{"id":1370,"date":"2012-08-07T09:31:53","date_gmt":"2012-08-07T06:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1370"},"modified":"2024-03-07T17:25:42","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T14:25:42","slug":"suriyeyi-bekleyen-3-felaket-senaryosu-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1370","title":{"rendered":"Suriye’yi bekleyen 3 felaket senaryosu (07.08.2012) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Suriye’deki durum h\u0131zla T\u00fcrkiye’nin en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenlik meselelerinden bir haline geliyor. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131m\u0131zda beliren yeni ter\u00f6r yuvas\u0131 olu\u015fumu, Irak B\u00f6lgesel K\u00fcrt Y\u00f6netimi’yle daha s\u0131k\u0131 ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmemizin yolunu a\u00e7t\u0131. Davuto\u011flu bu ama\u00e7la ge\u00e7en hafta Erbil’deydi. Fakat bu giri\u015fim de, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bir s\u00fcredir problemler ya\u015famakta oldu\u011fu Maliki h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin sert tepkisini \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran zaten Esad rejiminin yan\u0131nda. T\u00fcrkiye Irak’\u0131n i\u00e7i\u015flerine m\u00fcdahil bir \u00fclke g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc sergiledik\u00e7e, Maliki de Esad’a olan deste\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Suriye’den sonra bir di\u011fer “s\u0131f\u0131r sorunlu” stratejik orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olan Irak’\u0131 da kaybettik. B\u00f6lgede var olan karmakar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ve \u00e7ok bilinmeyenli denklemlerin nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek g\u00fc\u00e7. Ama baz\u0131 senaryolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye’nin en fazla arzu etti\u011fi senaryo, Esad y\u00f6netiminin bir an \u00f6nce devrilmesi, silahlar\u0131n derhal susmas\u0131, yeni Suriye y\u00f6netiminin \u00fclkedeki t\u00fcm kesimleri kapsayan geni\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurmas\u0131, \u00fclkede demokrasinin k\u00f6k salmas\u0131, Suriye’nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn korunmas\u0131 ve yeni y\u00f6netimin T\u00fcrkiye ile eskisinden \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7ine girmesi. Suriye i\u00e7in Davuto\u011flu ve arkada\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n temennisi olan bu Suriye senaryosu i\u00e7in herhalde “bundan iyisi \u015eam’da kay\u0131s\u0131” demeliyiz. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n olan senaryo budur. Davuto\u011flu’nun temennilerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p, biraz daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olursak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde muhtemel manzaran\u0131n hi\u00e7 de i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. K\u0131sa vadede \u00fc\u00e7 felaket senaryosu s\u00f6z konusu olabilir: Birincisi, Esad’\u0131n direnmeye devam ederek, kitlesel katliamlara giri\u015fmesidir. Binlerce insan\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi \u00fclkede, \u015fimdiye kadar tan\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z oranda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015fiddet ya\u015fanabilir. Devrilmemek i\u00e7in son g\u00fc\u00e7lerini de pervas\u0131zca kullanan Baas mensuplar\u0131 ellerindeki t\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7le muhaliflere sald\u0131rabilir. Bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda en b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar\u0131 da yine siviller g\u00f6recektir. \u00c7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olmakla birlikte, kimyasal silahlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lma ihtimali de vard\u0131r. \u0130kinci felaket senaryosu, Suriye muhalefetinin Esad’\u0131n devrilmesinden sonra \u00fclkede giri\u015fece\u011fi “r\u00f6van\u015f”t\u0131r. Ele ge\u00e7irdikleri Suriye asker ve polislerini nas\u0131l ac\u0131mas\u0131zca d\u00f6vd\u00fcklerini ve kur\u015funa dizdiklerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz “\u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu” mensuplar\u0131, Baas\u00e7\u0131 av\u0131na ba\u015flayabilir. Bu av k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede Nusayri av\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir. B\u00f6yle olunca da, bir musibetten tam kurtulmu\u015fken, Suriye yeni bir musibete gark olur. Benzerini 2003’ten sonra Irak’ta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi, bu kez eski rejim yanl\u0131lar\u0131 yeralt\u0131na inerek silahl\u0131 m\u00fccadele ba\u015flat\u0131rlar. \u00dclke uzun s\u00fcrecek bir i\u00e7 sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenir ve L\u00fcbnanla\u015f\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc felaket senaryosu Suriye’nin \u00fc\u00e7e b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesidir. \u0130ktidardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan Baas, Lazkiye-Tartus hatt\u0131nda mezhep temelli bir yeni devlet kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. Bunu yapabilmek i\u00e7in de, s\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgedeki S\u00fcnni n\u00fcfusu sindirmeye ve yok etmeye giri\u015febilir. Di\u011fer yandan K\u00fcrtler de kendi devletlerini kurma te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunabilirler. Esad sonras\u0131 sanc\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde, t\u0131pk\u0131 Libya ve M\u0131s\u0131r gibi \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu gibi, i\u00e7 siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmelerle bo\u011fu\u015facak olan yeni Suriye y\u00f6netimi \u00fclkenin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesini engelleyebilecek tedbirleri almakta aciz kalabilir. Nusayrilere ve K\u00fcrtlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fiddet kullanarak b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeyi \u00f6nlemeye kalk\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 halinde ise, b\u00f6l\u00fcnme daha fazla kan d\u00f6k\u00fclerek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir. Felaket senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini \u00f6nlemenin yolu Suriye rejiminin devrilmesi i\u00e7in -T\u00fcrkiye d\u00e2hil- baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6sterilen gayretin, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de g\u00f6sterilmesidir. “Suriye Halk\u0131n\u0131n Dostlar\u0131” ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda yap\u0131lan uluslararas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar kurumsal bir nitelik kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yeni Suriye’nin sorunsuz bi\u00e7imde kurulmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flamak isteyen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda iyi i\u015fleyen bir koordinasyon mekanizmas\u0131 kurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Cuma Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Genel Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen Suriye karar\u0131 hukuki referans olarak al\u0131nmak suretiyle, Suriye i\u00e7in \u00e7ok uluslu bir acil eylem plan\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe sokulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Suriye’nin gelece\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye’nin etkin bir rol oynayabilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6n \u015fart evvela kendi i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik meselesini \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fc\u015f olmakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye bunu k\u0131sa vadede ba\u015faramayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, Yeni Suriye’nin \u015fekillendirilmesini s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n \u00f6te yan\u0131ndan seyretmekten gayri yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir \u015fey yoktur. Tabii Davuto\u011flu’nun yeni Suriye hayalleri kurmas\u0131n\u0131 ve g\u00fczel temennilerde bulunmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen bir yasak da yoktur.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Suriye’deki durum h\u0131zla T\u00fcrkiye’nin en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenlik meselelerinden bir haline geliyor. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131m\u0131zda beliren yeni ter\u00f6r yuvas\u0131 olu\u015fumu, Irak B\u00f6lgesel K\u00fcrt Y\u00f6netimi’yle daha s\u0131k\u0131 ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmemizin yolunu a\u00e7t\u0131. Davuto\u011flu bu ama\u00e7la ge\u00e7en hafta Erbil’deydi. Fakat bu giri\u015fim de, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bir s\u00fcredir problemler ya\u015famakta oldu\u011fu Maliki h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin sert tepkisini \u00e7ekti. \u0130ran zaten Esad rejiminin yan\u0131nda. T\u00fcrkiye Irak’\u0131n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13338,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1370","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1370"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1370\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13340,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1370\/revisions\/13340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1370"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1370"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1370"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}