{"id":1764,"date":"2015-12-27T15:40:59","date_gmt":"2015-12-27T13:40:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1764"},"modified":"2024-03-07T16:53:32","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T13:53:32","slug":"2016da-kuresel-siyaset-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1764","title":{"rendered":"2016\u2019da K\u00fcresel Siyaset (27.12.2015) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi, 2015\u2019in son yaz\u0131s\u0131nda da genel bir k\u00fcresel siyaset de\u011ferlendirmesi yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Gelecek hafta da 2016\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin muhtemel d\u0131\u015f politika \u00f6nceliklerine g\u00f6z ataca\u011f\u0131m…<\/span><\/p>\n

2016\u2019da d\u00fcnyada en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulacak geli\u015fme kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de yap\u0131lacak ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi olacak. Bug\u00fcnlerde Cumhuriyet\u00e7i ve Demokrat Parti’nin ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131 eyalet eyalet dola\u015farak, delegelerin deste\u011fini toplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Muhtemelen haziran ortas\u0131nda her iki partinin de ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131 kesinle\u015fmi\u015f olacak. Takip eden aylarda da iki aday aras\u0131nda k\u0131yas\u0131ya bir ba\u015fkanl\u0131k yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>\n

ABD se\u00e7iminde Demokrat Parti aday\u0131n\u0131n Hillary Clinton olaca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor. Cumhuriyet\u00e7i kampta ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tablo s\u00f6z konusu. Her ne kadar s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemleri y\u00fcz\u00fcnden Donald Trump\u2019un ismini s\u0131k s\u0131k medyada duysak da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde Senat\u00f6r Ted Cruz\u2019un Trump\u2019u ge\u00e7ebilme ihtimali halen mevcut.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u015eayet ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 olabilirse Hillary Clinton\u2019un kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun, kendisinden \u00f6nceki 8 y\u0131ll\u0131k Obama d\u00f6neminin y\u00fck\u00fc olacak. Zira Obama 2008\u2019deki ekonomik krizin faturas\u0131n\u0131n ABD halk\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan Cumhuriyet\u00e7i y\u00f6netime kesilmesi sayesinde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmu\u015f ama ekonomik alandaki vaatlerinin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc 8 y\u0131la ra\u011fmen halen ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirememi\u015f bir ba\u015fkan. Dahas\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler, Obama d\u00f6neminde ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenlik tehdidinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu durumun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda Obama\u2019n\u0131n oldu\u011fu kadar onun ilk d\u00f6neminde d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131 olan Hillary Clinton\u2019un da hatalar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu savunuyorlar.<\/span><\/p>\n

AB cephesinde 2016 boyunca m\u00fclteciler en \u00f6nemli konu olmaya devam edecek. Bir\u00e7ok AB uzman\u0131n\u0131n “Birlik\u2019in bug\u00fcne kadar ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck kriz” olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi m\u00fclteci ak\u0131n\u0131 2015\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda AB i\u00e7inde derin bir \u00e7atlak meydana getirmi\u015fti. Suriye ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Orta Do\u011fu, Afrika ve Asya\u2019dan Avrupa\u2019ya akan bir milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n insan\u0131n AB s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l yerle\u015ftirilece\u011fi ve yeni m\u00fclteci dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l engellenece\u011fi Br\u00fcksel\u2019de hararetli tart\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>\n

