{"id":1188,"date":"2011-06-14T16:14:10","date_gmt":"2011-06-14T13:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1188"},"modified":"2024-03-07T22:56:54","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T19:56:54","slug":"prof-dr-cagri-erhan-2018e-girerken-turkiye-ab-iliskileri-turkiye-gazetesiyilin-son-gunlerinde-geride-birakilan-yilin-muhasebesini-yapmak-ve-gelecege-donuk-degerlendirmelerde-bulunmak-adet-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1188","title":{"rendered":"Suriye’de \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in kilit rol T\u00fcrkiye’nin (14.06.2011) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

KATL\u0130AM KORKUSUYLA KA\u00c7IYORLAR Suriye’de asker\u00ee birliklerin tank ve helikopterler e\u015fli\u011finde ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n katliama d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinden korkan 7 binden fazla Suriyeli s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 a\u015farak, T\u00fcrkiye’ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ankara, bu say\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde on binleri bulmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor. TEPK\u0130LER \u00c7OK CILIZ G\u00fcney kom\u015fumuzda ya\u015fanmakta olan insanl\u0131k dram\u0131 giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, uluslararas\u0131 alanda Suriye y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen tepkiler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m istekleri son derece c\u0131l\u0131z ve etkisiz kal\u0131yor. \u00d6NEML\u0130 G\u00d6REV Yumu\u015fak ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminde; T\u00fcrkiye, hem Suriye muhalefetinin “\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131”, hem de Esad’\u0131n kontroll\u00fc bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecini y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi i\u00e7in ABD ile isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde ad\u0131mlar atacakt\u0131r. Suriye’de tablo giderek k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fiyor. “Yeni Hama’lar olmas\u0131n” \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Suriye silahl\u0131 kuvvetleri ba\u015fta 120 polisin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Cisr E\u015f \u015eu\u011fur kasabas\u0131 olmak \u00fczere, muhaliflerin yo\u011fun olarak bulundu\u011fu yerlere aral\u0131ks\u0131z bi\u00e7imde operasyonlar d\u00fczenliyor. Tanklar ve silahl\u0131 helikopterlerin de kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 operasyonlarda hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybeden sivillerin say\u0131s\u0131 her ge\u00e7en saat art\u0131yor. \u00dclkedeki kaostan ka\u00e7an 7 binden fazla Suriyeli s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 a\u015farak, T\u00fcrkiye’ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ankara, bu say\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde on binleri bulmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor. \u0130nsanl\u0131k dram\u0131 giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, uluslararas\u0131 alanda Suriye y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen tepkiler son derece c\u0131l\u0131z ve etkisiz kal\u0131yor. BM’N\u0130N KARAR ALMASI ZOR Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) Genel Sekreteri Ban Ki Moon, Suriye’ye yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir karar tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyelerinin \u00e7o\u011fu bu y\u00f6nde bir karara “evet” oyu vermeyeceklerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koyuyorlar. ABD, \u0130ngiltere, Fransa, Almanya ve Portekiz karar tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, \u00c7in ve Rusya tasar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yer al\u0131yorlar. Bu iki \u00fclkenin de, “veto” ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, mevcut haliyle tasar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Di\u011fer taraftan, Brezilya, L\u00fcbnan, G\u00fcney Afrika ve Hindistan da, Ban Ki Moon’un haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 metindeki baz\u0131 ifadelerin de\u011fi\u015fmesini istiyorlar. BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nde bu manzaran\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sebebi, Libya’ya ili\u015fkin al\u0131nan karar\u0131n, Fransa’n\u0131n oldu-bittisiyle, bir asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleye dayanak olarak kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Dahas\u0131 1973 say\u0131l\u0131 karar \u00e7ok net bir bi\u00e7imde, Libya’n\u0131n egemenli\u011fine, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne sayg\u0131dan s\u00f6z ederken ve Kaddafi rejiminin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131na dair bir ifade i\u00e7ermezken, NATO operasyonun bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fi noktan\u0131n Kaddafi’yi devirmek olmas\u0131 bir\u00e7ok devlet taraf\u0131ndan ele\u015ftiriliyor. 1973 say\u0131l\u0131 karar\u0131n keyfi bi\u00e7imde, NATO’nun Libya’ya her t\u00fcrl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalesinin me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen Rusya ve \u00c7in, ayn\u0131 durumun Suriye i\u00e7in de ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemediklerinden temkinli davran\u0131yorlar. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u015eam y\u00f6netimine yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7aba g\u00f6steren \u00fclkeler de, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Libya olaylar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki tutumlar\u0131yla mukayese edildi\u011finde, yava\u015f davran\u0131yorlar. Bu yava\u015f ve etkisiz tutumun arkas\u0131nda iki sebep yat\u0131yor. Birincisi, Libya operasyonu hen\u00fcz ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmam\u0131\u015f ve NATO i\u00e7inde ciddi k\u0131r\u0131lmalara yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015fken, yeni bir maceraya at\u0131lmak istememeleri. \u0130kinci sebep ise, e\u011fer a\u011f\u0131r yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015eam y\u00f6netimi devrilirse, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek belirsizli\u011fin b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na zarar verece\u011fi endi\u015fesi. Suriye’den AB \u00fclkelerine d\u00f6n\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fck bir m\u00fclteci ak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 