{"id":1319,"date":"2012-04-10T09:14:38","date_gmt":"2012-04-10T06:14:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1319"},"modified":"2024-03-07T17:50:09","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T14:50:09","slug":"iran-ne-istiyor-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1319","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran ne istiyor? (10.04.2012) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE’Y\u0130 KAR\u015eILARINA ALMAMALILAR <\/strong>\u00dclkesi ciddi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa gebeyken, akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u0130ranl\u0131 y\u00f6neticinin, ABD’nin yo\u011fun bask\u0131lar\u0131na direnerek, bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran’la dostane ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye’yi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almamas\u0131 beklenir. B\u00dcY\u00dcK KR\u0130Z KAPIDA VE FARKINDALAR… <\/strong>\u0130ran rejiminin savunucular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funun fark\u0131ndalar. T\u00fcrkiye’yi \u0130ran’a yabanc\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, patlamaya haz\u0131r bir saatli bomba g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki Orta Do\u011fu’da bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesis edilmesine hizmet etmez. TOPYEK\u00dbN \u0130ZOLASYON GELEB\u0130LER <\/strong>\u0130ran, bug\u00fcn yanlar\u0131nda bulduklar\u0131 Rusya ve \u00c7in gibi devletlerin her zaman onlar\u0131 destekleyeceklerini san\u0131yorlar. H\u00e2lbuki k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak pazarl\u0131klar sonucunda, hi\u00e7 beklemedikleri bir topyek\u00fbn izolasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilirler.AHMED\u0130NECAT ZAYIFLIYOR <\/strong>Mahmut Ahmedinecat’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r dini lider Ali Hamaney ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 sebebiyle y\u00f6netim g\u00fcc\u00fcnde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir azalma ya\u015famas\u0131, reform yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131 umutland\u0131r\u0131yor. Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi ve Mehdi Karrubi gibi muhaliflerin ev hapsinde tutulmalar\u0131 destek\u00e7ilerinin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye yetmiyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki soruyu belki de “\u0130ran rejimi ne istiyor?” \u015feklinde sormak daha do\u011fru olurdu. Zira kom\u015fumuz \u0130ran’\u0131n y\u00f6neticilerinin uluslararas\u0131 alandan beklenti ve istekleriyle, halk\u0131n talepleri aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urum giderek derinle\u015fiyor. \u0130ran, 1980-1988 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Irak’la yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015ftan bu yana en \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fcnlerini ya\u015f\u0131yor. Problemleri iki ana ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131nda ele almak gerekir. \u0130\u00c7 S\u0130YASETTE SIKINTI VAR <\/strong>Birinci ba\u015fl\u0131k i\u00e7 siyasette ya\u015fanmakta olan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lard\u0131r. Rejimin b\u00fct\u00fcn bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen siyasal muhalefet g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmaya devam ediyor. Haziran 2009’da yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imi kazanarak ikinci defa cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koltu\u011funa oturan Mahmut Ahmedinecat’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r dini lider Ali Hamaney ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 sebebiyle y\u00f6netim g\u00fcc\u00fcnde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir azalma ya\u015famas\u0131, reform yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131 umutland\u0131r\u0131yor. Mir H\u00fcseyin Musavi ve Mehdi Karrubi gibi muhaliflerin ev hapsinde tutulmalar\u0131 destek\u00e7ilerinin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye yetmiyor. 2 Mart’ta yap\u0131lan milletvekili se\u00e7iminde reformcular toplam oyun %35’ini alm\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte, Meclis’teki sandalyelerin ancak % 26’s\u0131na sahip olabildiler. Bu bile \u0130ran Meclisi’nin en az d\u00f6rtte birlik bir kesiminin mevcut y\u00f6netimin uygulamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kanlardan olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Kald\u0131 ki, Meclis’te % 63’l\u00fck bir sandalye g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen “rejim yanl\u0131s\u0131” muhafazak\u00e2rlar kendi aralar\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi problemler ya\u015f\u0131yor. Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ali Laricani’nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Birle\u015fik Cephe, Ahmedinecat’\u0131n destek\u00e7ileri olan \u0130slam Devrimi \u0130stikrar Cephesi’nin iki kat\u0131ndan fazla milletvekiline sahip. Ali Laricani, Ali Hamaney ile s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde Mahmut Ahmedinecat’\u0131n \u00fclke y\u00f6netimindeki etkisini yava\u015f yava\u015f ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. KOZLARINI PAYLA\u015eIYORLAR <\/strong>\u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetini yak\u0131n gelecekte iki \u00f6nemli s\u0131nav bekliyor. Haziran 2013’te yap\u0131lacak cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminde ipi \u00f6nde g\u00f6\u011f\u00fcslemeyi hedefleyen muhtemel adaylar \u015fimdiden Ahmedinecat y\u00f6netimiyle kozlar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar. Aday olaca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131lan Laricani’nin son d\u00f6nemdeki siyasal \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda da, dini liderin deste\u011fini almak ve reformistlerin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir aday olarak \u00e7\u0131kma istedi\u011fi yat\u0131yor. Laricani, Ahmedinecat’\u0131n herhangi bir yak\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma arkada\u015f\u0131na cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapt\u0131rmak istemiyor. HAMANEY’DEN SONRASI TUFAN <\/strong>\u0130\u00e7 siyasetin ikinci s\u0131nav\u0131 ise cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7iminden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli. Dini lider, ya da \u0130ran’daki ad\u0131yla “Rehber-i Muazzam” Hamaney’in yerine kimin ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u0130ran’da en fazla merak edilen konular\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. 