, finansman\u0131n temini ve in\u015faat\u0131 i\u00e7in en az be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k bir s\u00fcre gerekiyor. Yani bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na olacak i\u015f de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130srail\u2019in kendisinin ilan etti\u011fi enerji alanlar\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde Filistin devletinin de pay\u0131 oldu\u011funu, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bunun \u015fimdiden bir uluslararas\u0131 hukuk sorunu h\u00e2line gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do\u011fu Akdeniz deyince akla K\u0131br\u0131s da geliyor. Ada\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler 2016\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok me\u015fgul edecek. Zira \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle bahar aylar\u0131nda Ada\u2019n\u0131n iki taraf\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm referandumu yap\u0131lacak. \u0130ki ihtimal var. Ya taraflar\u0131n ikisi de \u2018evet\u2019 diyecek ve Ada\u2019da yeni d\u00fczene ge\u00e7ilecek, ya da Annan Referandumunda oldu\u011fu gibi taraflardan biri ya da ikisi birden \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc reddedecek. \u0130ki ihtimalde de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yo\u011fun diplomatik \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermesi gerekecek. Birle\u015fme durumunda, Ada\u2019daki T\u00fcrk asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n durumu, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve tazminatlar ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok konu bu kez BM ve AB d\u00fczeyinde Ankara\u2019n\u0131n dikkatine sunulacak. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmamas\u0131 h\u00e2lindeyse, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin KKTC konusunda bug\u00fcne kadarkinden \u2018farkl\u0131\u2019 bir tav\u0131r i\u00e7ine girmesi beklenebilir. Yani 2016\u2019da K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019ta danan\u0131n kuyru\u011fu kopabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2015 T\u00fcrk d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2003\u2019ten bu yana en yo\u011fun y\u0131l oldu. Suriye\u2019de devam eden kriz sebebiyle bir yandan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki g\u00fcvenlik hassasiyeti y\u00fckselirken, di\u011fer yandan da b\u00f6lgeden gelen m\u00fcltecilerin say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artt\u0131. Suriye ve onunla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fmeler do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ABD, Rusya, \u0130ran, Irak ve Arap Birli\u011fi ile olan ili\u015fkilerinde gerginlikler […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13246,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11],"class_list":["post-1787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete","tag-11"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1787\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}