{"id":1716,"date":"2015-10-11T15:20:05","date_gmt":"2015-10-11T12:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1716"},"modified":"2024-03-07T17:20:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T14:20:17","slug":"suriyede-tehdidi-firsata-cevirme-konusunda-dort-oneri-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1716","title":{"rendered":"Suriye’de tehdidi f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirme konusunda d\u00f6rt \u00f6neri (11.10.2015) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Son 10 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ya\u015fananlarla Suriye konusunda t\u00fcm hesaplar ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Rusya’n\u0131n evvela hava bombard\u0131man\u0131 ard\u0131ndan da Hazar Denizi’ndeki sava\u015f gemilerinden f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc f\u00fczelerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar Suriye’deki krize taraf olan akt\u00f6rlerin oyun planlar\u0131nda g\u00fcncelleme ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011furdu. Dahas\u0131 3 ve 4 Ekim tarihlerinde Rus sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ihlali, Suriye hava savunma sistemlerinin T\u00fcrk sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131na kilitlenmesi, Amerikan ve Rus sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n “uzaktan it dala\u015f\u0131”, NATO’nun Rusya’ya kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmeler Moskova’n\u0131n bilin\u00e7li bir t\u0131rmand\u0131rma siyaseti izledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye satranc\u0131na b\u00f6ylesine pervas\u0131z ve destursuz dahil olmas\u0131yla, manzaraya tam anlam\u0131yla format at\u0131ld\u0131. ABD’nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc “e\u011fit-donat program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu” a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 san\u0131r\u0131m hi\u00e7birimizin g\u00f6z\u00fcnden ka\u00e7mad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rus bombard\u0131man\u0131 ve Esad g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sebebiyle yeni ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye’nin kap\u0131s\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Halen 2 milyona ula\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye’deki Suriyelilerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Tabiat\u0131yla bu durum Avrupa \u00fclkelerine Suriyeli g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc de h\u0131zland\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zaten bir kriz vard\u0131. 10 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr olup bitenlerle daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. T\u00fcrkiye iyice i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz h\u00e2le gelen ve olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artarak hissetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu krizi pek\u00e2l\u00e2 f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirebilir. Bunun i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt \u00f6nerim var:<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye siyasetini de\u011fi\u015fen \u015fartlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak g\u00fcncelledi\u011fini s\u00fcratle ilan etmesidir. Suriye krizi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktadan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir yerdedir. 10 g\u00fcn \u00f6ncesinden bile \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fik bir tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. \u015eartlar\u0131n k\u00f6kten ve esasl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fmesi (Latince Rebus sic stantibus) uluslararas\u0131 hukukta bile evvelce verilmi\u015f olan taahh\u00fctlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fru k\u0131lar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bug\u00fcne kadar takip etti\u011fi Suriye siyasetini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi ve g\u00fcncellemesi i\u00e7in gerek ulusal gerek uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeterli me\u015fru sebepler ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu bir ricat veya “U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc” de\u011fil, aksine orta vadede ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lacak elzem bir hamledir…<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi<\/strong>, yo\u011fun bir kamu diplomasisi ata\u011f\u0131na ba\u015flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bilhassa AB \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgas\u0131 ve Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye denklemine kat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmeler bug\u00fcne kadar oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 ve sonu\u00e7 al\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerle T\u00fcrkiye’nin imaj\u0131n\u0131n olumlu y\u00f6nde de\u011fi\u015fmesi i\u00e7in etkili bir kamu diplomasisi i\u00e7in kap\u0131y\u0131 aralam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imin d\u0131\u015far\u0131da siyasi manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nday\u0131m. Ama \u00f6nemli ba\u015fkentlere \u00fcst d\u00fczey ziyaretlerin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, en az\u0131ndan b\u00fcrokratik d\u00fczeyde stratejik noktalara yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong> ve kanaatimce en m\u00fchimi, Bat\u0131 ve Rusya aras\u0131nda diyalog k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc olmakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye Bat\u0131 ittifak\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Ama hem Rusya’ya kom\u015fu ve bu \u00fclkeyle \u00e7ok geni\u015f bir yelpazeye yay\u0131lan siyasi ve ekonomik ili\u015fkileri olan hem de Suriye krizine kom\u015fu yegane NATO \u00fclkesidir. Mevcut krizi bir f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirmek suretiyle T\u00fcrkiye, Suriye’deki rol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden tan\u0131mlayabilir. Bu bizim bilhassa 2002-2010 d\u00f6neminde \u00e7ok a\u015fina oldu\u011fumuz, \u00fcstelik ba\u015far\u0131yla uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir politikad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, sorunun de\u011fil \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olabilmek i\u00e7in Washington-Br\u00fcksel-Moskova hatt\u0131nda “kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131” bir i\u015flev g\u00f6rebilir. Bu yeni rol neticesinde, ABD-Rusya geriliminin azalmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir mi bilemem ama b\u00f6yle bir pozisyon de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi sayesinde hi\u00e7 olmazsa gelecekte mutlaka kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kacak olan Suriye’nin yeniden dizayn\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde elini rahatlatm\u0131\u015f olur. Bu hamle Tahran-Ba\u011fdat-Moskova-\u015eam blokunu \u00e7at\u0131rdat\u0131r. \u00dcstelik, Suriye sebebiyle Rusya ile daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gerilim ya\u015fama riski de ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f olur…<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong>, g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in yeniden giri\u015fimde bulunulmas\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye sadece Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler nezdinde de\u011fil, Rusya ile temaslar\u0131nda da Suriye’nin kuzeyinde bir g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi tezini dile getirmeli ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen insani krizin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in konunun BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’ne ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eayet Moskova bu konuda ikna edilebilirse hi\u00e7 olmazsa s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi yeni g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilebilir. G\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin g\u00fcvenli\u011finin sa\u011flanabilmesinin bug\u00fcn itibariyle ancak Rusya ve ABD’nin mutabakat\u0131yla temin edilebilece\u011fi g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7mamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Daha \u00f6nceki bir yaz\u0131mda Mecelle’nin me\u015fhur prensibine g\u00f6nderme yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m: Def-i mefasid, celb-i menafiden evlad\u0131r.<\/strong> Suriye’de akan kan\u0131n derh\u00e2l durdurulmas\u0131, kimin kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, kimin hangi b\u00f6lgelerde hangi “devlet\u00e7ikleri” kuraca\u011f\u0131ndan, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn Esadl\u0131 m\u0131 Esads\u0131z m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlidir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yine Mecelle’den bir prensiple bitireyim:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ki fesat tearuz etti\u011finde ehaff\u0131 irtikab ile a’zam\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7aresine bak\u0131l\u0131r. <\/strong>Anlam\u0131n\u0131 aray\u0131p bulmay\u0131 sizlere b\u0131rak\u0131yorum…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Son 10 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr ya\u015fananlarla Suriye konusunda t\u00fcm hesaplar ba\u015ftan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Rusya’n\u0131n evvela hava bombard\u0131man\u0131 ard\u0131ndan da Hazar Denizi’ndeki sava\u015f gemilerinden f\u0131rlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc f\u00fczelerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar Suriye’deki krize taraf olan akt\u00f6rlerin oyun planlar\u0131nda g\u00fcncelleme ihtiyac\u0131 do\u011furdu. Dahas\u0131 3 ve 4 Ekim tarihlerinde Rus sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 ihlali, Suriye hava savunma sistemlerinin T\u00fcrk sava\u015f […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1716"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1716\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}