1939 do\u011fumlu olan Hamaney’in sa\u011fl\u0131k durumuna ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylentiler 2009 se\u00e7iminden sonra h\u0131z kazand\u0131. S\u0131k s\u0131k kamuoyunun \u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131karak, a\u011f\u0131r hasta oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddialar\u0131 yalanlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da, sonu\u00e7ta Hamaney de -b\u00fct\u00fcn faniler gibi- bir g\u00fcn \u00f6lecek. O g\u00fcn geldi\u011finde, \u0130ran’da cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 herkesin \u00fczerinde bulunan bu makama kimin oturaca\u011f\u0131, bu s\u00fcrecin s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131z atlat\u0131l\u0131p atlat\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran’da say\u0131lar\u0131 40’\u0131 bulan B\u00fcy\u00fck Ayetullahlar (Ayetullah-\u0131 Uzma) aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak rekabetin toplumsal b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeye yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131 gibi hususlar \u0130ran’\u0131n gelece\u011fini de tayin edecek. \u0130slam Devrimi’nin lideri Humeyni taraf\u0131ndan ortaya at\u0131lan “Velayet-i Fakih” yani “kay\u0131p” 12. \u0130mam d\u00f6nene kadar ona vek\u00e2let edilmesi g\u00f6revini de yerine getiren dini liderin kim olaca\u011f\u0131 o kadar \u00f6nemli ki, \u0130ran siyasetinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan isimler, Hamaney sonras\u0131 bu koltu\u011fa oturabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fckleri “Ayetullahlar\u0131n” birine ya da birka\u00e7\u0131na \u015fimdiden yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yorlar. Elbette bu son derece riskli bir i\u015f. Hem yanl\u0131\u015f Ayetullaha yana\u015fma riski hem de beklendi\u011finden uzun ya\u015famas\u0131 durumunda Hamaney’in g\u00f6z\u00fcnden d\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali var.D\u00dcNYAYI \u0130KNA EDEM\u0130YOR <\/strong>\u0130ran’da rejimin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck problemi d\u0131\u015f politika alan\u0131nda. N\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131n bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 ama\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik oldu\u011fu konusunda ABD ve AB \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nemli devletlerinden bir\u00e7o\u011funu ikna edemeyen \u0130ran, a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n cezas\u0131n\u0131 halk\u0131na \u00f6detiyor. ABD’nin s\u0131k\u0131 takip\u00e7isi oldu\u011fu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden, \u0130ran’a ve \u0130ran’dan para transferi neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale geldi. Son olarak \u0130ran bankalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 para aktar\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan SWIFT kodundan yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ve \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u015f adamlar\u0131na uzun s\u00fcredir hizmet veren Dubai bankalar\u0131n\u0131n da yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kat\u0131lmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticarete \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir darbe indirdi. \u00c7in ve Hindistan’\u0131n verdi\u011fi al\u0131m garantisine ra\u011fmen, \u0130ran’\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn ihra\u00e7 mallar\u0131n\u0131n % 78’ini olu\u015fturan petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ya\u015fan\u0131yor. AB, 1 Temmuz’dan itibaren \u0130ran’dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 durduracak. Kendilerine ayr\u0131cal\u0131k tan\u0131nan Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi \u00fclkeler \u0130ran’dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131na devam edecek olsalar da, bunlar\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde kademeli bir k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gitmeleri s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. T\u00fcrkiye de ge\u00e7en hafta \u0130ran’dan petrol al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kat\u0131ld\u0131. K\u0130TLELER SOKA\u011eA \u00c7IKAB\u0130L\u0130R <\/strong>Petrol ihra\u00e7 etmekte kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckler \u0130ran y\u00f6netimini fiyatlarda bir indirim yapmaya itebilir. Bu ise zaten zor durumda olan ekonomiyi daha fazla vurabilir. \u0130ran’\u0131n nispeten \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck (GSMH’n\u0131n % 9’u) miktardaki d\u0131\u015f borcu ve \u00c7in ve Hindistan’\u0131n verdi\u011fi petrol al\u0131m garantisi, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisinin ekonomide \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7alkant\u0131lara sebep olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirse de, son bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde dolar kurunun karaborsada neredeyse % 100 artmas\u0131 ve enflasyonun \u00f6nlenememesi durumun \u0130ran halk\u0131 