2015\u2019in sonunda BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde al\u0131nan karar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Suriye\u2019de bir ate\u015fkes umudu do\u011fmu\u015f olsa da, taraflar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne konulan yol haritas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanabilir olabilmesi i\u00e7in evvela \u2018taraflar\u0131n\u2019 kim olduklar\u0131n\u0131n netle\u015fmesi gerekiyor. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyelerinden \u2018Esadl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme\u2019 net \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan bir devlet kalmam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Ama ate\u015fkes masas\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131nda kimlerin oturaca\u011f\u0131, Suriye muhalefetini kimlerin temsil etti\u011fi, PYD\u2019nin konumunun ne olaca\u011f\u0131 ve en \u00f6nemlisi I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e y\u00f6nelik nas\u0131l bir m\u00fccadele stratejisi y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclece\u011fi gibi sorular\u0131n ancak 2016\u2019n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda cevaplanabilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacak. Pamuk ipli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir ate\u015fkesten, Suriye halk\u0131 i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n nas\u0131l muhafaza edilece\u011fi gibi hassas sorular\u0131n da 2016\u2019da cevaplanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusya 2016\u2019da da enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ekonomisinde yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaralar\u0131 sarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesi \u00fclke i\u00e7inde bast\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f muhalefetin sesini y\u00fckseltmesine ve \u2018Federasyon\u2019da gerilimler ya\u015fanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. \u0130\u00e7eriyi kontrol edebilmek i\u00e7in Vladimir Putin\u2019in Rusya halk\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zlerini \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7evirecek yeni hamleler yapmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu ba\u011flamda Rusya Suriye krizine daha \u00e7ok m\u00fcdahil olabilir. Bu ise uzun vadede Moskova i\u00e7in s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir politika olmaktan \u00e7ok uzak. Putin\u2019in nihai hedefi Do\u011fu Akdeniz enerji rezervlerinin piyasalara aktar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmak olsa bile, b\u00f6lgedeki Rus asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n NATO\u2019da meydana getirdi\u011fi kayg\u0131, gerilimin daha da artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Gerilim artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da Putin\u2019in \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki muhalif sesleri susturmak i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok bask\u0131 arac\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale gelir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Filistin-\u0130srail anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2016\u2019da devasa ad\u0131mlar at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair herhangi bir emare mevcut de\u011fil. ABD\u2019deki se\u00e7imin galibi belli olana ve yeni ba\u015fkan Orta Do\u011fu politikas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayana de\u011fin, taraflar\u0131 yeniden bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131na ciddi hedeflerle oturtabilecek bir unsur mevcut de\u011fil. Obama\u2019n\u0131n 7 y\u0131lda ba\u015faramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, son g\u00f6rev y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan liderli\u011findeki K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleriyle \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadelenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l da b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Suriye meselesinde nispi bir iyile\u015fme olsa bile, Suudi Arabistan-\u0130ran z\u0131tla\u015fmas\u0131 b\u00f6lgede Irak\u2019tan Yemen\u2019e uzanan geni\u015f bir hat \u00fczerinde ani geli\u015febilecek kriz potansiyeline sahip.<\/span><\/p>\n

Y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00c7in ise d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hassas b\u00f6lgelerine \u2018temkinli giri\u015f\u2019 politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Bilhassa Asya-Pasifik ve Afrika\u2019da artan \u00c7in mevcudiyeti ABD ve baz\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkeleriyle s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerin artabilece\u011fi sinyalini veriyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n k\u00fcresel siyasette z\u0131tla\u015fmalar\u0131n ve rekabetin yo\u011fun olarak ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. \u015eayet tarihsel \u00f6rnekler bir kez daha do\u011frulan\u0131rsa, son be\u015f as\u0131rd\u0131r her \u2018s\u0131klet merkezi de\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019 \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fekilde, \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 olabilir bunlar. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n her zamankinden \u00e7ok d\u00fczene ve etkin i\u015fleyen bir kriz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm mekanizmas\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Her y\u0131l oldu\u011fu gibi, 2015\u2019in son yaz\u0131s\u0131nda da genel bir k\u00fcresel siyaset de\u011ferlendirmesi yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Gelecek hafta da 2016\u2019da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin muhtemel d\u0131\u015f politika \u00f6nceliklerine g\u00f6z ataca\u011f\u0131m… 2016\u2019da d\u00fcnyada en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulacak geli\u015fme kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de yap\u0131lacak ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi olacak. Bug\u00fcnlerde Cumhuriyet\u00e7i ve Demokrat Parti’nin ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131 eyalet eyalet dola\u015farak, delegelerin deste\u011fini toplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. Muhtemelen haziran ortas\u0131nda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}