{"id":1554,"date":"2013-08-27T14:13:26","date_gmt":"2013-08-27T11:13:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1554"},"modified":"2024-03-07T22:11:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T19:11:28","slug":"suriyeye-mudahale-nasil-olabilir-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1554","title":{"rendered":"Suriye’ye m\u00fcdahale nas\u0131l olabilir? (27.08.2013) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Birinci ve en zay\u0131f ihtimal;<\/strong> Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin alaca\u011f\u0131 bir kararla m\u00fcdahalenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi. Orta Do\u011fu’da bu t\u00fcrden bir m\u00fcdahale en son 1990’da Kuveyt’i i\u015fgal eden Irak’a kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015fti. BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi, o zamanki Sovyetler Birli\u011fi’nin “evet” oyu verdi\u011fi, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin ise “\u00e7ekimser” kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir oylama sonras\u0131nda Saddam H\u00fcseyin y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na karar vermi\u015fti. ABD \u00f6nderli\u011finde olu\u015fturulan koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7leri k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde Saddam H\u00fcseyin’in kay\u0131ts\u0131z \u015farts\u0131z teslim olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve Kuveyt’ten \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 temin etmi\u015flerdi. Suriye hakk\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, Rusya’n\u0131n G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’ndeki engelleyici tavr\u0131 devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Putin y\u00f6netiminin bu tutumundan vazge\u00e7ece\u011fine ili\u015fkin herhangi bir emare de ortada yok.Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler g\u00f6revlileri \u015eam’da bulunurken ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen kimyasal sald\u0131r\u0131yla 1000’den fazla insan\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra Baas rejimine asker\u00ee bir m\u00fcdahalede bulunulmas\u0131 ihtimali uluslararas\u0131 alanda yeniden tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Kimyasal katliam \u00f6ncesinde, ne zaman ve kimlerin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bile bilinmeyen “Cenevre g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin” ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in Esad y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011finin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edildi\u011fi Bat\u0131 ba\u015fkentlerinde m\u00fcdahale haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor. E\u011fer ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, Suriye’ye d\u00f6rt t\u00fcr asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6z konusu olabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci ve yine \u00e7ok zay\u0131f bir ihtimal;<\/strong> b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin tek ba\u015flar\u0131na ya da i\u015fbirli\u011fi halinde harekete ge\u00e7meleri. T\u00fcrkiye, Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lerini birle\u015ftirerek, bug\u00fcne kadar \u00f6rne\u011fi olmayan bi\u00e7imde Suriye’ye m\u00fcdahalede bulunmalar\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckm\u00fcyor. M\u0131s\u0131r’da ya\u015fananlar sebebiyle Ankara-Riyad ili\u015fkilerinde ya\u015fanan gerginli\u011fin \u00f6tesinde, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin Rusya’n\u0131n tepkisini g\u00f6ze alarak ad\u0131m atmalar\u0131 da ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131. Son olarak, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin asker\u00ee kapasitesi de b\u00f6yle bir harek\u00e2ta elveri\u015fli de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ihtimal; <\/strong>son g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131ndan da yo\u011fun \u015fekilde dile getirilen, 1999’da Kosova’ya yap\u0131lana benzer bir m\u00fcdahalenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi. S\u0131rbistan’da (Yugoslavya) Milosevi\u00e7 y\u00f6netiminin Kosova’daki Arnavutlar\u0131 hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi harekete ge\u00e7irilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ama Rusya engelledi\u011fi i\u00e7in buradan karar \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131nca, NATO S\u0131rbistan’a sald\u0131rma karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. NATO’nun hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 neticesinde Milosevi\u00e7 geri ad\u0131m atm\u0131\u015f ve Kosova’dan \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti. E\u011fer Suriye konusunda BM’den bir karar \u00e7\u0131kmazsa, NATO’nun benzeri bir harek\u00e2t\u0131 Suriye’ye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f stratejik hedeflere yap\u0131lacak hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na paralel olarak \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu’nun ilerleyi\u015fe ge\u00e7mesinin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Ama bu ad\u0131m\u0131n at\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in evvela NATO \u00fcyelerinin oybirli\u011fi ile karar almas\u0131 gerekiyor. BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nde be\u015f \u00fcyenin, NATO’nun karar organ\u0131 Kuzey Atlantik Konseyi’nde ise t\u00fcm \u00fcyelerin veto hakk\u0131 