\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda ilan edilmemi\u015f bir sava\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Taraflar birbirlerini roketler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla vuruyorlar. \u0130ran \u0130srail’e sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yollad\u0131\u011f\u0131 silahlar\u0131n %98’i ABD, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan daha \u0130srail hava sahas\u0131na girmeden imha edilmi\u015fti. \u0130srail \u0130ran’a hipersonik Jerico f\u00fczeleriyle sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise \u0130ran’\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131na kimse gelmedi. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde, “sava\u015f benzeri durum\/ yar\u0131 sava\u015f\/Quasi War” olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bir vaziyetle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Bu art\u0131k bir “g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterisinin” \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7ti. Peki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yay\u0131lma riski var m\u0131? \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki tabloyu be\u015f ihtimal \u00fczerinden tahlil etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal 1: \u0130srail ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir harek\u00e2t ba\u015flatmas\u0131:
Netanyahu’nun \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek son 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r m\u00fctemadiyen istedi\u011fi \u015fey bu. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali ise s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. \u0130ran’a bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 mevcut \u015fartlarda zaten yap\u0131lamaz. ABD’nin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde devreye girmesi i\u00e7in \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki Amerikan asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesi gerekir. Suriye veya K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerindeki ABD \u00fcslerine herhangi bir \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi takdirde elbette ABD buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verecektir. Tahran y\u00f6netiminin bunu g\u00f6ze alabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemez. \u00c7ok zay\u0131f bir ihtimal olsa da Rusya’n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k destek vermesi, silah ve m\u00fchimmat sa\u011flamas\u0131 durumunda \u0130ran ABD’nin can\u0131n\u0131 yakacak i\u015flere kalk\u0131\u015fabilir. Bu ise ABD ile Rusya’y\u0131 do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirir. B\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, \u0130ran ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerdeki so\u011fuklu\u011fu gidermek i\u00e7in yo\u011fun \u00e7aba sarf eden ve b\u00f6lgedeki ticari varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapan \u00c7in’in de i\u015fine gelmez.
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal 2: \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’de a\u011f\u0131r kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7acak topyek\u00fbn bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi:
Tahran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 daha \u00f6nce kullanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 ya da f\u00fcze savunma sitemleri taraf\u0131ndan durdurulmas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor. S\u00fcpersonik f\u00fczelerle sald\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in evvela bu t\u00fcrden ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan silah sistemlerine sahip olmas\u0131 gerekir. Ge\u00e7it t\u00f6renlerinde sergilenen f\u00fcze sistemlerinin -deneme ama\u00e7l\u0131 olanlar hari\u00e7- hen\u00fcz \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan hi\u00e7 kullan\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde operasyonel olduklar\u0131n\u0131n bilinmedi\u011fini ak\u0131ldan \u00e7\u0131karmamak laz\u0131m. Kald\u0131 ki cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, Tel Aviv’in elinde sesten 5 kat h\u0131zl\u0131 1400 km menzilli 400 ila 1300 kilo harp ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilen f\u00fczeler bulunmaktad\u0131r. Yani \u0130ran’\u0131n herhangi bir Orta Menzilli F\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na \u0130srail’in misliyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir durumda ABD’nin de -tek ba\u015f\u0131na ya da \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa’yla birlikte- \u0130ran’\u0131n altyap\u0131 tesislerini ve \u00fcslerini hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u0130ran’da, %100 ma\u011flubiyetiyle sonu\u00e7lanacak b\u00f6yle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan uzak duracak devlet akl\u0131n\u0131n mevcut oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilebilir.
Orta ihtimal 1: \u0130ran’\u0131n L\u00fcbnan ve Suriye’deki vekillerini kullanarak \u0130srail’e roket sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi:
Al\u00e7ak irtifa ve yak\u0131n mesafeden, g\u00fcd\u00fcms\u00fcz roketlerle yap\u0131lacak bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011fun olmas\u0131 durumunda Demir Kubbe 7 Ekim’deki gibi delinebilir.
Bu durumda \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan ve Suriye’deki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 silahl\u0131 gruplara ait hedeflere oldu\u011fu gibi, sald\u0131r\u0131 emrini veren \u0130ran’a da kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesi s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. \u0130srail’in muhtemel kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’a bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek de vard\u0131r. 2006 sava\u015f\u0131 \u0130srail’e Hizbullah’la \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n zorluklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Netanyahu, a\u011f\u0131r asker\u00ee kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7abilecek bu hamleyi yapmak yerine, hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermeyi tercih edecektir.
Orta ihtimal 2: \u0130ran’\u0131n vekilleri yoluyla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz’deki tanker trafi\u011fini hedef almas\u0131:
Tahran’\u0131n bu hamlesi \u0130srail’den ziyade ticaret i\u00e7in bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 kullanan \u00fclkelere zarar verir. Petrol ve ham made fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselir. Bu hamleden \u0130ran’\u0131n murat etti\u011fi, zarar g\u00f6recek \u00fclkelerin devreye girerek \u0130srail’in \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmalar\u0131n\u0131 temin etmek ise bu \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131 elde etmesi zordur. Aksine, \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 zedelenen devletlerin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermeleri s\u00f6z konusu olabilir.
Orta-y\u00fcksek ihtimal: ABD, \u00c7in ve Rusya’n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yay\u0131lmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015f birli\u011fi yapmalar\u0131:
Gerilimin mevcut h\u00e2lin \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7mesi ve yay\u0131lmas\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Irak ve Suriye’de bocalamakta olan ABD’nin uzun vadeli b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ayk\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan ticaretin kesilmemesi ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckselmemesidir. Rusya ise \u0130ran i\u00e7in devreye girmek kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ukrayna’da Bat\u0131’yla pazarl\u0131k masas\u0131na oturmak isteyebilir. Tarihte defalarca g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rler kendi aralar\u0131nda anla\u015farak, t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na olan bir y\u00f6ntemi benimseyebilirler.
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran ile \u0130srail aras\u0131nda ilan edilmemi\u015f bir sava\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Taraflar birbirlerini roketler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla vuruyorlar. \u0130ran \u0130srail’e sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yollad\u0131\u011f\u0131 silahlar\u0131n %98’i ABD, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan daha \u0130srail hava sahas\u0131na girmeden imha edilmi\u015fti. \u0130srail \u0130ran’a hipersonik Jerico f\u00fczeleriyle sald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise \u0130ran’\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131na kimse gelmedi. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde, “sava\u015f benzeri durum\/ yar\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15186,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15187,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15185\/revisions\/15187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}