{"id":1512,"date":"2013-05-21T12:26:43","date_gmt":"2013-05-21T09:26:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1512"},"modified":"2024-03-07T16:14:35","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T13:14:35","slug":"suriye-icin-dayton-formulu-gercekci-mi-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1512","title":{"rendered":"Suriye i\u00e7in “Dayton Form\u00fcl\u00fc” ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i mi? (21.05.2013) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cenevre g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hemen \u00f6ncesinde, Suriye i\u00e7in “Dayton Form\u00fcl\u00fc”n\u00fcn i\u015fletilebilece\u011fi s\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Dayton Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l s\u00fcren ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu 250 binden fazla insan\u0131n hayat\u0131na mal olan Bosna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131 1995 sonunda bitiren anla\u015fmad\u0131r. Bo\u015fnak, H\u0131rvat ve S\u0131rp temsilcilerin s\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamalar\u0131nda, ABD ile S\u0131rplara destek veren Rusya aras\u0131nda uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. ABD, Bo\u015fnaklar\u0131n ve H\u0131rvatlar\u0131n, Rusya ise S\u0131rplar\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f masas\u0131na oturmas\u0131n\u0131 temin etmi\u015ftir.ABD ve Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye’nin gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in Cenevre’de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fmalar\u0131, Esad rejiminin uluslararas\u0131 bir asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleyle devrilmesi se\u00e7ene\u011fini en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in g\u00fcndemden kald\u0131rd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dayton Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile bir yandan silahlar susmu\u015f, di\u011fer yandan ise bug\u00fcn de varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 devam ettiren Bosna-Hersek Konfederasyonu kurulmu\u015ftur. Anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, 3 toplum aras\u0131nda toprak de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015fu yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, n\u00fcfus bak\u0131m\u0131ndan nispeten m\u00fctecanis kantonlar olu\u015fturulmu\u015f ve bu b\u00f6lgeleri ihtiva eden S\u0131rp Cumhuriyeti ile Bo\u015fnak-H\u0131rvat Federasyonu kurulmu\u015ftur. Dayton h\u00fck\u00fcmlerinin ihlal edilmemesini temin maksad\u0131yla BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi kararlar\u0131na uygun bi\u00e7imde evvele Uygulama Kuvveti (IFOR) ard\u0131ndan da \u0130stikrar G\u00fcc\u00fc (SFOR) ad\u0131yla iki \u00e7ok uluslu asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 Bosna’da konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2004’e kadar Bosna’daki misyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcren s\u00f6z konusu birlikler, taraflar aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin yumu\u015famas\u0131na katk\u0131 verdi\u011fi gibi, Eski Yugoslavya Uluslararas\u0131 Ceza Mahkemesi taraf\u0131ndan aranan \u00e7ok say\u0131da sava\u015f su\u00e7lusunu da ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u0131saca tahlil edildi\u011finde Dayton’un arkas\u0131nda iki itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: Birincisi, ABD-Rusya mutabakat\u0131. \u0130kincisi ise BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi kararlar\u0131. Suriye i\u00e7in Dayton form\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilmesi i\u00e7in bu iki unsurun da mutlaka bulunmas\u0131 gerekir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00e7ok uluslu bir asker\u00ee g\u00fcc\u00fcn Suriye’deki ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rev yapmas\u0131 mutlaka gereklidir. Bu noktada, Dayton benzeri bir anla\u015fman\u0131n olabilirli\u011fini bir yana b\u0131rakarak, e\u011fer olursa uygulanabilirli\u011fi \u00fczerinde dural\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>\n

E\u011fer t\u00fcm taraflar Suriye’nin kantonlara ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, toprak de\u011fi\u015f toku\u015funu ve olu\u015fturulacak par\u00e7a devletler aras\u0131nda gev\u015fek bir konfederasyon kurmay\u0131 kabul etseler bile, bu plan\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 son derece zay\u0131ft\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc;<\/span><\/p>\n

