{"id":1171,"date":"2011-05-17T14:11:58","date_gmt":"2011-05-17T11:11:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1171"},"modified":"2024-03-07T22:59:54","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T19:59:54","slug":"prof-dr-cagri-erhan-2018e-girerken-turkiye-ab-iliskileri-turkiye-gazetesiyilin-son-gunlerinde-geride-birakilan-yilin-muhasebesini-yapmak-ve-gelecege-donuk-degerlendirmelerde-bulunmak-adet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/?p=1171","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa Birli\u011fi bilinmez bir gelece\u011fe s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor (17.05.2011) T\u00fcrkiye Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

SORU \u0130\u015eARETLER\u0130<\/span><\/p>\n

Euro ve Schengen alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kimilerine g\u00f6re “esnetilmesi”, kimilerine g\u00f6reyse “daralt\u0131lmas\u0131”, Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretlerinin kafalarda olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. POP\u00dcL\u0130ST S\u0130YAS\u0130LER Ortak para biriminden vazge\u00e7en ve \u00fclkelerini yeniden s\u0131n\u0131r kontrol noktalar\u0131yla birbirlerinden ay\u0131ran AB gemisi, pop\u00fclist siyasilerin kaptanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bilinmez bir gelece\u011fe do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. Avrupa Birli\u011fi’ni (AB), d\u00fcnyada \u00f6rneklerine \u00e7ok rastlanan serbest ticaret b\u00f6lgelerinden farkl\u0131 k\u0131lan iki \u00f6nemli ay\u0131rt edici \u00f6zelli\u011fi, Euro ve Schengen (\u015eengen) alanlar\u0131d\u0131r. 27 AB \u00fcyesinden 17’si, ‘Maastricht Yak\u0131nla\u015fma Kriterleri’ ad\u0131 verilen kurallara uymak suretiyle, kendi mill\u00ee para birimleri yerine, AB’nin para birimi olarak bilinen Euro’yu kullanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. \u0130ngiltere, \u0130rlanda, Romanya, Bulgaristan ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s Rum Kesimi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki AB \u00fcyeleri ise Schengen Alan\u0131’na kat\u0131lmak suretiyle, AB’nin ortak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde, ‘ki\u015filerin serbest dola\u015f\u0131m\u0131’ ilkesine sayg\u0131 g\u00f6stermeyi ve ‘ortak vize’ kullanmay\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcmlenmi\u015flerdir. AB \u00fcyesi olmayan \u0130zlanda, Norve\u00e7, \u0130svi\u00e7re ve Lihten\u015ftayn da anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalayarak, Schengen Alan\u0131’na kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, hem Euro hem de Schengen alan\u0131 son derece zorlu bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7mektedir. Baz\u0131 AB \u00fcyelerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi giri\u015fimlerin s\u00fcrmesi halinde, ‘AB’yi AB yapan’ bu iki alan\u0131n da ciddi anlamda zarar g\u00f6rmesi neticesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecektir. KARA BULUTLAR Avrupa Toplulu\u011fu Antla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131n 121. maddesinde say\u0131lan d\u00f6rt ‘yak\u0131nla\u015fma kriteri’ Euro alan\u0131na d\u00e2hil olman\u0131n \u00f6n \u015fart\u0131d\u0131r. Bu kriterlere g\u00f6re; Euro kullanmak isteyen \u00fclkenin enflasyon oran\u0131, en az enflasyon oran\u0131na sahip \u00fc\u00e7 AB \u00fcyesinin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n en fazla 1.5 puan fazlas\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r; kamu bor\u00e7 stoku Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la’n\u0131n (GSY\u0130H) %60’\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7memelidir; kamunun b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, GSY\u0130H’n\u0131n %3’\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fmamal\u0131d\u0131r; Euro alan\u0131na kat\u0131lmadan \u00f6nceki son iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde para biriminin deval\u00fce edilmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 gerekir; uzun vadeli faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n, en az faiz oran\u0131na sahip \u00fc\u00e7 AB \u00fcyesinin ortalamas\u0131ndan en fazla %2 fazla olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn ba\u015fta Yunanistan olmak \u00fczere, baz\u0131 AB \u00fcyelerinin s\u00f6z konusu kriterlere uyamamas\u0131, Euro alan\u0131 \u00fczerinde kara bulutlar dola\u015fmas\u0131na sebep oluyor. Yunanistan’\u0131n ya\u015famakta oldu\u011fu ekonomik kriz o kadar derinle\u015fti ki, Almanya’n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ge\u00e7en 7 May\u0131s’ta gizli olarak toplanan AB’nin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fclkelerinin maliye bakanlar\u0131, bu \u00fclkenin Euro alan\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler. Yunanistan’\u0131n 327 milyar Euro tutar\u0131ndaki borcu, \u00fclkenin GSY\u0130H’n\u0131n %153’\u00fcne ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Yani Yunanistan, ‘yak\u0131nla\u015fma kriterleri’nde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen oran\u0131n iki mislinden fazla bir bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc alt\u0131nda. Portekiz ise, Euro alan\u0131 i\u00e7in tehlike \u00e7anlar\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131ran di\u011fer bir AB \u00fclkesi. Portekiz’in borcu, GSY\u0130H’n\u0131n %101’ini buluyor. Euro alan\u0131na d\u00e2hil olmayan ama AB ekonomisini ve Euro’nun de\u011ferini etkileyen bir di\u011fer \u00fclke olan \u0130rlanda da ise bor\u00e7 stoku, GSY\u0130H’n\u0131n % 112’si d\u00fczeyinde. EURO