{"id":1429,"date":"2012-12-25T10:24:14","date_gmt":"2012-12-25T08:24:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1429"},"modified":"2024-03-07T16:55:29","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T13:55:29","slug":"orta-doguda-guvenlik-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1429","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu’da g\u00fcvenlik (25.12.2012) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bir hafta i\u00e7inde g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131nda iki \u00f6nemli akademik toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130lki 19. Antalya Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcvenlik Konferans\u0131’yd\u0131. T\u00fcrk Atlantik Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Naci Koru’nun yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131ya NATO \u00fclkeleri ve Rusya’dan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri ve g\u00fcvenlik yetkilisi kat\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130kinci toplant\u0131 ise Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi’nin Ilgaz’da d\u00fczenledi\u011fi 7. G\u00fcvenlik Akademisi’ydi. Bu toplant\u0131ya da g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131nda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00e7ok say\u0131da akademisyen ve diplomat kat\u0131ld\u0131. Her iki toplant\u0131n\u0131n ortak konular\u0131ndan biri Orta Do\u011fu’nun gelece\u011fiydi. T\u00fcm kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar Orta Do\u011fu’daki g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin Arap Bahar\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde, daha \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerden farkl\u0131 ve ne y\u00f6ne do\u011fru geli\u015fece\u011finin tahmini zor bir yap\u0131ya b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc konusunda hemfikir kald\u0131lar. B\u00f6lgenin mevcut durumuna ve gelece\u011fine dair yedi temel analizi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da sunuyorum. Birincisi, Arap Bahar\u0131’n\u0131n gelece\u011fi konusu. \u015eimdilik bu r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n etkisini daha az hissediyor gibi g\u00f6z\u00fcken Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin orta vadede Arap Bahar\u0131’n\u0131n etkisini hissetmeleri ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmazd\u0131r. Orta Do\u011fu monar\u015filerinin g\u00fcncel siyaseti, de\u011fi\u015fim dalgas\u0131n\u0131n kendilerine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca geciktirmek hedefine kilitlenmi\u015ftir. Suudi Arabistan ve Katar gibi \u00fclkeler, M\u0131s\u0131r, Tunus, Libya ve Suriye diktat\u00f6rlerini sevmediklerinden de\u011fil, bu \u00fclkelerdeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn tamamen denetimden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in geli\u015fmelere m\u00fcdahil olmaktad\u0131rlar. \u0130kincisi, Orta Do\u011fu’daki ittifak ve i\u015f birli\u011fi yap\u0131lar\u0131yla ilgili. B\u00f6lgede, uzun soluklu de\u011fil, g\u00fcndelik geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6re, nerdeyse “anl\u0131k” olarak nitelendirilebilecek dayan\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. \u015eimdilik, Kuzey Afrika ve Suriye konusunda ayn\u0131 hareket tarz\u0131n\u0131 benimsemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fcken T\u00fcrkiye, Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde bu s\u00f6z konusu birlikteliklerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmeleri daha da zorla\u015facakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, b\u00f6lgede demokratik kurumlar\u0131n yerle\u015fmesini ve se\u00e7im yoluyla gelen \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u0130slami unsurlar\u0131 desteklerken, Suudi Arabistan “demokrasi” kavram\u0131na mesafeli durmakta ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin aksine Vehhabi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceye yak\u0131n Selefi unsurlara destek vermektedir. Bu durum en net \u015fekilde M\u0131s\u0131r ve Tunus’ta su y\u00fcz\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00f6lge geli\u015fmelerine yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla ilgili. \u0130ran hem Irak’taki siyasi bunal\u0131mdan hem de Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yararlanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakta, mezhep ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6r\u00fcklenmesiyle belirginle\u015fen “\u015eii Ekseni” kurma hedefine do\u011fru ilerlemektedir. Bu durum kendi anti-tezini meydana getirmekte ve S\u00fcnnilerin de, \u015eiilerden ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonucunu vermektedir. Bu ise mezhep temelli ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha derin b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerin temelini atmaktad\u0131r. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130srail’in durumuyla ilgili. \u0130srail, Arap Bahar\u0131’n\u0131 hem endi\u015fe hem de memnuniyetle takip etmektedir. \u0130srail’i endi\u015felendiren, Arap \u00fclkelerinde kendi varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 gruplar\u0131n iktidara gelmesidir. Fakat \u0130srail, Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin kendi i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131na odaklanmalar\u0131ndan ve bilhassa \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131ndaki gerginlikten memnundur. Bu iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u0130srail’in g\u00fcvenli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u00e7lar sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmektedir. Be\u015fincisi k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin durumu. Orta Do\u011fu’da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 bu \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck devletin b\u00f6lge politikalar\u0131ndan ve aralar\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel rekabetten ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z yorumlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. K\u00fcresel liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’ya tabii yans\u0131mas\u0131, bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha karma\u015f\u0131k ve uzun s\u00fcrecek \u00e7ok-tarafl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u015feklinde olabilir. B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 silahlanmalar\u0131, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131ktan ziyade, sava\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u015e\u00fcphesiz, b\u00f6lgedeki muhtemel bir silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin b\u00f6lgesel vekilleri aras\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r. Alt\u0131nc\u0131s\u0131 Suriye’nin gelece\u011fi konusu. Esad sonras\u0131 Suriye’de huzurun temin edilebilmesi ve ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fleyebilmesi ancak BM odakl\u0131 bir uluslararas\u0131 denetim mekanizmas\u0131yla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Taraflar\u0131n silahlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131 da kapsayacak b\u00f6yle bir d\u0131\u015f denetim s\u00f6z konusu olmazsa, \u015fimdikine benzer katliamlar, farkl\u0131 kesimleri hedef alarak, Esad sonras\u0131nda da s\u00fcrebilir. Yedincisi Irak’\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc konusu. Bu \u00fclkenin siyasi olarak b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesini engellemek giderek daha m\u00fc\u015fk\u00fcl bir hal almaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin tasvibini almadan bir K\u00fcrt devletinin kurulmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Irak’\u0131n m\u00fcdahil olabilece\u011fi bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 beraberinde getirebilir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten en fazla zarar g\u00f6receklerin ba\u015f\u0131nda Irak T\u00fcrkmenleri gelmektedir. G\u00fcvenlik uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu’ya dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri b\u00f6yle. \u00d6zetle Orta Do\u011fu T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015f Politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli konusu olmaya uzun m\u00fcddet daha devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bir hafta i\u00e7inde g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131nda iki \u00f6nemli akademik toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130lki 19. Antalya Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcvenlik Konferans\u0131’yd\u0131. T\u00fcrk Atlantik Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen ve a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Naci Koru’nun yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131ya NATO \u00fclkeleri ve Rusya’dan \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri ve g\u00fcvenlik yetkilisi kat\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130kinci toplant\u0131 ise Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi’nin Ilgaz’da d\u00fczenledi\u011fi 7. G\u00fcvenlik Akademisi’ydi. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13265,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1429"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1429\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13266,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1429\/revisions\/13266"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}