{"id":1560,"date":"2014-10-05T14:22:28","date_gmt":"2014-10-05T11:22:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1560"},"modified":"2024-03-08T18:09:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-08T15:09:28","slug":"1560","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1560","title":{"rendered":"Bu i\u015fin sonu yeni harita m\u0131? T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

I\u015e\u0130D: \u015eii-Egemen Irak ile Nusayri-egemen Baas Suriyesi aras\u0131na konumlanacak S\u00fcnni Arap-egemen yeni bir olu\u015fum pe\u015finde. Bu hedefinden de kolay kolay vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu sat\u0131rlar kaleme al\u0131n\u0131rken, I\u015e\u0130D yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde yer alan silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler Ayn’el Arab’\u0131n merkezine do\u011fru ilerlemekteydi. Kentte ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc en g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri T\u00fcrkiye’ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Ayn-el Arab’\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n hem say\u0131lar\u0131 ve silahlar\u0131 hem de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tecr\u00fcbeleri muar\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok gerisinde oldu\u011fundan bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 kazanma ihtimalleri \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc. Havadan c\u0131l\u0131z bombalamalarla I\u015e\u0130D’in ilerleyi\u015fini \u015fimdilik durduramayan ABD ve \u0130ngiltere’nin Ayn-el Arab’\u0131n “d\u00fc\u015fmesi” kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yapabilecekleri pek bir \u015fey yoktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Eminim meseleye derinlemesine v\u00e2k\u0131f olanlar\u0131n\u0131z d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011funuz yukar\u0131daki paragraf\u0131 okuduktan sonra “Ayn-el Arab da neresi?” diye sormaktas\u0131n\u0131z. Hani son birka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r g\u00fcndemimizin ilk s\u0131ras\u0131na oturan Kobane’den ba\u015fka bir yer de\u011fil Ayn-el Arab. I\u015e\u0130D y\u00f6netici kadrosunun stratejik bir akla sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 bize d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcrcesine, \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn \u0131srarla ele ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ayn-el Arab neden birdenbire Kobane oluverdi?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ya da Rojava nereden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131? 2 y\u0131l evveline kadar “Rojava’y\u0131 haritada g\u00f6sterebilir misiniz?” sorusuna san\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7o\u011fu stratejist dahi olumlu cevap veremezdi. Zaten Rojava bir yerle\u015fim biriminin ad\u0131 olmaktan ziyade, Suriye’de K\u00fcrtlerin n\u00fcfusun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturduklar\u0131 alan\u0131 tan\u0131mlamak maksad\u0131yla ke\u015ffedilmi\u015f bir kavram.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu’nun zafiyet g\u00f6stermesinden istifade ederek Kuzey Suriye’de tam denetimi ele ge\u00e7iren PYD, kendi flamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fa sola \u00e7ekmekle kalmam\u0131\u015f, K\u00fcrtlerin yo\u011fun olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerle\u015fim birimlerinin isimlerini de de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Temmuz 2012’de HPG taraf\u0131ndan ele ge\u00e7irilen Ayn-el Arab’a da Kobane denmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ayn\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m do\u011frultusunda, PYD \/ HPG’nin y\u00f6netimine giren b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in Rojava ibaresi s\u0131kl\u0131kla kullan\u0131l\u0131r oldu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda Rojavaye K\u00fcrdistane’nin k\u0131saca s\u00f6yleni\u015fi b\u00f6yle. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi “Bat\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan”. T\u00fcrk\u00e7e bas\u0131n yay\u0131n organlar\u0131nda neden T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi s\u00f6ylenmez de, sanki Ba\u011fdat, Kahire, \u0130stanbul gibi bir yer ismiymi\u015f gibi Rojava denir? “Bat\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan” dememek i\u00e7in herhalde.