ALANI \u00c7ATIRDIYOR ‘Euro’nun lokomotifi’ olarak nitelendirilen Almanya, Yunanistan’\u0131n Euro alan\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalini yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde tart\u0131\u015fsa da, asl\u0131nda bunun tam bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm sa\u011flamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc savunanlar da var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, yeniden eski para birimi olan Drahmi’yi kullanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 durumunda, Yunanistan’da en az %50 oran\u0131nda bir deval\u00fcasyon bekleniyor. Bu da \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n katlanmas\u0131 ve \u00f6denmesinin imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale gelmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Benzer bir sorunu Portekiz’in de ya\u015famas\u0131 uzak bir ihtimal de\u011fil. Bu noktada, AB bir a\u00e7mazla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Ya Yunanistan ve Portekiz’e daha fazla bor\u00e7 vererek, bu \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilmeleri i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir program yapacaklar, ya da bu iki \u00fclkenin iflas etmesine seyirci kalarak, Euro alan\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131rdamas\u0131na g\u00f6z yumacaklar. Her iki durumda da, Euro’nun istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama sorumlulu\u011fu en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc AB ekonomisi olan Almanya’ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ki, Almanya’da \u00e7ok say\u0131da siyaset\u00e7i, Yunanistan ve Portekiz’e “daha fazla yard\u0131m edilmemesinden” yana g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildiriyor. Bu arada, Almanya’da Euro’dan Mark’a geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in referandum yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan siyaset\u00e7ilerin say\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu da ekleyelim. ‘SINIRSIZ AVRUPA’ HAYAL OLAB\u0130L\u0130R AB Euro krizini a\u015famam\u0131\u015fken, Kuzey Afrika \u00fclkelerinde y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren ba\u015flayan istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k dalgas\u0131 sonucunda AB’ye on binlerce ki\u015finin iltica etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Schengen Alan\u0131’n\u0131n da sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Tamamen i\u00e7 siyasi m\u00fclahazalarla hareket eden Fransa ve \u0130talya y\u00f6neticilerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ba\u015flat\u0131lan Schengen’in g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesi giri\u015fimleri do\u011frultusunda, AB Komisyonu’nun Haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak Zirve toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, yeni birtak\u0131m d\u00fczenlemeler \u00f6nermesine kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, herhangi bir AB \u00fclkesine yasal giri\u015f yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra, Schengen Alan\u0131’nda, hi\u00e7bir pasaport denetimine tabi olmadan, serbest\u00e7e dola\u015fabilmenin engellenebilece\u011fi ihtimali beliriyor. E\u011fer AB’ye \u00fcye \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131r denetimleri ba\u015flat\u0131l\u0131rsa, AB’nin son 20 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi en b\u00fcy\u00fck kazan\u0131mlardan olan ‘s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z Avrupa’ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi, anlam\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kaybedecek. Euro ve Schengen alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kimilerine g\u00f6re “esnetilmesi”, kimilerine g\u00f6reyse “daralt\u0131lmas\u0131”, 1957’de Avrupa Ekonomik Toplulu\u011fu’nun kurulmas\u0131ndan sonra, s\u00fcrekli olarak \u00fcyeler aras\u0131nda daha fazla b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131mlar atan AB’nin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretlerinin kafalarda olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ortak para biriminden vazge\u00e7en ve \u00fclkelerini yeniden s\u0131n\u0131r kontrol noktalar\u0131yla birbirlerinden ay\u0131ran AB’nin, varl\u0131k sebebini kaybedece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, pop\u00fclist siyasilerin kaptanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AB gemisi bilinmez bir gelece\u011fe do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SORU \u0130\u015eARETLER\u0130 Euro ve Schengen alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kimilerine g\u00f6re “esnetilmesi”, kimilerine g\u00f6reyse “daralt\u0131lmas\u0131”, Avrupa Birli\u011fi’nin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fck soru i\u015faretlerinin kafalarda olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. POP\u00dcL\u0130ST S\u0130YAS\u0130LER Ortak para biriminden vazge\u00e7en ve \u00fclkelerini yeniden s\u0131n\u0131r kontrol noktalar\u0131yla birbirlerinden ay\u0131ran AB gemisi, pop\u00fclist siyasilerin kaptanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bilinmez bir gelece\u011fe do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. Avrupa Birli\u011fi’ni (AB), d\u00fcnyada \u00f6rneklerine \u00e7ok rastlanan serbest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13645,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gazete"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cagrierhan.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}