ve \u00fclkenin petrol rezervlerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi unsurlar da, bu tavr\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131nda etken. SUR\u0130YE \u0130\u00c7\u0130N 3 SENARYO Be\u015far Esad’\u0131n artan bi\u00e7imde dile getirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler, BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerinin karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca istifade etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Esed, y\u00f6netime kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele edenlerin asl\u0131nda “k\u00f6ktendinciler” ve “ter\u00f6ristler” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek, \u00fclkesinin belirsiz bir gelece\u011fe s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmemesi i\u00e7in kendisine destek verilmesini istiyor. Bu noktada, bilhassa kendisinden sonra iktidara ge\u00e7eceklerin, \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir tutum i\u00e7ine girebilecekleri, bunun da Orta Do\u011fu Bar\u0131\u015f S\u00fcreci’ni tamamen yok edebilece\u011fi iddias\u0131n\u0131 savunmaktan geri durmuyor.\u0130nsani kriz b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, Suriye’yle ilgili \u00fc\u00e7 senaryodan bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Birincisi ve en zay\u0131f ihtimalli senaryo, BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nde al\u0131nacak sert bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Be\u015far Esad’\u0131n g\u00f6revini b\u0131rakmas\u0131. Bu ihtimalin zay\u0131f olmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli sebebi, G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyelerinin kendi aralar\u0131nda b\u00f6yle sert bir karar \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmamas\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, Libya \u00f6rne\u011finin de g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, asker\u00ee m\u00fcdahale se\u00e7ene\u011fi bile y\u00f6netimlerin kolay kolay de\u011fi\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131yor. \u0130kinci senaryo, BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi’nin Suriye’ye, sivillere kar\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131, insan haklar\u0131 ve demokrasi alan\u0131nda k\u00f6kl\u00fc reformlar yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131da bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Esad y\u00f6netiminin, \u00fclkesine g\u00f6nderilebilecek uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler nezaretinde baz\u0131 olumlu ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131. Bu senaryonun i\u015flemesi de \u00e7ok kolay de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kozmetik reform ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonra Suriye halk\u0131n\u0131 tatmin etmesi s\u00f6z konusu olamaz. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in ve Rusya’n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7ermese de, “demokrasi” ve “insan hak-lar\u0131”ndan bahseden b\u00f6yle bir karara olumlu yakla\u015fmalar\u0131 da zor. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE’YE K\u0130L\u0130T ROL \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo ise, ABD ve Bat\u0131 Avrupa devletlerinin, bir yandan Suriye’deki bask\u0131 rejimini ele\u015ftirirken, di\u011fer yandan da, kapal\u0131 kap\u0131lar ard\u0131nda Esad’la anla\u015fmalar\u0131. Bu senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri bir s\u00fcre daha, Esad’\u0131n \u00fclkesini y\u00f6netmesine g\u00f6z yumacak. Bu s\u0131rada, Suriye’nin tamamen \u0130ran’dan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131, L\u00fcbnan’daki rol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131f\u0131rlamas\u0131 ve \u0130srail’le bar\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecine girmesinin yollar\u0131 aranacak. Suriye muhalefeti de, T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden, Bat\u0131’n\u0131n denetimine al\u0131narak, Esad’\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 reformlara destek vermesi sa\u011flanacak. Muhalefet hem Esad \u00fczerinde her an harekete ge\u00e7irilebilecek bir tehdit unsuru olarak tutulacak, hem de yava\u015f yava\u015f Esad sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanacak. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Bat\u0131’yla bar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, radikal unsurlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 S\u00fcnni a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131, \u0130srail’e d\u00fc\u015fman olmayan, \u0130ran’la aras\u0131na mesafe koymu\u015f yeni Suriye y\u00f6netimi in\u015fa edilecek. Bu senaryodaki kilit rol T\u00fcrkiye’ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye, hem Suriye muhalefetinin “\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda”, hem de Esad’\u0131n kontroll\u00fc bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecini y\u00fcr\u00fctmesinde, ABD ile isti\u015fare i\u00e7inde ad\u0131mlar atacak. Elbette, yukar\u0131daki \u00fc\u00e7 senaryonun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da geli\u015fmeler olabilir. Ama Libya’dakinin aksine, Suriye’de Bat\u0131’n\u0131n kontroll\u00fc bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci i\u015fletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz. Esad rejimi mutlaka sona erecek. Ama bunun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmek ger\u00e7ekten zor.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

KATL\u0130AM KORKUSUYLA KA\u00c7IYORLAR Suriye’de asker\u00ee birliklerin tank ve helikopterler e\u015fli\u011finde ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n katliama d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesinden korkan 7 binden fazla Suriyeli s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 a\u015farak, T\u00fcrkiye’ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ankara, bu say\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde on binleri bulmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor. TEPK\u0130LER \u00c7OK CILIZ G\u00fcney kom\u015fumuzda ya\u015fanmakta olan insanl\u0131k dram\u0131 giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, uluslararas\u0131 alanda Suriye y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen tepkiler ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m istekleri […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13637,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}