{"id":1254,"date":"2011-11-15T08:44:52","date_gmt":"2011-11-15T06:44:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1254"},"modified":"2024-03-07T22:35:57","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T19:35:57","slug":"dis-politikada-en-cok-sorulan-5-soru-turkiye-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1254","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f politikada en \u00e7ok sorulan 5 soru (15.11.2011) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Diplomatik Muhakeme sayfas\u0131n\u0131 takip eden okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z, elektronik posta yoluyla \u00e7ok say\u0131da soru y\u00f6neltiyor. Bug\u00fcn, en \u00e7ok merak edilen konular\u0131 be\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131nda toplayarak cevapland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcncel uluslararas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmelere ilgi duyuyor. B\u00f6yle olunca da, Suriye, \u0130ran, K\u0131br\u0131s ve \u0130srail’le ilgili sorular yo\u011funluk kazan\u0131yor. 1- Esad rejimi devrilir mi? Suriye \u00fczerindeki uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Arap Birli\u011fi’nin Suriye’nin \u00fcyeli\u011fini ask\u0131ya almas\u0131, Be\u015far Esad’\u0131n en \u00e7ok g\u00fcvendi\u011fi Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7inde de yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi. Fakat Suriye’ye y\u00f6nelik sonu\u00e7 getirici tedbirlerin al\u0131nabilmesi i\u00e7in Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin de devreye girmesi icap ediyor. Bug\u00fcn itibariyle, Rusya ve \u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin engellemeleri sebebiyle, G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nden sert bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m paketi ge\u00e7irilebilmi\u015f de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca Libya’dan farkl\u0131 olarak, Esad’\u0131 devirmek i\u00e7in bir araya gelmi\u015f, organize ve dikkate de\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte bir silahl\u0131 direni\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn de Suriye’de var olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yine Libya’dan farkl\u0131 olarak, herhangi bir b\u00fcy\u00fck devletin, Esad’\u0131 devirmek i\u00e7in y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek bir asker\u00ee operasyona \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etme niyetini hen\u00fcz ortaya koymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ortada. Suriye muhalefetinin d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fe bel ba\u011flamas\u0131 yersiz. E\u011fer sonu\u00e7 al\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atacaklarsa, bunu Suriyelilerin kendileri yapacak. Bu durumda da, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elinde bulunduran Esad ailesi daha \u00e7ok kan d\u00f6kecek. Kendi halk\u0131na zulmeden bir rejimin uzun s\u00fcre ayakta kalmas\u0131 elbette m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ama Esad’\u0131n devrilmesinden sonra yerine kimlerin ge\u00e7ece\u011fi sorusu da belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. Dahas\u0131, Esad ailesinin \u00fcyeleri \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ka\u00e7salar bile, bu defa Suriye’de farkl\u0131 mezhepler aras\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli bir i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ihtimalini de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz. 2- T\u00fcrkiye Suriye’ye asker\u00ee harek\u00e2t d\u00fczenler mi? Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 \u00e7ok net bir “hay\u0131r”d\u0131r. Esad Rejimi, do\u011frudan T\u00fcrkiye’yi hedef alan bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmezse -ki b\u00f6yle bir haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 oldu\u011funu do\u011frulayan hi\u00e7bir delil yok- T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye’ye m\u00fcdahale etmesi s\u00f6z konusu olamaz. Bunun iki sebebi var. Birincisi; anayasam\u0131za g\u00f6re ancak Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Antla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131n me\u015fru sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 hallerde bir sava\u015f durumu s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Bu ise, T\u00fcrkiye’ye yap\u0131lacak bir silahl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermek, yani “nefsi m\u00fcdafaa” ve BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 “kuvvet