i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 de parlak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ise yukar\u0131da bahsedilen i\u00e7 siyasal geli\u015fmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde baz\u0131 kesimlerce tahrik edilecek olan halk\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadarkinden \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f kitleler halinde soka\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fclebilmesi ihtimalini ak\u0131llara getiriyor. TEHD\u0130DE DAYALI POL\u0130T\u0130KA <\/strong>D\u0131\u015far\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 her \u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lsalar da \u0130ran rejiminin savunucular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funun fark\u0131ndalar. B\u00f6yle durumlarda b\u00fct\u00fcn kapal\u0131 ve bask\u0131c\u0131 rejimlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi “d\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015fmanlardan kaynaklanan tehditlere” dayal\u0131 bir politika izlemekten ba\u015fka \u00e7are bulam\u0131yorlar: “Zaten \u0130srail (\u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n tabiriyle Siyonist rejim) ba\u015f d\u00fc\u015fman. ABD ve AB \u00fclkelerinin dostane olmayan tutumlar\u0131 ortada. T\u00fcrkiye -son y\u0131llardaki yapmac\u0131k dostluk giri\u015fimlerine ra\u011fmen- emperyalizmin b\u00f6lgedeki ta\u015feronu” (Ali Laricani T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in tam da bu ifadeyi kulland\u0131). “\u0130ran’a bask\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulayan bu devletlere kar\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6lge i\u00e7inden ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan m\u00fcttefikler bulmak \u0130ran’\u0131n en do\u011fal hakk\u0131d\u0131r.” Bu s\u00f6ylemlerin arkas\u0131na s\u0131\u011f\u0131narak bir yandan da muhalefeti sonuna kadar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutuyor, d\u00fc\u015fmanlarla i\u015f birli\u011fi yapmakla su\u00e7luyorlar. B\u00f6ylece rejimin i\u00e7eriden bir halk hareketi neticesinde y\u0131k\u0131lma ihtimalini de ortadan kald\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyorlar.\u015eAH’IN DEVR\u0130L\u0130\u015e\u0130N\u0130 UNUTTULAR <\/strong>\u0130ranl\u0131 y\u00f6neticilerin i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki b\u00fcy\u00fck yanl\u0131\u015f var: Birincisi, bug\u00fcn yanlar\u0131nda bulduklar\u0131 Rusya ve \u00c7in gibi devletlerin her zaman onlar\u0131 destekleyeceklerini san\u0131yorlar. H\u00e2lbuki k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak pazarl\u0131klar -ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Rusya ve \u0130ngiltere aras\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi- sonucunda, hi\u00e7 beklemedikleri bir topyek\u00fbn izolasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilirler. \u0130kinci yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise, bask\u0131yla halk\u0131n hakl\u0131 taleplerini dile getirmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebileceklerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeleri. \u015eah’\u0131n nas\u0131l devrildi\u011fini unutmu\u015f gibiler. GER\u00c7EKLER\u0130 ANLATMAK ZOR <\/strong>\u00dclkesi hem i\u00e7 hem d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 ciddi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa gebeyken, akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u0130ranl\u0131 y\u00f6neticinin, ABD’nin yo\u011fun bask\u0131lar\u0131na direnerek, bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran’la dostane ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye’yi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almamas\u0131 beklenir. T\u00fcrkiye’yi \u0130ran’a yabanc\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, patlamaya haz\u0131r bir saatli bomba g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki Orta Do\u011fu’da bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesis edilmesine hizmet etmez. Gel g\u00f6r ki, cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 koltu\u011funa g\u00f6z dikmi\u015f \u0130ranl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7ilere ve “12. \u0130mam d\u00f6nene kadar yerine vek\u00e2let etmek i\u00e7in” s\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck “Ayetullahlar”a bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi anlatmak \u00e7ok zor.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE’Y\u0130 KAR\u015eILARINA ALMAMALILAR \u00dclkesi ciddi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa gebeyken, akl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u0130ranl\u0131 y\u00f6neticinin, ABD’nin yo\u011fun bask\u0131lar\u0131na direnerek, bug\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran’la dostane ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye’yi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na almamas\u0131 beklenir. B\u00dcY\u00dcK KR\u0130Z KAPIDA VE FARKINDALAR… \u0130ran rejiminin savunucular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizin kap\u0131da oldu\u011funun fark\u0131ndalar. T\u00fcrkiye’yi \u0130ran’a yabanc\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, patlamaya haz\u0131r bir saatli bomba g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki Orta Do\u011fu’da bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n tesis edilmesine hizmet etmez. TOPYEK\u00dbN \u0130ZOLASYON […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13392,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1319"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1319\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13394,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1319\/revisions\/13394"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13392"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}