T\u00fcrkiye gazetesi yazar\u0131 \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapma stratejisini de\u011ferlendirdi. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 beklenen tepkisinin hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131ndaki iddialara dikkat \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen etkiyi olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erhan, bu kez daha etkili bir misilleme haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n liderleri aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 stratejik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi yaz\u0131s\u0131nda \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye gazetesi yazar\u0131 \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapma stratejisini de\u011ferlendirdi. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 beklenen tepkisinin hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131ndaki iddialara dikkat \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen etkiyi olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erhan, bu kez daha etkili bir misilleme haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n liderleri aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 stratejik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi yaz\u0131s\u0131nda \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti: “Hizbullah ve HAMAS liderlerine \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen suikastlardan sonra “intikam” yemini eden \u0130ran bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 cuma ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar hen\u00fcz bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermemi\u015fti. T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada Tahran’\u0131n Heniyye suikast\u0131n\u0131n hemen ard\u0131ndan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi beklentisi olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Hatta ABD Ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 Trump sald\u0131r\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcn ve saat dahi vermi\u015fti. Trump daha sonra \u0130ran’\u0131n operasyonu “erteledi\u011fini” ifade etmi\u015fti. Peki ne oluyor da t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kilitlendi\u011fi s\u00f6z konusu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc gelmiyor. Bat\u0131 bas\u0131n\u0131nda ge\u00e7en hafta yer alan iki haber konuyu takip edenlerin dikkatinden ka\u00e7mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Birincisi, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir misillemede bulunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frenen ABD’nin devreye girdi\u011fi ve \u0130ran’la gizli bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi haberiydi. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda da ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’ya yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi konusunda Umman’da gizli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberleri bas\u0131nda yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu kez ABD’nin, \u0130srail’e ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki ABD hedeflerine sald\u0131rmamas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran’la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini tekrar ba\u015flatmay\u0131 \u00f6nerdi\u011fi iddia edildi. \u0130kinci haber ise Heniyye suikast\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fiyle ilgiliydi. \u0130ddiaya g\u00f6re \u0130srail d\u0131\u015f istihbarat servisi MOSSAD baz\u0131 \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 mensuplar\u0131yla irtibata ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve onlar\u0131 para kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Heniyye’nin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konukevine bomba yerle\u015ftirmeye ikna etmi\u015fti. Sald\u0131r\u0131dan hemen sonra bu ki\u015filer \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6NE \u00c7IKAN V\u0130DEO \u0130ki iddia da do\u011frulanmad\u0131. Tamamen uydurma olma ihtimalleri var. Yine de \u0130ran’\u0131n daha \u00f6nceki tepkileriyle mukayese edildi\u011finde epey ihtiyatl\u0131 davranmakta olu\u015funun baz\u0131 sebepleri \u00fczerinde durmak laz\u0131m. \u0130ran, do\u011frudan \u0130srail’i hedef alan bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bekledi\u011fi etkiyi do\u011furmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130srail’e yollad\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u0130HA’lar\u0131n ve f\u00fczelerin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn hedeflerine ula\u015famadan imha edilmesi, b\u00f6lgede kendisine bel ba\u011flayanlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenini sarst\u0131. Dahas\u0131, \u0130srail’in yard\u0131m\u0131na ko\u015fan ABD ve \u0130ngiltere, benzeri bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 ayn\u0131 duvar\u0131 \u00f6receklerinin sinyalini verdi. Bu itibarla Tahran y\u00f6netimi, hi\u00e7bir sonu\u00e7 do\u011furmayacak ama kendisini ABD ile de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilecek bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 tekrar etmekten vazge\u00e7mi\u015f olabilir. Bunu yaparken de “misliyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k” ilkesi gere\u011fince, sald\u0131r\u0131 yerine, \u0130srail’in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrden bir misilleme yapma se\u00e7ene\u011fini de de\u011ferlendiriyor olabilir. Bunun tersi de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar etkisiz ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnden kendi itibar\u0131n\u0131 sars\u0131c\u0131 bir nitelikte oldu\u011funu g\u00f6ren \u0130ran, bu kez \u0130srail’in ger\u00e7ekten can\u0131n\u0131 ac\u0131tacak bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verebilmek i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor olabilir. Detayl\u0131 planlar ve hesaplamalar sebebiyle de misillemede gecikmi\u015f olabilir. B\u00f6lgedeki vekil g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve tabii m\u00fcttefikleri olan Hizbullah ve Husiler’in de kendisiyle e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak \u0130srail’e sald\u0131r\u0131ya ge\u00e7mesini organize etmekle de me\u015fgul olabilir. Di\u011fer yandan, \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan’\u0131n, din\u00ee lider Ali Hamaney’in misilleme konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ABD ve di\u011fer Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleriyle yeni bir diyalog kap\u0131s\u0131 aralamak ve bu yolla \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki ambargoyu gev\u015fetme niyetiyle hareket etti\u011fi de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. B\u00f6yle bir durum s\u00f6z konusuysa, reformist kanada mensup oldu\u011fu bilinen Peze\u015fkiyan ile din\u00ee lider aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre sonra \u0130ran’da \u00e7ok ciddi siyasi bir krizi do\u011furabilece\u011fini tahmin etmek g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaz. \u015eayet \u0130ran, \u0130srail’e \u00e7ok sert ve topyek\u00fbn bir misillemede bulunursa, bunun Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Peze\u015fkiyan’a ra\u011fmen olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Daha mutedil bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilmesi ya da hareketsiz kal\u0131nmas\u0131 durumunda ise \u0130ran’\u0131n en \u00f6nemli iki siyasi akt\u00f6r\u00fc aras\u0131nda bir mutabakata var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumu yap\u0131labilir. Tam da bu noktada, Heniyye’ye suikast d\u00fczenleyenlerin \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan sat\u0131n al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu iddialar\u0131n\u0131n neden ortaya at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam kazan\u0131yor. Zira Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131’na de\u011fil, do\u011frudan din\u00ee lidere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yap\u0131yor ve onun talimat\u0131yla hareket ediyorlar. \u0130ran’\u0131 tetkik edenler bilir. \u00dclkede asl\u0131nda biri cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131na di\u011feri din\u00ee liderin komutas\u0131 alt\u0131nda iki ayr\u0131 ordu bulunur. Yap\u0131lar\u0131na ve kuvvetlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran’\u0131n as\u0131l asker\u00ee g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn Hamaney’in direktifleriyle hareket etti\u011fi, cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ise bunlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde herhangi bir yetkisinin bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. \u0130ddialar\u0131 do\u011frulayan somut hi\u00e7bir delilin olmamas\u0131, Hamaney’in komutas\u0131ndaki Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde \u0130srail’e \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ki\u015filerin bulundu\u011fu \u015f\u00fcphesinin \u0130ran kamuoyunda \u00e7ok ciddi bir polemik konusu olmas\u0131na m\u00e2ni de\u011fil. Pazar sabah\u0131 siz bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 okurken belki de \u0130ran’\u0131n “ertelenen” misillemesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olacak. Bu sefer sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkili oldu\u011fu ve \u0130srail’in buna ne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanacak. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki, \u0130srail-\u0130ran geriliminin t\u00fcm Orta Do\u011fu’ya yay\u0131larak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7alkant\u0131ya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 riski her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn art\u0131yor. Netanyahu’nun ABD’yle \u0130ran’\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirme plan\u0131 ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck Orta Do\u011fu Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n patlak verip vermeyece\u011fi sorusu \u0130ran’\u0131n uzun bir gelenek \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselen “devlet akl\u0131n\u0131” ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kullanaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re cevaplanacak.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye gazetesi yazar\u0131 \u00c7a\u011fr\u0131 Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 misilleme yapma stratejisini de\u011ferlendirdi. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 beklenen tepkisinin hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fini ve Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131ndaki iddialara dikkat \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n beklenen etkiyi olu\u015fturmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erhan, bu kez daha etkili bir misilleme haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Erhan, \u0130ran’\u0131n liderleri aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 stratejik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":16346,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16345\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}