kullanma” kararlar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu iki durum haricinde, 1999’da NATO’nun Kosova Harek\u00e2t\u0131’nda oldu\u011fu gibi, insan\u00ee m\u00fcdahale kapsam\u0131nda bir operasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilmesi ise i\u00e7lerinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir koalisyonla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. \u0130kincisi; T\u00fcrkiye’nin hassas ekonomik dengeleri, bir sava\u015f\u0131 kald\u0131rabilecek durumda de\u011fildir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, kimse T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye’ye sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesin. Di\u011fer yandan, Esad Rejimi’nin PKK militanlar\u0131na yeniden destek vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131na ili\u015fkin, istihbarat kaynaklar\u0131nca do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f haberlerin say\u0131s\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bir art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu yolla birilerinin T\u00fcrkiye’yi Suriye’ye kar\u015f\u0131 harekete ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6sterece\u011fi ihtimali y\u00fcksektir. 3- \u0130srail \u0130ran’\u0131 vurur mu? Bu soruyu cevaplamak \u00e7ok zor. Daha \u00f6nce b\u00f6lgemizde Irak ve Suriye’nin n\u00fckleer kapasite elde etmesine izin vermeyen; 1981’de Irak’\u0131n, 2007’de ise Suriye’nin n\u00fckleer tesislerini ani hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla yok eden \u0130srail’in \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda da benzeri bir tutum i\u00e7ine girmesi her zaman ihtimal d\u00e2hilindedir. Zira n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmu\u015f ve n\u00fckleer ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 f\u0131rlatma kapasitesine sahip \u0130ran’\u0131n, \u0130srail’in g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in hayat\u00ee bir tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011fu alg\u0131s\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerince payla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Fakat di\u011fer yandan, b\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran’\u0131n, daha \u00f6nce Irak ve Suriye’nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi hareketsiz kalmayaca\u011f\u0131, elindeki orta menzilli f\u00fczeleri ate\u015fleyebilece\u011fi ve \u00f6zellikle Hizbullah \u00fczerindeki etkisini kullanarak, L\u00fcbnan \u00fczerinden \u0130srail’e cevap verebilece\u011fi de hesaplan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, Irak ve Suriye’ninkilere oranla daha iyi gizlenmi\u015f ve daha iyi korunan \u0130ran’\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerine ABD’nin yard\u0131m\u0131 olmadan \u0130srail’in tek ba\u015f\u0131na yapaca\u011f\u0131 bir taarruzun ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olma \u015fans\u0131 da asker\u00ee uzmanlar aras\u0131nda tart\u0131\u015fma konusu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u0130srail’in tek ba\u015f\u0131na veya ABD ile birlikte b\u00f6yle bir sald\u0131r\u0131 yapmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Fakat bu sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n b\u00f6lgede meydana getirece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Son olarak, Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 silahland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130ran’a bir \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 olmasa bile, orta vadede Basra K\u00f6rfezi’nde Suudi-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimalinin de y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. 4- Malatya’ya yerle\u015ftirilecek radar, \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131? NATO’nun F\u00fcze Kalkan\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde T\u00fcrkiye’nin Malatya’ya yerle\u015ftirmeyi kabul etti\u011fi radar, bir sald\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fil savunma arac\u0131d\u0131r. NATO’nun Lizbon Zirvesi’nde al\u0131nan kararlarda isim zikredilmemi\u015f olsa da, e\u011fer \u0130ran’dan bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olursa, bu radar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek g\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00e7t\u00fcr. As\u0131l sorulmas\u0131 gereken \u015fudur: E\u011fer \u0130srail \u0130ran’a sald\u0131r\u0131r ve \u0130ran bu sald\u0131r\u0131ya f\u00fczelerle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verirse, NATO’nun F\u00fcze Kalkan\u0131, \u0130srail i\u00e7in devreye girer mi? Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 “evet”tir. Her ne kadar \u0130srail NATO \u00fcyesi de\u011filse de, Malatya radar\u0131 ve Akdeniz’e konu\u015flu ABD’nin Aegis s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 seyyar radar gemisi yoluyla elde edilecek veriler, en az\u0131ndan ABD taraf\u0131ndan, \u0130srail’e y\u00f6nelik bir \u0130ran f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bertaraf edilmesi i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Malatya radar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netimi T\u00fcrkiye’nin elinde de\u011fil, NATO Komuta Kontrol sistemindedir. Radar bir kere \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra T\u00fcrkiye, “bu radar benim; istedi\u011fim zaman a\u00e7ar, istedi\u011fim zaman kapat\u0131r\u0131m” deme hakk\u0131na sahip de\u011fildir. Obama, Netanyahu i\u00e7in “yalanc\u0131” demi\u015f olsa da, \u0130srail’in g\u00fcvenli\u011finin sa\u011flanmas\u0131, b\u00fct\u00fcn ABD H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerinin Orta Do\u011fu’daki en \u00f6ncelikli politikalar\u0131ndan biridir. 5- G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s’\u0131n do\u011falgaz \u00e7\u0131kartmas\u0131 engellenebilir mi? Rumlar\u0131n, Do\u011fu Akdeniz’de do\u011falgaz arama ve \u00e7\u0131kartma faaliyetleri, imza atm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 BM Deniz Hukuku S\u00f6zle\u015fmesi’ne g\u00f6re yasald\u0131r. Rum Y\u00f6netimi, son derece ak\u0131lc\u0131 hamlelerle son 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde, S\u00f6zle\u015fme’de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen hukuki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 teker teker atm\u0131\u015f, sondaj yapaca\u011f\u0131 alanla ilgili di\u011fer devletlerle de, M\u00fcnhas\u0131r Ekonomik B\u00f6lge S\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dcstelik 300 milyar metrek\u00fcp oldu\u011fu hesap edilen do\u011falgaz rezervleri, ABD, Fransa, \u0130talya ve Rusya gibi devletlerin de i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 kabartmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, Rum Y\u00f6netimi’nin do\u011falgaz\u0131 KKTC ile payla\u015fmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini ileri s\u00fcrmekte hakl\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrk ve Rum taraflar aras\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde elbette bu konu da ele al\u0131nacakt\u0131r. Fakat anlamakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131m husus, T\u00fcrkiye’nin neden h\u00e2l\u00e2 Akdeniz’de M\u00fcnhas\u0131r Ekonomik B\u00f6lge ilan ederek, Rumlardan \u00e7ok daha yo\u011fun bir arama ve sondaj faaliyetine giri\u015fmedi\u011fidir. KKTC ile bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce New York’ta imzalanan K\u0131ta Sahanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Payla\u015f\u0131m Antla\u015fmas\u0131 bile, h\u00e2l\u00e2 TBMM taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmemi\u015ftir. Ankara’n\u0131n yapmas\u0131 gereken, ba\u015far\u0131 \u015fans\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan, “AB \u00fcyesi Rumlar\u0131n do\u011falgaz \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye” \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmakla vaktini harcamak yerine, Do\u011fu Akdeniz’deki bu muazzam pastadan en b\u00fcy\u00fck dilimi nas\u0131l al\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n hesab\u0131n\u0131 yapmak ve sonu\u00e7 al\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atmak olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Diplomatik Muhakeme sayfas\u0131n\u0131 takip eden okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z, elektronik posta yoluyla \u00e7ok say\u0131da soru y\u00f6neltiyor. Bug\u00fcn, en \u00e7ok merak edilen konular\u0131 be\u015f ba\u015fl\u0131k alt\u0131nda toplayarak cevapland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Okuyucular\u0131m\u0131z daha \u00e7ok g\u00fcncel uluslararas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmelere ilgi duyuyor. B\u00f6yle olunca da, Suriye, \u0130ran, K\u0131br\u0131s ve \u0130srail’le ilgili sorular yo\u011funluk kazan\u0131yor. 1- Esad rejimi devrilir mi? Suriye \u00fczerindeki uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13591,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1254"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1254\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}