<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u015e\u0130D’in “stratejik akla sahip bir \u00f6rg\u00fct” oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi tam da bu noktada zihnimizi kurcal\u0131yor. Zira, sistemli bir \u015fekilde Kuzey Suriye’yi “K\u00fcrts\u00fczle\u015ftirmeyi”, Bat\u0131 Irak’\u0131 ise “\u015eiisizle\u015ftirmeyi” hedefleyen \u00f6rg\u00fct, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu S\u00fcnni Araplardan olu\u015fan, “etnik temizlik” sonucu say\u0131lar\u0131 azalt\u0131lacak K\u00fcrtlerin, T\u00fcrkmenlerin ve \u015eii Araplar\u0131n ise kendi mutlak hakimiyetlerine biat ettikleri yeni bir devlet kurman\u0131n pe\u015finde. Kendilerince bir hilafeti ilan ettiler bile. I\u015e\u0130D durdurulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve stratejisine uygun olarak ilerlemeye devam etti\u011fi takdirde, k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra ne Kobane kal\u0131r ne de Rojava. Pek tabii, I\u015e\u0130D’in h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu alanda pek K\u00fcrt de kalmaz. Peki g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n \u00f6tesindeki harita bug\u00fcnk\u00fc gibi kal\u0131r m\u0131?<\/span><\/p>\n

I\u015e\u0130D kuzeye do\u011fru s\u00fcratle ilerlemeye ba\u015flamadan evvel “Sykes-Picot s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmekte oldu\u011funu” ve “100 y\u0131l evvel d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7izilen bu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n mutlaka yeniden \u00e7izilmesi gerekti\u011fi”ni s\u00f6ylemek b\u00f6lgeyle ilgilenen uzmanlar\u0131n neredeyse standartla\u015fm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi bu uzmanlar\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131, Rojava’n\u0131n kaderi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sanki bu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini pek de istemiyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Halbuki, I\u015e\u0130D tam da bunu yap\u0131yor: \u015eii-egemen Irak ile Nusayri-egemen Baas Suriyesi aras\u0131na konumlanacak S\u00fcnni Arap-egemen yeni bir olu\u015fum pe\u015finde. Bu hedefinden de kolay kolay vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 olmad\u0131k\u00e7a ya da iyi te\u00e7hiz edilmi\u015f ve iyi e\u011fitilmi\u015f yerel silahl\u0131 birimler \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fclmedik\u00e7e,  I\u015e\u0130D’in k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede durdurulabilmesi uzak bir ihtimal. Aksine, ABD bombalamalar\u0131nda sivil kay\u0131plar artt\u0131k\u00e7a, t\u0131pk\u0131 Afganistan’da Taliban’a kat\u0131l\u0131mlar gibi, S\u00fcnni Arap a\u015firetlerinin I\u015e\u0130D \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda yer almalar\u0131 dahi s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. O zaman da I\u015e\u0130D \u00f6nce fiilen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir otorite alan\u0131 kurar ard\u0131ndan da Sykes-Picot s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten de\u011fi\u015ftirir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcn I\u015e\u0130D kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 koalisyon i\u00e7inde yer alan K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin, Suriye ve Irak’tan toprak alarak bir S\u00fcnni-Arap devletinin kurulmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgede \u0130ran’\u0131n olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015eii n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131n\u0131n darmada\u011f\u0131n olmas\u0131 ihtimali artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda nas\u0131l hareket edeceklerini merak ediyorum.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fcbarek Kurban Bayram\u0131’n\u0131 huzur i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7irmenizi diliyorum.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I\u015e\u0130D: \u015eii-Egemen Irak ile Nusayri-egemen Baas Suriyesi aras\u0131na konumlanacak S\u00fcnni Arap-egemen yeni bir olu\u015fum pe\u015finde. Bu hedefinden de kolay kolay vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu sat\u0131rlar kaleme al\u0131n\u0131rken, I\u015e\u0130D yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 i\u00e7inde yer alan silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler Ayn’el Arab’\u0131n merkezine do\u011fru ilerlemekteydi. Kentte ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc en g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri T\u00fcrkiye’ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Ayn-el Arab’\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14296,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haberler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1560","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1560"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1560\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/14296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1560"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1560"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1560"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}