{"id":1635,"date":"2015-04-05T14:50:09","date_gmt":"2015-04-05T11:50:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1635"},"modified":"2024-03-07T21:15:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T18:15:15","slug":"nukleer-mutabakat-sonrasi-senaryolar-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1635","title":{"rendered":"N\u00dcKLEER MUTABAKAT SONRASI SENARYOLAR (05.04.2015) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin be\u015f daimi \u00fcyesi (P-5), Almanya ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcredir y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen n\u00fckleer enerji g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde nihayet bir mutabakata var\u0131ld\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barack Obama’n\u0131n “tarih\u00ee” olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi mutabakata g\u00f6re \u0130ran ile muhataplar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en ge\u00e7 30 Haziran’a kadar nihai anla\u015fma imzalanacak.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6z\u00fc itibariyle \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etme ihtimalini tamamen ortadan kald\u0131ran ve teknik boyutlar\u0131 \u00e7ok ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olan bu mutabakat\u0131n \u015f\u00fcphesiz \u00f6nemli siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, her ne kadar \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti anla\u015fman\u0131n Bat\u0131’ya kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir zafer oldu\u011fu propagandas\u0131n\u0131 yapsa da, ortada “zafer” ya da “hezimet” olarak de\u011ferlendirilecek bir durum yok; uluslararas\u0131 bir uzla\u015fma var. Ama \u015eah d\u00f6neminden beri n\u00fckleer konu \u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetinde \u00f6ylesine istismar edildi ki, bug\u00fcn \u0130ran’\u0131 y\u00f6netenlerin devrime h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcrekten inanan kitlelere ve genel olarak \u0130ran halk\u0131na, neden n\u00fckleer silah yapmaktan vazge\u00e7tiklerini anlatmalar\u0131 san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar kolay de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc “n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7” olmak son 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u0130ran’\u0131n en \u00f6nemli hedeflerinden biriydi. \u0130srail’in n\u00fckleer silahlara sahip olmaya devam etti\u011fi bir ortamda, ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131n\u0131n meydana getirece\u011fi rahatlama geni\u015f bir kitleyi ikna etmeye yetmeyebilir. Bu ise \u0130ran i\u00e7inde ciddi bir y\u00f6netim bunal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan, \u0130ran’\u0131n Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131yla \u00f6nce ekonomik, ard\u0131ndan da siyasi ili\u015fkilerinin geli\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u00fclke i\u00e7inde reform yanl\u0131s\u0131 muhalefeti cesaretlendirebilir. D\u0131\u015fa daha a\u00e7\u0131k \u0130ran, ister istemez \u00fclke i\u00e7inde siyasi reformlar yapmaya y\u00f6nelebilir. Bu durum da, \u00fclkede yine bir rejim bunal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Kald\u0131 ki, n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 destekleyen din\u00ee lider Ali Hamaney sonras\u0131nda bu makama kimin gelece\u011fi konusunda yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 y\u0131ld\u0131r \u00fclke i\u00e7inde giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir \u00e7eki\u015fme s\u00f6z konusuyken, n\u00fckleer konunun i\u00e7eride istismar konusu olmaya devam etmemesi s\u00fcrpriz say\u0131l\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer enerji ihtiraslar\u0131 dizginlenmi\u015f ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla n\u00fckleer silah yapma ihtimali tamamen ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f \u0130ran’\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’da bundan b\u00f6yle nas\u0131l bir siyaset takip edece\u011fi ise ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu. Size de garip gelmiyor mu? \u0130ran bir yandan ABD’nin lojistik destek verdi\u011fi Yemen operasyonunda Suudilerin hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Husileri perde gerisinden desteklemeye devam ederken, di\u011fer taraftan da ABD ile n\u00fckleer konularda anla\u015fmaya var\u0131yor. Bu iki konunun birbirinden \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnemeyiz. Son tahlilde iki konu da \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olmas\u0131yla do\u011frudan ilgili.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu durumda \u0130ran’\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’daki pozisyonuna ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 senaryo \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor:<\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131mda da dikkatleri \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m Suudi Arabistan ve m\u00fcttefikleriyle \u0130ran aras\u0131nda mezhep temelli bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma senaryosu. Kanaatimce, n\u00fckleer mutabakat bu ihtimali azaltmad\u0131, aksine art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci senaryo, \u0130ran’\u0131n Suriye ve Irak’ta etkinli\u011fine ABD ve AB taraf\u0131ndan muvafakat edilmesi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130ran’\u0131n Yemen ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerindeki \u015eiileri destekleme ve k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtma politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesi. B\u00f6lgede s\u00fcratli bir yumu\u015fama d\u00f6nemine girilmesi. Bu iyimser bir senaryo.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc senaryo ise t\u0131pk\u0131 Nixon d\u00f6nemindeki gibi, ABD’nin ayn\u0131 anda hem Suudi Arabistan hem de \u0130ran’la yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler kurarak, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesini bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00fczerinden denetlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131. Ama ne g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, o ili\u015fkiyi mevcut k\u0131lan dinamikler mevcut, ne de \u0130srail’in b\u00f6yle bir senaryoyu kabullenmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Akl\u0131n yolu bir: Orta Do\u011fu’da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesisi ger\u00e7ekten isteniyorsa, bunun i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgedeki t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 bir Orta Do\u011fu Bar\u0131\u015f S\u00fcreci ba\u015flat\u0131lmal\u0131. Avrupa G\u00fcvenlik ve \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Te\u015fkilat\u0131’na benzer bir \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu’da kurulmas\u0131 ihtimali bug\u00fcn i\u00e7in \u00e7ok uzak. Bunun i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6n \u015fart\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gerekli:<\/span><\/p>\n

1-Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ve egemen Filistin devletinin kurulmas\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

2-B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin t\u00fcm\u00fcndeki kitle imha silah\u0131 kapasitelerinin yok edilmesi.<\/span><\/p>\n

3-B\u00f6lge halklar\u0131n\u0131n demokratik ve insani haklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Belki g\u00fc\u00e7 ama imk\u00e2ns\u0131z de\u011fil…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin be\u015f daimi \u00fcyesi (P-5), Almanya ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcredir y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen n\u00fckleer enerji g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde nihayet bir mutabakata var\u0131ld\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Barack Obama’n\u0131n “tarih\u00ee” olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi mutabakata g\u00f6re \u0130ran ile muhataplar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en ge\u00e7 30 Haziran’a kadar nihai anla\u015fma imzalanacak. \u00d6z\u00fc itibariyle \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etme ihtimalini tamamen ortadan kald\u0131ran ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1635"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1635\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}