> Bosna-Hersek’in n\u00fcfusu 3 milyon 800 bindir. Bunun % 48’ini M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar, % 37’sini S\u0131rplar, %14’\u00fcn\u00fc ise H\u0131rvatlar olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Yani M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar ile di\u011fer unsurlar aras\u0131nda bir denge mevcuttur. Suriye’nin n\u00fcfusu ise -ba\u015fka \u00fclkelere giden s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131lar d\u00e2hil- 22.5 milyondur. \u00dclkede ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n % 90’\u0131 Arap, % 7 kadar\u0131 ise K\u00fcrt’t\u00fcr. N\u00fcfusun % 75’i S\u00fcnni, %15’i Nusayri ve D\u00fcrzi’dir. N\u00fcfusun %10’luk b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ise H\u0131ristiyan’d\u0131r. Her ne kadar Suriye’de taraflar rejimin sahibi Nusayriler ve muhalif S\u00fcnniler olarak tan\u0131mlansa da, asl\u0131nda her iki tarafta s\u00f6z konusu ana unsurlara mensup olmayan kesimler de yer almaktad\u0131r. Sadece bu karma\u015f\u0131k n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131 bile, \u00fclkeyi etnik ya da din\u00ee \u00f6zelliklere g\u00f6re par\u00e7alara ay\u0131rman\u0131n zorlu\u011funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

> Bosna Sava\u015f\u0131 bitti\u011finde, \u00fc\u00e7 kesimin elinde bulundurdu\u011fu topraklar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde di\u011fer kesimleri i\u00e7ermemekteydi. S\u0131rplar\u0131n soyk\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 neticesinde evvelce Bo\u015fnaklar\u0131n da ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir\u00e7ok yerle\u015fim birimi tamamen S\u0131rpla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Zorunlu i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7lerin sonucu m\u00fctecanis birimler ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Suriye’de ise 2 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen, Bosna’dakine benzer bir n\u00fcfus da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olu\u015fmad\u0131. Nusayrilerin \u00e7o\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu zannedilen Lazkiye merkezinde bile \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu S\u00fcnniler olu\u015fturmakta. Lazkiye k\u0131rsal\u0131nda ise S\u00fcnniler az\u0131nl\u0131\u011fa d\u00fc\u015fmekteler. E\u011fer Dayton’dakine benzer federal yap\u0131lar Suriye i\u00e7in de g\u00fcndeme getirilirse, n\u00fcfus m\u00fcbadelesi yap\u0131lmadan, s\u0131rf S\u00fcnni ya da s\u0131rf Nusayri yerle\u015fim birimlerinin olu\u015fmas\u0131 neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131zd\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

> Son olarak, Bosna-Hersek’in y\u00fcz\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc 51.197 kilometrekare. Dayton’u bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fclkede uygulayabilmek i\u00e7in 54.000 asker gerekmi\u015fti. Suriye ise 186.475 kilometrekarelik bir y\u00fcz\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne sahip. Bu kadar geni\u015f bir alan\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck bir n\u00fcfusu, Esad sonras\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde istikrar i\u00e7inde tutabilmek i\u00e7in ka\u00e7 ki\u015filik bir\u00e7ok uluslu asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 gerekebilece\u011fini hesaplamak son derece zor. \u00dcstelik, Suriye’de g\u00f6rev almaya istekli \u00e7ok fazla devlet yokken.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar Dayton tipi bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n Suriye’de uygulanabilme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Ke\u015fke Cenevre’de Esad’s\u0131z ve demokratik Suriye i\u00e7in t\u00fcm taraflar anla\u015fabilse de, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f ya\u015fanmadan akan kan bir an \u00f6nce dursa…<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cenevre g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hemen \u00f6ncesinde, Suriye i\u00e7in “Dayton Form\u00fcl\u00fc”n\u00fcn i\u015fletilebilece\u011fi s\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirilmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Dayton Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l s\u00fcren ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu 250 binden fazla insan\u0131n hayat\u0131na mal olan Bosna Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131 1995 sonunda bitiren anla\u015fmad\u0131r. Bo\u015fnak, H\u0131rvat ve S\u0131rp temsilcilerin s\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamalar\u0131nda, ABD ile S\u0131rplara destek veren Rusya aras\u0131nda uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1512","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1512"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1512\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13149,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1512\/revisions\/13149"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1512"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1512"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1512"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}