var. Nitekim 2003’te Fransa, Almanya ve Bel\u00e7ika’n\u0131n engellemesi sebebiyle George W. Bush y\u00f6netimi NATO’dan istedi\u011fi karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karamam\u0131\u015f ve Irak sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 “\u0130stekliler Koalisyonu” yoluyla yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ihtimal ise; <\/strong>BM ve NATO karar\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ABD’nin m\u00fcttefikleriyle birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilece\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r. Esad’a ba\u011fl\u0131 birliklerin havadan ve denizden bombalanmas\u0131 \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek bu sald\u0131r\u0131da, ABD kara birliklerini kullanmayacakt\u0131r. Zira Irak’tan \u00e7ekilen, Afganistan’dan ise \u00e7ekilme s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatan Obama’n\u0131n, Suriye’ye asker g\u00f6ndermesini kendi kamuoyuna izah\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Bu durumda, Washington ya hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla sonuca ula\u015fmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak, ya da b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin de, hava harek\u00e2t\u0131na paralel olarak kara birlikleriyle devreye girmesini isteyecektir. Esad y\u00f6netiminin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede devrilmemesi durumunda b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kap\u0131s\u0131 aralanabilir.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6rt ihtimalden hangisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ger\u00e7ekle\u015fsin, Esad’\u0131n devrilmesi halinde Suriye’de nas\u0131l bir d\u00fczen kurulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da \u00e7ok iyi hesaplanmas\u0131 gerekir. Esad sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, Bosna ve Kosova \u00f6rneklerine benzer \u015fekilde Suriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n, i\u00e7lerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve b\u00f6lge devletlerinin askerlerinin de bulundu\u011fu \u00e7ok uluslu bir istikrar g\u00fcc\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine denetim alt\u0131nda tutulmamas\u0131 halinde, \u00fclkenin \u00e7ok uzun y\u0131llar normalle\u015femeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Suriye krizinden en fazla etkilenen \u00fclke olan T\u00fcrkiye’nin, \u015fayet bir m\u00fcdahaleyle devrilecekse, Esad sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in siyasi modelini \u015fimdiden geli\u015ftirmesi ve bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermesi gerekir. Libya \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, m\u00fcdahalenin planlanmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi kadar sonras\u0131nda ne olaca\u011f\u0131 da ince ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmelidir. Fakat M\u0131s\u0131r darbesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki tutumlar\u0131 sebebiyle Washington ve Riyad’la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fayan Ankara’n\u0131n geli\u015ftirece\u011fi “Esad sonras\u0131 Suriye” modelinin ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ra\u011fbet g\u00f6rece\u011fi de ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

VEDA<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

De\u011ferli okuyucular, Eyl\u00fcl 2008’de ba\u015flayan “Diplomatik Muha-keme”deki beraberli\u011fimiz bu yaz\u0131 ile bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine sona eriyor. Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bu d\u00f6rt y\u0131l boyunca, bana elektronik posta yoluyla ula\u015farak de\u011ferli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini payla\u015fan t\u00fcm okuyuculara te\u015fekk\u00fcr ederim. Yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131n sizlere ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda, sayfa d\u00fczeninden, foto\u011fraflamaya ve tashihe kadar de\u011ferli katk\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 esirgemeyen t\u00fcm T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131na ve bir aile ortam\u0131nda oldu\u011fumuzu her zaman hissettiren gazete y\u00f6netimine de \u015f\u00fckranlar\u0131m\u0131 sunar\u0131m. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ve \u00f6nerilerinizi elektronik posta ile bana iletmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilirsiniz. Allah’a emanet olunuz.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Birinci ve en zay\u0131f ihtimal; Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin alaca\u011f\u0131 bir kararla m\u00fcdahalenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi. Orta Do\u011fu’da bu t\u00fcrden bir m\u00fcdahale en son 1990’da Kuveyt’i i\u015fgal eden Irak’a kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015fti. BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi, o zamanki Sovyetler Birli\u011fi’nin “evet” oyu verdi\u011fi, \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin ise “\u00e7ekimser” kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir oylama sonras\u0131nda Saddam H\u00fcseyin y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na karar vermi\u015fti. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13542,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1554","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1554\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}